The Influence of Emotional Prediction on the Other-race Effect in Face Recognition

异族效应(other-race effect) 是一种在面孔加工研究领域中被研究者广为熟之的一种社会性知觉现象。具体而言,就是指个体识别异族面孔的成绩显著低于本族面孔。大量的研究证据表明个体在知觉他人的情绪面孔时,会表现出明显的异族面孔效应。但就目前而言,研究者还不了解自上而下的情绪预期(top-down emotional prediction) 是如何影响面孔识别过程中的异族效应。本研究采用线索-目标范式（cue-target）对该问题进行了考察,实验通过操纵“一致试次”的比率,来区分预期 (75% 的“一致”实验试次) 与非预期实验条件 (50% 的“一致”实验试次)。本实验招募28名健康的大学生被试(12名女性,16名男性)参加正式实验,这些被试无精神疾病、情绪障碍、视力缺陷等疾病。实验后,每一名被试都获得一定的实验报酬。实验结果发现,在正性和负性情绪不预期条件下,个体表现出了对异族面孔的识别劣势,即个体识别异族面孔表情的反应时更长。虽然在负性情绪预期条件下,个体仍然表现出了对异族面孔的识别劣势,但在正性情绪预期条件下,个体对异族面孔的这种识别劣势却消失。这些研究结果表明先前的正性面孔情绪预期有效地消除了异族效应。因此,可以认为自上而下的情绪预期可能是一种促进劣势知觉加工的认知管理策略。     

Breadth versus depth: Cumulative risk model and continuous measure prediction of poor language and reading outcomes at 12

This study examines whether, and how, multiple risks in early childhood are associated with an increased likelihood of a poor language or literacy outcome in early adolescence. Using data from 210 participants in the longitudinal Twins Early Developmental Study, we focus on the following risk factors at age 4: family risk, and poor language, speech, emergent literacy and nonverbal skills. The outcomes of interest at age 12 are language, reading fluency and reading comprehension. We contrast a ‘cumulative risk’ model, counting the presence or absence of each risk factor (breadth), with a model that also considers the severity of the early deficits (depth). A ‘cumulative risk index’ correlated modestly but significantly with outcome (r = 0.32–0.40). Odds ratios confirmed that having many risk factors (3–6) confers a higher probability of a poor outcome (OR 7.86–17.71) than having one or two (OR 3.65–7.28). Logistic regression models showed that predictive validity is not improved by including information about the severity of each deficit. Even with rich information on children's risk status at age 4, we can make only a moderately accurate prediction of the likelihood of a language or literacy disorder 8 years later (Area Under the Curve = 0.74–0.84; Positive Predictive Value = 0.33–0.55, Negative Predictive Value = 0.86–0.91). Taken together, and consistent with the idea of ‘cumulative risk’, these results suggest that the breadth of risk is a core predictor of outcome, and furthermore, that the severity of early deficits does not add significantly to this prediction.     

Constrained Choice: Children's and Adults’ Attribution of Choice to a Humanoid Robot

Young children, like adults, understand that human agents can flexibly choose different actions in different contexts, and they evaluate these agents based on such choices. However, little is known about children's tendencies to attribute the capacity to choose to robots, despite increased contact with robotic agents. In this paper, we compare 5- to 7-year-old children's and adults’ attributions of free choice to a robot and to a human child by using a series of tasks measuring agency attribution, action prediction, and choice attribution. In morally neutral scenarios, children ascribed similar levels of free choice to the robot and the human, while adults were more likely to ascribe free choice to the human. For morally relevant scenarios, however, both age groups considered the robot's actions to be more constrained than the human's actions. These findings demonstrate that children and adults hold a nuanced understanding of free choice that is sensitive to both the agent type and constraints within a given scenario.     

成员关系对协作提取成绩的影响

当人们与搭档组成社会群体一起协作讨论某些已经发生的事件或经验时, 该社会群体中的成员关系对协作提取成绩的影响仍不明确。本研究通过两项实验, 分别使用语词词单和情景故事作为实验材料, 考察成员关系(包括关系类型和关系时长)对协作提取成绩的影响。研究结果表明, 当记忆的材料为语词词单时, 青年陌生组出现了协作抑制; 而当记忆的材料为情景故事时, 青年夫妻和老年夫妻组均出现了协作促进。此外, 老年夫妻在协作提取情景故事的过程中使用的有效交流策略更多, 且这些有效交流策略的使用与更高的协作提取成绩有关。该结果支持了具有长时亲密关系的老年夫妻之间的“交互记忆系统”对协作促进的关键作用, 为理解成员关系对协作提取成绩的影响提供了全面的证据。     

