What Goes Up Apparently Needn't Come Down: Asymmetric Predictions of Ascent and Descent in Rankings

In eight studies, we document an upward mobility bias, or a tendency to predict that a rise in rankings is more likely than a decline. This asymmetry was observed in predictions of classroom performance, NBA and NFL standings, business school rankings, and employee performance rankings. The bias was found for entities people care about and want to see improve their standing, as well as entities in which people are not invested. It appears to result from people's tendency to give considerable weight to a focal agent's intentions and motivation, but to give less weight to the intentions of competitors and other factors that would thwart the focal agent's improvement. We show that this bias is most pronounced for implicit incremental theorists, who believe that performance is malleable (and hence assign more weight to intentions and effort). We discuss implications of this asymmetry for decision making and for an understanding of the underdog bias. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling Interactions Between Latent Variables in Research on Type D Personality: A Monte Carlo Simulation and Clinical Study of Depression and Anxiety

Several approaches exist to model interactions between latent variables. However, it is unclear how these perform when item scores are skewed and ordinal. Research on Type D personality serves as a good case study for that matter. In Study 1, we fitted a multivariate interaction model to predict depression and anxiety with Type D personality, operationalized as an interaction between its two subcomponents negative affectivity (NA) and social inhibition (SI). We constructed this interaction according to four approaches: (1) sum score product; (2) single product indicator; (3) matched product indicators; and (4) latent moderated structural equations (LMS). In Study 2, we compared these interaction models in a simulation study by assessing for each method the bias and precision of the estimated interaction effect under varying conditions. In Study 1, all methods showed a significant Type D effect on both depression and anxiety, although this effect diminished after including the NA and SI quadratic effects. Study 2 showed that the LMS approach performed best with respect to minimizing bias and maximizing power, even when item scores were ordinal and skewed. However, when latent traits were skewed LMS resulted in more false-positive conclusions, while the Matched PI approach adequately controlled the false-positive rate.     

Dynamic Simulation and Static Matching for Action Prediction: Evidence From Body Part Priming

Accurately predicting other people's actions may involve two processes: internal real‐time simulation (dynamic updating) and matching recently perceived action images (static matching). Using a priming of body parts, this study aimed to differentiate the two processes. Specifically, participants played a motion‐controlled video game with either their arms or legs. They then observed arm movements of a point‐light actor, which were briefly occluded from view, followed by a static test pose. Participants judged whether this test pose depicted a coherent continuation of the previously seen action (i.e., “action prediction task”). Evidence of dynamic updating was obtained after compatible effector priming (i.e., arms), whereas incompatible effector priming (i.e., legs) indicated static matching. Together, the results support action prediction as engaging two distinct processes, dynamic simulation and static matching, and indicate that their relative contributions depend on contextual factors like compatibility of body parts involved in performed and observed action.     

对信息源的正向跟随倾向对决策效果的影响*

采用实验研究的方法,检验了二元选择情形下高准确率信息源(准确率x >50%)和低准确率信息源(准确率为1?x)对决策者预测效果的影响。尽管从逻辑上二者从准确率层面具有完全相等的信息价值,然而研究结果显示,决策者更倾向于采用正向跟随而非逆向跟随的方式处理来自信息源的信息。这导致低准确信息源的价值未能得以充分利用。学习和信息源的规范性对该信息处理倾向起到调节作用。     

Does prospective memory influence quality of life in community-dwelling older adults?

Older adults commonly experience declines in prospective memory, which describes one’s ability to “remember to remember,” and can adversely affect instrumental activities of daily living and healthcare compliance. However, the extent to which prospective memory failures may influence quality of life in typically aging older adults is not well understood. One-hundred and four community-dwelling older Australians (aged 50 to 82 years) were administered a comprehensive, neuropsychological battery that included the Memory for Intentions Screening Test (MIST), Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Questionnaire (IADLQ), and World Health Organization Quality of Life-8 (WHOQOL-8). Multiple regressions controlling for negative affect, medical comorbidities, and other neurocognitive functions revealed an interaction between prospective memory and instrumental activities of daily living in the concurrent prediction of quality of life. Among the 39 older adults who reported multiple problems on the IADLQ, lower performance-based prospective memory (MIST) and higher self-reported prospective memory failures in daily life (PRMQ) were significantly associated with lower quality of life (WHOQOL-8). Conversely, no significant associations were observed between prospective memory and quality of life in the 65 participants without IADL problems. Prospective memory difficulties adversely impact quality of life in community-dwelling older adults who experience problems independently managing their instrumental activities of daily living. These findings extend prior literature showing that prospective memory plays a unique role in the real-world outcomes of older adults and clinical populations and highlight the need to develop effective strategies to enhance prospective memory functioning in these vulnerable groups.     

