An optimal property of least squares weights in prediction models

In predicting scores fromp > 1 observed scores in a sample of sizeñ, the optimal strategy (minimum expected loss), under certain assumptions, is shown to be based upon the least squares regression weights computed from a previous sample. Letting represent the correlation between and the predicted values , and letting represent the correlation between and a different set of predicted values , where w is any weighting system which is not a function of , it is shown that the probability of being less than cannot exceed .50. The relationship of this result to previous research and practical implications are discussed.     

Age trends in early behavioral predictors of serious antisocial behaviors

A risk group of disruptive boys (N=65) identified in kindergarten was assessed using the same procedures at ages 6–7, 8–9, and 10–11. Criteria used to define the predictors and criterion variable were the same at all assessment times. Severity was addressed by comparing different forms of behaviors, considering the extent of harmful consequences to others (aggressiveness was considered as most harmful, whereas inattention was considered as least harmful), manifestation in multiple settings, and extreme scores (manipulation of cutoff scores). Different assessment strategies (direct observations, ratings) and different informants (trained observers, mothers and teachers) were used. Aggressiveness as rated by mothers was highly stable from age 6 to age 11. Inattention as rated by teachers was stable only from age 6 to age 9, whereas no stability was found for observations of task inappropriate behaviors. Taskinappropriate behaviors observed in mother-child interactions and in multiple settings at age 6–7 were significant predictors of self-reported antisocial behaviors at age 12, but this prediction was not repeated at ages 8–9 and 10–11. Teacher ratings of inattention at ages 6–7 and 8–9 were also significant predictors of self-reported antisocial behaviors at age 12. The predictive power was much lower when mothers' ratings of aggressiveness were used. Findings from the present study support the hypothesis that some antisocial behavior precursors are age dependent, in that they are more characteristic of certain age groups than of others. Implications for the selection of assessment screening procedures are discussed.     

On the relation between demographic variables and neuropsychological test performance

This paper reports a study of the relation between demographic variables and neuropsychological test performance in a sample of 141 normal subjects. A preliminary analysis demonstrated the importance of age, educational level, sex, and Verbal IQ for the prediction of neuropsychological test performance. The main study is a detailed analysis of the relation between these four variables and neuropsychological test performance. The results are presented in the form of standardized regression coefficients and are discussed in relation to the problem of predicting expected premorbid performance in neuropsychological tests.     

Interim Managers: Distinguishing Personality Characteristics of Managers on Short-term Contracts

The use of interim managers by companies is increasing, and reasons for this trend are discussed. A study is reported in which the normative personality make-up of a group of interim managers is compared with that of a general sample of UK managers. Ninety-four interim managers completed the revised PA Preference Inventory (PAPI-N) and the results are compared with those from a general UK managerial sample. Statistically significant differences are reported for 12 out of 20 scales, with nine of the effect sizes ≥ 0.5. Results are also compared with a priori job expert predictions. Of nine predictions that interim managers would differ from the general management norm, seven are consistent with the statistical findings. Practical and methodological implications of the findings, and their relation to the ‘Big Five’, are discussed, together with broader implications for the study of workers in new and emerging forms of employment. The findings are also interpreted in the particular context of interim management roles.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: Robert Shaw Trust in the Balance; Building Successful Organizations on Results, Integrity and Concern Louis H. Janda Psychological Testing: Theory and Applications David Ulrich, Michael R. Losey and Geraldine Lake, (eds) Tomorrow's HR Management: 48 Thought Leaders Call For Change     

Aging and Autobiographical Memory: The Long and Bumpy Road

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue of Journal of Adult Development that deals with the topic of aging and autobiographical memory. Methodological issues, empirical findings, and theoretical frameworks that bear on older adults' autobiographical recall are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on an examination of the factors that underlie the offset of infantile amnesia and the reminiscence bump. An integrative approach to the study of aging and autobiographical memory is proposed that brings together paradigms from experimental psychology, clinical neuropsychology, and neuroimaging.     

On the Psychological Significance of the Euclidean Representation of Implicit Personality Theory

The overall purpose of the present study was to investigate the psychological significance of the Euclidean representation of implicit personality theory (IPT) by testing the predictive usefulness of this representation. Multidimensional scaling analyses of 18 subjects' estimates of assumed trait co-occurences (IPT) gave Euclidean trait-distance matrices which were used to predict the subjects' trait-to-trait inferences. The results showed that: (1) The Euclidean representations of subjects' IPTs can be used to predict ( p < 0.10) most subjects' (14 of 18) trait-to-trait inferences; (2) The similarity between the Euclidean representation of subjects' IPTs was positively correlated (r_s = 0.43, p < 0.001) with the similarity between subjects' trait-to-trait inferences. These results suggest that the Euclidean representation of IPT has some predictive value, and thus, may at least to some extent, be justified and considered as psychologically significant.     

阈下启动与记忆分类

20多年来,阈下启动研究有了重要进展,取得了一系列成绩。不仅研究领域有了明显扩展,研究方法和技术也有了很大改进。更为重要的是,阈下启动研究的结果对记忆结构和分类的理论有重要启示。     

Semantic and episodic predictions of memory for plans1,2,3

Abstract: This study was conducted to investigate the planning process within memory for plans. Experiment 1 examined the effect of self‐involvement on memory for a 1‐day plan, in which approximately half of the 104 undergraduate participants were instructed to assume that the plans were their own while the other half were told only to memorize them. A U‐shaped curve, indicating better recall for morning and evening plans than for afternoon ones, was observed only with the first group. Experiment 2 was designed to further clarify the planning strategies of memory for plans, in which approximately half of the 77 undergraduate participants were asked to imagine executing the plans while the other half were given a more limited strategy. U‐shaped curves were observed in both conditions, with memory performance being higher for the first group. These results are interpreted as indicating that the semantic prediction of future plans conforms to a U‐shaped curve, while the episodic prediction of future plans enhances memory performance.     

反社会变态人格倾向测验的编制与预测性分析

本研究通过编制专用问卷,筛查反社会变态人格高危险人群,为我国征兵心理检测提供有效工具。结果,《反社会变态人格倾向问卷》由168个条目组成,为3维9因子结构,具有很好的信度和效度,符合应征人群的行为特点,预测研究证实是评价反社会变态人格倾向的有效工具。