Scientific information and uncertainty: Challenges for the use of science in policymaking

Science can reinforce the healthy aspects of the politics of the policy process, to identify and further the public interest by discrediting policy options serving only special interests and helping to select among “science-confident” and “hedging” options. To do so, scientists must learn how to manage and communicate the degree of uncertainty in scientific understanding and prediction, lest uncertainty be manipulated to discredit science or to justify inaction. For natural resource and environmental policy, the institutional interests of government agencies, as well as private interests, pose challenges of suppression, over-simplification, or distortion of scientific information. Scientists can combat these maneuvers, but must also look inward to ensure that their own special interests do not undermine the usefulness of science.     

政府环境伦理责任论

作为一种特殊经济主体,政府承担着必不可少的环境伦理责任。政府的环境伦理责任是指政府在参与社会经济活动过程中应该为环境保护事业承担的道德责任,它主要是通过政府制定和推行环境政策、法规、规划、标准的情况得到体现的。为了有效地开展环境保护工作,我们应该实行“政府为主,市场为辅”的环保机制。     

Evaluating Environmental Arrangement as Setting Events: Review and Implications for Measurement

Environmental arrangement alters the physical, social, or programmatic aspects of classrooms to increase task engagement, facilitate prosocial behaviors, and reduce or prevent the challenging behaviors of children and youth. Research shows specific arrangements can affect student engagement and deportment, but this literature is not well integrated theoretically or empirically with other effective behavior change tactics. This article proposes that some environmental arrangements may serve as setting events for child behavior change. Setting events and environmental arrangement were defined and critically outlined. A total of 43 physical environmental arrangement articles were reviewed as to the specific type of arrangement and research methodology. Several methodological problems (e.g., lack of measurement or control of antecedents, consequences, or environmental arrangements, manipulation of more than one environmental arrangement) precluded conclusions about the setting event function of environmental arrangements. Suggestions for future research on setting events and environmental arrangements are proposed.     

Making Decisions About Life-Sustaining Medical Treatment in Patients With Dementia

The problem of decision-making capacity in patients with dementia, such as those with early stage Alzheimer's, can be vexing, especially when these patients refuse life-sustaining medical treatments. However, these patients should not be presumed to lack decision-making capacity. Instead, an analysis of the patient's decision-making capacity should be made. Patients who have some degree of decision-making capacity may be able to make a choice about life-sustaining medical treatment and may, in many cases, choose to forgo treatment.     

TREATMENT OF SELF-INJURY AND HAND MOUTHING FOLLOWING INCONCLUSIVE FUNCTIONAL ANALYSES

Numerous studies have used functional analyses to prescribe interventions for severe behavior disorders. The majority of these studies have focused on behavior that is clearly maintained by socially mediated reinforcement, such as contingent access to attention, tangibles, or escape from instructional demands. However, a significant proportion of functional analyses do not yield conclusive results. We examined interventions for 3 children with severe disabilities following inconclusive functional analyses. First, preferred stimuli were identified for each child via a stimulus preference assessment. Second, a functional analysis was conducted for 2 of the 3 children. High rates of aberrant behavior were seen even (if not especially) in no-interaction sessions. The 3rd child was observed for several consecutive no-interaction sessions; behavior persisted in this condition. Third, interventions based on environmental enrichment were analyzed in an analogue setting. For all of the children, environmental enrichment decreased aberrant behavior if preferred stimuli were used in the procedure. To obtain further reductions in aberrant behavior, explicit reinforcement of toy play was required for 2 children, and a brief (5-s) time-out was necessary with 1 child. Finally, effects of treatment carried over to the school or home environment following teacher or family training. Results are discussed in the context of basic reinforcement principles and future directions for research.     

管理人员对影响新产品开发决策宏观动力场因素的认知

在先前一系列研究的基础上,利用问卷考察了管理人员对宏观动力场因素不确定性质的认知,它涉及全国三个地区１２１名管理人员和１５家工厂企业。研究证实了从管理人员角度看,宏观因素变化性的主要维度是波动性、趋势性和时距性,经营信息不确定度、外部管理与招工不确定度、供应与公关不确定度,构成了总的动力场不确定性。最后,研究管理人员的认知结构对新产品开发决策具有的理论意义和实践意义。     

决策策略与个性特征关系的模拟实验

本研究以实验室模拟实验和现场模拟实验为手段,以大学本科生和工厂管理人员为被试,分两部分进行。第一部分,以企业新产品开发为决策内容,考察这类决策情景的不确定性和决策策略的关系。结果发现,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的一一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有被试采用混合型策略,从而验证了先前研究的结果。第二部分,我们考察了决策策略与个性特征的关系。结果发现,偏离决策策略的规定性理论所预测的被试同没有偏离的被试在CPI量表的三种个性特征上,即成熟度、成就动机与管理潜能,有显著性差异;对实验室实验被试和现场实验被试而言,均发现管理潜能这一个性特征一致性的显著影响。文章最后提出了有待进一步探索的课题。     

Genetic counseling for a family with two distinct anomalies: A case report of a neural tube defect and 5p- syndrome in a fetus

A couple presented for genetic counseling because of an elevated maternal serum alpha fetoprotein. Ultrasound examination revealed the presence of a neural tube defect. The couple declined an amniocentesis, but chose serial ultrasound evaluations instead. Ultrasounds eventually identified microcephaly, but the couple continued to decline amniocentesis. After the child's birth, the diagnosis of 5p- syndrome was made. The couple's decision not to have an amniocentesis allowed the family their right to autonomy; however, prenatal chromosome analysis would have provided this couple with a great deal more prognostic information. We discuss the conflict between a counselor's duty to respect a client's freedom vs. duty to care for a client's welfare. We address issues of nondirective counseling and the need for more studies looking at the decision-making process in prenatal diagnosis.     

Binary action based estimation of propensities

An observer is to make inference statements about a quantityp, called apropensity and bounded between 0 and 1, based on the observation thatp does or does not exceed a constantc. The propensityp may have an interpretation as a proportion, as a long-run relative frequency, or as a personal probability held by some subject. Applications in medicine, engineering, political science, and, most especially, human decision making are indicated. Bayes solutions for the observer are obtained based on prior distributions in the mixture of beta distribution family; these are then specialized to power-function prior distributions. Inference about logp and log odds is considered. Multiple-action problems are considered in which the focus of inference shifts to theprocess generating the propensitiesp, both in the case of a process parameter known to the subject and unknown. Empirical Bayes techniques are developed for observer inference aboutc when is known to the subject. A Bayes rule, a minimax rule and a beta-minimax rule are constructed for the subject when he is uncertain about.This research was partially supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Department of Defense and was monitored by ONR under Contract No. N00014-77-C-0095. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Office of Naval Research, or Carnegie-Mellon University.     

TEMPORAL AND CLIMATIC VARIABLES IN NATURALISTIC OBSERVATION1

Home-observation data on 5- to 7-yr-old boys collected over 2 yr were examined for systematic variations in rates of desirable and undesirable behaviors associated with several temporal and climatic variables. Significant effects associated with time of day, day of the week, precipitation, and temperature were found. No significant effects on the naturalistic observation data were found for environmental factors associated with lunar phase. It was noted that the correlational nature of the findings did not obviate the necessity for control of the influence of temporal and climatic variables. Several methodological strategies for such control were discussed.