相继记忆模式：展现情节记忆形成脑机制的窗口

相继记忆模式在记忆形成的脑认知成像研究领域应用广泛,已成为研究者探究大脑形成记忆时活动的主要窗口。该文在介绍相继记忆模式及记忆形成过程的基础上,分析影响相继记忆效应大小和时空分布的因素,最后讨论内侧颞叶及前额叶神经网络中相关脑区如何分工、协同支持情节记忆形成。情节记忆多维度特性导致该神经网络中有关区域表现出不同形式的相继记忆效应,因此,该文提出有效分离这些脑区在记忆形成中如何分工及交互协同关系进行更为重要     

Can Voters Predict Changes in Theor Own Attitudes?

Although scholars have established that voters have unstable preferences (e.g., Converse, 1964; Zaller, 1992) and that they are not accurate when recalling past preferences (e.g., Markus, 1986; Niemi, Katz, & Newman, 1980; Smith, 1984), existing research has not systematically explored whether voters can accurately predict the changing nature of their own opinions. The question of whether whether people recognize the instability of their political preferences was explored in a random sample of Pennsylvania registered voters who were surveyed in August and October 1996, during the presidential election campaign. The first survey elicited respondents' positions on two political issues (welfare reform and the environment) and on the two major candidates, and also asked them to estimate the likelihood that each of these positions would change during the next 2 months. The second survey elicited positions at that time and also asked voters to recall their prior positions. Measured both by expectations and recall, respondents tended to underestimate the degree to which their own positions would change or had changed over time. This research has implications for the use of public opinion polling and more broadly for the practice of democratic politics.     

不同维度特征的共存对归类不确定性特征推理的影响

探讨在归类不确定的情境下,目标特征和预测特征的共存对特征推理的影响。共包括了三个实验,其中实验1、2考察了非靶类别中目标特征和预测特征的共存性对特征推理的影响,实验3考察了靶类别中目标特征和预测特征的共存性对特征推理的影响。三个实验五个分实验的结果一致支持了修正后的Bayesian规则,排除了“单类说”、“综合条件概率模型”的假设,并进一步修正了Bayesian规则为：     

童年期抑郁情绪发展的异质性与可预测性:2年追踪研究

以儿童抑郁量表为研究工具,对小学3到4年级771名儿童进行了2年的追踪研究。采用潜类别增长模型和终端结局潜发展模型,分别考察了童年期儿童抑郁情绪发展的亚群组类型,以及儿童抑郁情绪的发展特征对观察期结束时抑郁情绪的预测作用。结果表明：（1）童年期儿童的抑郁情绪发展呈现出三种不同的亚类型,即抑郁高风险组、抑郁低风险组和抑郁自愈组,各类型组人数比例分别为9.6%、53.4%和36.8%;（2）童年期儿童抑郁情绪的初始水平及其发展变化率均可以显著预测观察期结束时的抑郁情绪状况。童年期儿童抑郁情绪的早期监测工作有着重要的实践意义。     

On the Psychological Significance of the Euclidean Representation of Implicit Personality Theory

The overall purpose of the present study was to investigate the psychological significance of the Euclidean representation of implicit personality theory (IPT) by testing the predictive usefulness of this representation. Multidimensional scaling analyses of 18 subjects' estimates of assumed trait co-occurences (IPT) gave Euclidean trait-distance matrices which were used to predict the subjects' trait-to-trait inferences. The results showed that: (1) The Euclidean representations of subjects' IPTs can be used to predict ( p < 0.10) most subjects' (14 of 18) trait-to-trait inferences; (2) The similarity between the Euclidean representation of subjects' IPTs was positively correlated (r_s = 0.43, p < 0.001) with the similarity between subjects' trait-to-trait inferences. These results suggest that the Euclidean representation of IPT has some predictive value, and thus, may at least to some extent, be justified and considered as psychologically significant.     

Best linear prediction of composite universe scores

The problem of predicting universe scores for samples of examinees based on their responses to samples of items is treated. A general measurement procedure is described in which multiple test forms are developed from a table of specifications and each form is administered to a different sample of examinees. The measurement model categorizes items according to the cells of such a table, and the linear function derived for minimizing error variance in prediction uses responses to these categories. In addition, some distinctions are drawn between aspects of the approach taken here and the familiar regressed score estimates.The author thanks Robert L. Brennan, Michael J. Kolen, and Richard Sawyer for helpful comments and corrections, and anonymous reviewers for suggested improvements.     

An optimal property of least squares weights in prediction models

In predicting scores fromp > 1 observed scores in a sample of sizeñ, the optimal strategy (minimum expected loss), under certain assumptions, is shown to be based upon the least squares regression weights computed from a previous sample. Letting represent the correlation between and the predicted values , and letting represent the correlation between and a different set of predicted values , where w is any weighting system which is not a function of , it is shown that the probability of being less than cannot exceed .50. The relationship of this result to previous research and practical implications are discussed.     

Interim Managers: Distinguishing Personality Characteristics of Managers on Short-term Contracts

The use of interim managers by companies is increasing, and reasons for this trend are discussed. A study is reported in which the normative personality make-up of a group of interim managers is compared with that of a general sample of UK managers. Ninety-four interim managers completed the revised PA Preference Inventory (PAPI-N) and the results are compared with those from a general UK managerial sample. Statistically significant differences are reported for 12 out of 20 scales, with nine of the effect sizes ≥ 0.5. Results are also compared with a priori job expert predictions. Of nine predictions that interim managers would differ from the general management norm, seven are consistent with the statistical findings. Practical and methodological implications of the findings, and their relation to the ‘Big Five’, are discussed, together with broader implications for the study of workers in new and emerging forms of employment. The findings are also interpreted in the particular context of interim management roles.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: Robert Shaw Trust in the Balance; Building Successful Organizations on Results, Integrity and Concern Louis H. Janda Psychological Testing: Theory and Applications David Ulrich, Michael R. Losey and Geraldine Lake, (eds) Tomorrow's HR Management: 48 Thought Leaders Call For Change     

Aging and Autobiographical Memory: The Long and Bumpy Road

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue of Journal of Adult Development that deals with the topic of aging and autobiographical memory. Methodological issues, empirical findings, and theoretical frameworks that bear on older adults' autobiographical recall are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on an examination of the factors that underlie the offset of infantile amnesia and the reminiscence bump. An integrative approach to the study of aging and autobiographical memory is proposed that brings together paradigms from experimental psychology, clinical neuropsychology, and neuroimaging.