Ways in which coherence is confirmation conducive

Recent works in epistemology show that the claim that coherence is truth conducive – in the sense that, given suitable ceteris paribus conditions, more coherent sets of statements are always more probable – is dubious and possibly false. From this, it does not follows that coherence is a useless notion in epistemology and philosophy of science. Dietrich and Moretti (Philosophy of science 72(3): 403–424, 2005) have proposed a formal of account of how coherence is confirmation conducive—that is, of how the coherence of a set of statements facilitates the confirmation of such statements. This account is grounded in two confirmation transmission properties that are satisfied by some of the measures of coherence recently proposed in the literature. These properties explicate everyday and scientific uses of coherence. In his paper, I review the main findings of Dietrich and Moretti (2005) and define two evidence-gathering properties that are satisfied by the same measures of coherence and constitute further ways in which coherence is confirmation conducive. At least one of these properties vindicates important applications of the notion of coherence in everyday life and in science.     

Which is the real intelligence? A reply to Robinson (1999)

Robinson's ([Robinson, D.L. (1999). The ‘IQ’ factor: implications for intelligence theory and measurement. Personality and Individual Differences, 27, 715–735]) arguments that crystallized intelligence represents the “one valid intelligence factor” are disputed. It is argued that Robinson seriously underestimated the relevance of fluid abilities to “intelligence”, by using an inappropriate criterion for assessing the intelligence-saturation of cognitive ability variables. The relevance of fluid and crystallized abilities to popular, psychometric, and biological conceptions of intelligence is discussed, and the issue of age-related changes in fluid and crystallized intelligence is also addressed.     

循证医学及其在心血管疾病中的应用

循证医学作为一门新兴的学科,对医学的研究和实践将产生越来越大的影响。在循证医学的操作过程中,如何正确评价和应用所获得的证据极为重要。在短短的十几年间,循证医学给心血管疾病的临床实践带来了根本的变化。     

13-18岁青少年表象能力的发展和脑电α波的关系

本研究以188名1318岁青少年为研究对象,采用脑电波超慢涨落分析技术(简称ET),对其12导联脑电波(EEG)进行了记录和分析,并对其表象能力进行了考察。重点探讨了表象能力的发展与脑α波特点之间的关系。结果表明:(1)13～18岁青少年随年龄增长,对表象任务正确反应需要的时间逐渐下降,其反应时变化的转折时期为16岁;(2)男女生之间差异不显著;(3)在句图匹配和心理旋转作业中好组10Hzα波的比率均高于差组,其它频率差异不显著,说明表象能力好组与占主频的α波相联系。     

Diversity-Based Reasoning in Children

One of the hallmarks of inductive reasoning by adults is the diversity effect, namely that people draw stronger inferences from a diverse set of evidence than from a more homogenous set of evidence. However, past developmental work has not found consistent diversity effects with children age 9 and younger. We report robust sensitivity to diversity in children as young as 5, using everyday stimuli such as pictures of objects with people. Experiment 1 showed the basic diversity effect in 5- to 9-year-olds. Experiment 2 showed that, like adults, children restrict their use of diversity information when making inferences about remote categories. Experiment 3 used other stimulus sets to overcome an alternate explanation in terms of sample size rather than diversity effects. Finally, Experiment 4 showed that children more readily draw on diversity when reasoning about objects and their relations with people than when reasoning about objects' internal, hidden properties, thus partially explaining the negative findings of previous work. Relations to cross-cultural work and models of induction are discussed.     

Statistical inference based on latent ability estimates

The quality of approximations to first and second order moments (e.g., statistics like means, variances, regression coefficients) based on latent ability estimates is being discussed. The ability estimates are obtained using either the Rasch, or the two-parameter logistic model. Straightforward use of such statistics to make inferences with respect to true latent ability is not recommended, unless we account for the fact that the basic quantities are estimates. In this paper true score theory is used to account for the latter; the counterpart of observed/true score being estimated/true latent ability. It is shown that statistics based on the true score theory are virtually unbiased if the number of items presented to each examinee is larger than fifteen. Three types of estimators are compared: maximum likelihood, weighted maximum likelihood, and Bayes modal. Furthermore, the (dis)advantages of the true score method and direct modeling of latent ability is discussed.     

额区脑波年老化特点及其与某些认知能力的相关性

对１２０名中老年被试（４６－８０岁）,完成双额脑波年老化特点０及其与某些认知能力相关性的研究。认知能力测验共１２项作业,包括４项作业速度和１０项作业成绩共１４项指标。结果表明：（１）双额脑波α峰频率随年老低移,α功率随年老有增加趋势;（２）年老过程３项作业速度与双额α峰频率相关性显著,但仅“图象自由回忆”成绩与双额α峰频率及右额α功率相关性显著。     

中学高年级学生作文能力结构特征的研究

对４９０名高三学生的１８个作文变量的测验资料,运用高阶因素分析法概括出中学高年级学生作文能力结构的三个群因素。第一个是作文能力的因素,它是作文认知活动的各种能力相互作用的一种协调发展程度。第二个是由词汇量、造句等能力组合成的词语能力,它是作文能力结构中的一个活跃因素。第三个是词汇量因素,它独立存在于一阶、二阶因素中,表明它是不同阶段认知活动的一个不可缺的因素。     

Consistent estimation in the rasch model based on nonparametric margins

Consider the class of two parameter marginal logistic (Rasch) models, for a test ofm True-False items, where the latent ability is assumed to be bounded. Using results of Karlin and Studen, we show that this class of nonparametric marginal logistic (NML) models is equivalent to the class of marginal logistic models where the latent ability assumes at most (m + 2)/2 values. This equivalence has two implications. First, estimation for the NML model is accomplished by estimating the parameters of a discrete marginal logistic model. Second, consistency for the maximum likelihood estimates of the NML model can be shown (whenm is odd) using the results of Kiefer and Wolfowitz. An example is presented which demonstrates the estimation strategy and contrasts the NML model with a normal marginal logistic model.This research was supported by NIMH traning grant, 2 T32 MH 15758-06 and by ONR contract N00014-84-K-0588. The author would like to thank Diane Lambert, John Rolph, and Stephen Fienberg for their assistance. Also, the comments of the referees helped to substantially improve the final version of this paper.