Evaluating correlations in studies of personality and behavior: Beyond the number of significant findings to be expected by chance

When large numbers of statistical tests are computed, such as in broad investigations of personality and behavior, the number of significant findings required before the total can be confidently considered beyond chance is typically unknown. Employing modern software, specially written code, and new procedures, the present article uses three sets of personality data to demonstrate how approximate randomization tests can evaluate (a) the number of significant correlations between a single variable and a large number of other variables, (b) the number of significant correlations between two large sets of variables, and (c) the average size of a large number of effects. Randomization tests can free researchers to fully explore large data sets and potentially have even wider applicability.     

Levels of number knowledge during early childhood

Researchers have long disagreed about whether number concepts are essentially continuous (unchanging) or discontinuous over development. Among those who take the discontinuity position, there is disagreement about how development proceeds. The current study addressed these questions with new quantitative analyses of children’s incorrect responses on the Give-N task. Using data from 280 children, ages 2 to 4 years, this study showed that most wrong answers were simply guesses, not counting or estimation errors. Their mean was unrelated to the target number, and they were lower-bounded by the numbers children actually knew. In addition, children learned the number-word meanings one at a time and in order; they treated the number words as mutually exclusive; and once they figured out the cardinal principle of counting, they generalized this principle to the rest of their count list. Findings support the ‘discontinuity’ account of number development in general and the ‘knower-levels’ account in particular.     

Evaluating sources of baseline data using dual-criteria and conservative dual-criteria methods: A quantitative analysis

Scheithauer et al. (2020) recently demonstrated that differences in the source of baseline data extracted from a functional analysis (FA) may not affect subsequent clinical decision-making in comparison to a standard baseline. These outcomes warrant additional quantitative examination, as correspondence of visual analysis has sometimes been reported to be unreliable. In the current study, we quantified the occurrence of false positives within a dataset of FA and baseline data using the dual-criteria (DC) and conservative dual-criteria (CDC) methods. Results of this quantitative analysis suggest that false positives were more likely when using FA data (rather than original baseline data) as the initial treatment baseline. However, both sources of baseline data may have acceptably low levels of false positives for practical use. Overall, the findings provide preliminary quantitative support for the conclusion that determinations of effective treatment may be easily obtained using different sources of baseline data.     

Standard and alternative error theories about moral reasons

An error theory about moral reasons is the view that ordinary thought is committed to error, and that the alleged error is the thought that moral norms (expressing alleged moral requirements) invariably supply agents with sufficient normative reasons (for action). In this paper, I sketch two distinct ways of arguing for the error theorist's substantive conclusion that moral norms do not invariably supply agents with sufficient normative reasons. I am primarily interested in the somewhat neglected way, which I call the alternative route. A reason for this is because it seems a genuine question whether the alternative route towards the substantive conclusion need be as troubling to the moralist as the standard route. My hunch is that it is not. Though the alternative error theory denies justification from genuinely moral acts, it also does so from acts born out of self-interest or immorality. If the alternative theory is true, the moralist can at least hold on to the claim that if genuinely moral considerations fail to provide agents with reasons for action, nothing else (of the sort) does.     

老年人汉语阅读中预测误差成本的产生机制

阅读的认知加工机制随年龄变老只发生了量变还是也产生了质变,是毕生发展研究领域的重要问题。要进行有效的语言处理,读者必须结合已有的经验知识和当前语境对即将出现的信息进行预测加工。因此,要解决上述问题就要回答老年人阅读中预测加工机制发生了怎样变化,即预测误差成本是如何产生的。研究拟采用眼动脑电同步记录技术,在自然阅读过程中实时获取语言处理的行为和神经指标,聚焦老年人预测误差成本的产生机制,主要从副中央凹视觉、工作记忆负荷及语言能力三方面解释预测误差成本产生的原因。研究成果对构建汉语阅读的毕生发展模型有重要意义。     

判断与决策中的证实性偏差

证实性偏差是指个体在决策时, 倾向于有意或无意地寻找支持已有信念、预期或假设的信息和解释, 忽视可能与之不一致的信息和解释。目前, 研究者主要从肯定检验策略、认知失调理论以及错误规避三个方面解释证实性偏差的心理机制。证实性偏差还受到条件性参考框架、任务的抽象性、个体经验以及认知闭合的需要等因素的影响。虽然证实性偏差不能完全消除, 但是可以通过竞争性假设分析法和考虑对立面的方法降低其程度。未来的研究可以从证实性偏差的产生根源、研究范式、群体决策中的证实性偏差以及拓展应用研究这四个方面进行探讨。     

Regression away from the mean: Theory and examples

Using a standard repeated measures model with arbitrary true score distribution and normal error variables, we present some fundamental closed-form results which explicitly indicate the conditions under which regression effects towards (RTM) and away from the mean are expected. Specifically, we show that for skewed and bimodal distributions many or even most cases will show a regression effect that is in expectation away from the mean, or that is not just towards but actually beyond the mean. We illustrate our results in quantitative detail with typical examples from experimental and biometric applications, which exhibit a clear regression away from the mean (‘egression from the mean’) signature. We aim not to repeal cautionary advice against potential RTM effects, but to present a balanced view of regression effects, based on a clear identification of the conditions governing the form that regression effects take in repeated measures designs.     

Transitioning from rich to lean reinforcement as a form of error correction

Discrete trial instruction (DTI) is a ubiquitous tool used by practitioners in early intervention programs. A common approach to correcting errors during DTI involves providing a single prompt of the target response when a mistake is made (i.e., single-response repetition). Modifications to the single-response repetition approach have been developed to improve acquisition; however, these modifications are often aversive techniques (e.g., increased effort, response cost) and may not be preferred by the children or considered socially acceptable by caregivers. We conducted this study to evaluate the use of a transition from rich to lean reinforcement as a form of error correction. We compared the rich–lean condition to the single-response repetition approach during DTI for 4 boys diagnosed with autism. The rich–lean condition was (a) more efficient in improving accuracy in 6 out of 9 tasks, (b) more preferred by all participants, and (c) socially validated by caregivers.     

Exploring the perceptual biases associated with believing and disbelieving in paranormal phenomena

Ninety-five participants (32 believers, 30 disbelievers and 33 neutral believers in the paranormal) participated in an experiment comprising one visual and one auditory block of trials. Each block included one ESP, two degraded stimuli and one random trial. Each trial included 8 screens or epochs of “random” noise. Participants entered a guess if they perceived a stimulus or changed their mind about stimulus identity, rated guesses for confidence and made notes during each trial. Believers and disbelievers did not differ in the number of guesses made, or in their ability to detect degraded stimuli. Believers displayed a trend toward making faster guesses for some conditions and significantly higher confidence and more misidentifications concerning guesses than disbelievers. Guesses, misidentifications and faster response latencies were generally more likely in the visual than auditory conditions. ESP performance was no different from chance. ESP performance did not differ between belief groups or sensory modalities.     

病人安全：概念与实例

病人安全是一个历史性、全球性的问题,各种各样的医疗错误威胁病人安全,至今在医疗保健背景下医疗错误以各种各样的形式在不断的出现。病人安全问题涉及广泛领域,如人力资源(人员培训、留住医疗专业人员)、提高工作绩效、环境安全和风险评估,具体有感染控制、安全使用药品、设备安全、安全的临床规范做法、安全保健环境和病人安全知识的构筑。这些都需要我们从系统论的角度,构建病人安全文化,加以综合治理。