编码和提取水平对儿童绑定加工发展的影响

将情景中的各要素绑定加工成连贯的关系结构,是形成情景记忆的核心过程。本研究使用图像配对联想学习任务,在测试阶段采用自由回忆、线索回忆和再认任务,考察了儿童二元和三元绑定能力的发展及其中编码和提取能力的影响。结果表明,绑定加工能力随年龄增长而提高,二元绑定比三元绑定的发展开始得更早。编码水平对两种绑定能力存在不同影响,5岁儿童已经具有成熟的编码信息进行二元绑定加工的能力;但三元绑定受限于编码缺陷,在6.5岁后才因相应编码能力的缓慢提高而得到少量发展。但在儿童期内,二元和三元绑定同时受到了提取能力发展的促进。     

Remembering the past and imagining the future: attachment effects on production of episodic details in close relationships

Attachment theories and studies have shown that Internal Working Models (IWMs) can impact autobiographical memory and future-oriented information processing relevant to close relationships. According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis (CESH), both remembering the past and imagining the future rely on episodic memory. We hypothesised that one way IWMs may bridge past experiences and future adaptations is via episodic memory. The present study investigated the association between attachment and episodic specificity in attachment-relevant and attachment-irrelevant memory and imagination among young and older adults. We measured the attachment style of 37 young adults and 40 older adults, and then asked them to remember or imagine attachment-relevant and attachment-irrelevant events. Participants’ narratives were coded for internal details (i.e., episodic) and external details (e.g., semantic, repetitions). The results showed that across age group, secure individuals generated more internal details and fewer external details in attachment-relevant tasks compared to attachment-irrelevant tasks; these differences were not observed in insecure individuals. These findings support the CESH and provide a new perspective to understand the function of IWMs.     

Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prospective emotion enables episodic prospection to shift time preference

The episodic effect suggests that episodic prospection (imagining future events) can effectively reduce time discounting, the propensity to discount the value of delayed rewards relative to immediate ones. However, less clear is how episodic prospection modulates time preference. As engagement in episodic prospection usually evokes prospective emotions, it was proposed that episodic prospection might work by inducing prospective emotions. Although one previous study has attempted to provide evidence to the emotional account of the episodic effect, shortcomings in its experimental design make its conclusion questionable. In this study, we replicated previous experimental design with improvements to further test the effects of prospective emotion on time preference. By manipulating the emotional valency associated with episodic prospection in a delay discounting task, we found that positive episodic prospection attenuated time discounting; negative episodic prospection exacerbated time discounting; and episodic prospection did not shift time preference when prospective emotion is removed. These results were essentially identical to the result of the previous study. Together, these studies suggested that the effects of episodic prospection depended on prospective emotion. Thus, one cannot ignore prospective emotion if counting on episodic prospection to combat humans’ impulsive behaviours.     

Prediction during statistical learning, and implications for the implicit/explicit divide

Accounts of statistical learning, both implicit and explicit, often invoke predictive processes as central to learning, yet practically all experiments employ non-predictive measures during training. We argue that the common theoretical assumption of anticipation and prediction needs clearer, more direct evidence for it during learning. We offer a novel experimental context to explore prediction, and report results from a simple sequential learning task designed to promote predictive behaviors in participants as they responded to a short sequence of simple stimulus events. Predictive tendencies in participants were measured using their computer mouse, the trajectories of which served as a means of tapping into predictive behavior while participants were exposed to very short and simple sequences of events. A total of 143 participants were randomly assigned to stimulus sequences along a continuum of regularity. Analysis of computer-mouse trajectories revealed that (a) participants almost always anticipate events in some manner, (b) participants exhibit two stable patterns of behavior, either reacting to vs. predicting future events, (c) the extent to which participants predict relates to performance on a recall test, and (d) explicit reports of perceiving patterns in the brief sequence correlates with extent of prediction. We end with a discussion of implicit and explicit statistical learning and of the role prediction may play in both kinds of learning.     

Self-efficacy and social support as predictors of smoking after a quit attempt

Abstract

The current study examined self-efficacy and social support as predictors of maintenance after an attempt to stop smoking. As in previous studies, self-efficacy at the end of treatment was a significant predictor of reported smoking during the follow-up period. At 3 months after treatment the prediction from self-efficacy was weaker than a prediction from the level of post-treatment smoking. However at 10 months self-efficacy was the strongest predictive variable assessed in the study. In contrast, social support for the quit attempt was not a significant predictor of maintenance at any stage. The results provided qualified support for the contention that self-efficacy can often be a more powerful predictor than previous performance attainments, especially under conditions of greater situational change.