Adult age differences in subjective and objective measures of strategy use on a sequentially cued prediction task

Differences in strategy use are thought to underlie age-related performance deficits on many learning and decision-making tasks. Recently, age-related differences in learning to make predictions were reported on the Triplets Prediction Task (TPT). Notably, deficits appeared early in training and continued with experience. To assess if age differences were due to early strategy use, neural networks were used to objectively assess the strategies implemented by participants during Session 1. Then, the relationship between these strategies and performance was examined. Results revealed that older adults were more likely to implement a disadvantageous strategy early in learning, and this led to poorer task performance. Importantly, the relationship between age and task performance was partially mediated by early strategy use, suggesting that early strategy selection played a role in the lower quality of predictions in older adults.     

Actuarial Criminology: Meeting Current Challenges in Southern Africa

South African prisons were overcrowded by more than sixty-three percent in 2005. Overcrowding and poor prison conditions have enormous implications for rehabilitation efforts made by the South African Department of Correctional Services. The South African White Paper on Corrections (2005) commits the Department of Correctional Services to provide needs-based rehabilitation processes and a framework of continuous evaluation to measure the impact and success of such processes. It also acknowledges that monitoring the rates of recidivism is a critical indicator of the success, the effectiveness of needs-based rehabilitation, and improved service. A reliable system for monitoring recidivism will have to be developed and put in place. In this respect, actuarial criminology can make a vital contribution. This article poses a strategic alternative to the correctional industry in Southern Africa that can be used for the realization of correctional ideals, especially where retribution and overcrowding are still the main features of correctional institutions.     

Predictor Variables Associated with Positive Fast Track Outcomes at the End of Third Grade

Progress has been made in understanding the outcome effects of preventive interventions and treatments designed to reduce children's conduct problems. However, limited research has explored the factors that may affect the degree to which an intervention is likely to benefit particular individuals. This study examines selected child, family, and community baseline characteristics that may predict proximal outcomes from the Fast Track intervention. The primary goal of this study was to examine predictors of outcomes after 3 years of intervention participation, at the end of 3rd grade. Three types of proximal outcomes were examined: parent-rated aggression, teacher-rated oppositional–aggressive behavior, and special education involvement. The relation between 11 risk factors and these 3 outcomes was examined, with separate regression analyses for the intervention and control groups. Moderate evidence of prediction of outcome effects was found, although none of the baseline variables were found to predict all 3 outcomes, and different patterns of prediction emerged for home versus school outcomes.     

年龄、焦虑与情节记忆之内容与来源的关系

将情节记忆区分为内容记忆和来源记忆,筛选年老和年轻的高、低特质焦虑者完成记忆任务,以探讨情节记忆年老化的选择性和变异性及其与焦虑之间的联系。两项实验结果表明来源记忆是否随增龄而有选择性受损受来源性质影响,与来源呈现方式和来源识记意识性无关。焦虑干扰了老年组的记忆操作,是老年人情节记忆存在个体差异的原因之一;但焦虑对青年组没有不利影响,提示焦虑调节两类记忆的年龄差异。     

Episodic memory and the hippocampus: it's about time

Several recent studies have sought to develop animal models of episodic memory, the capacity to recollect unique personal experiences. However, these studies have not yet provided unambiguous evidence that this capacity is based on recollection of the learning episodes. A recent study that examined memory for the ordering of events within unique experiences, and demonstrated a critical and selective role for the hippocampus, suggests a new and promising model for neurobiological analyses of episodic memory.