The relationship between anomalistic belief,misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy

Abstract

A poor understanding of probability may lead people to misinterpret every day coincidences and form anomalistic (e.g., paranormal) beliefs. We investigated the relationship between anomalistic belief (including type of belief) and misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy across both anomalistic and control (i.e., neutral) contexts. Greater anomalistic belief was associated with poorer performance for both types of items; however there were no significant interactions between belief and context. For misperception of chance items, only experiential (vs. theoretical) anomalistic beliefs predicted more errors. In contrast, overall anomalistic belief was positively related to the base rate fallacy but no specific subtype of anomalistic belief was a significant predictor. The results indicate misperception of chance may lead people to interpret coincidental events as having an anomalistic cause, and a poor understanding of base rates may make people more prone to forming anomalistic beliefs.     

Affective commitment,trust, and the psychological contract: contributions matter,too!

ABSTRACT

Employees’ receipt of inducements is associated with trust and affective commitment, and employees pay for their inducements with their contributions (e.g., time, and physical and intellectual effort). Yet this relationship does not fully mirror events as they occur in an employment relationship where employees’ promises and delivery of inducements and contributions are ongoing, and relatively continuous. Our premise is that promising and delivering contributions may enhance or reduce employees’ trust in and commitment to the organization depending on how well they fulfill psychological needs. We tested a social exchange theory model and our alternative model. Survey results favoured our alternative model and suggested that employees’ contributions were related to trust and commitment, independent of the role of inducements. Tests of the social exchange model exhibited worse fit to the data. Breach and fulfilment results from polynomial regression and response surface analyses revealed that commitment was higher when delivered contributions equal promised contributions and declined when delivered amounts were deficient of, or exceeded, promised amounts. Employees’ promised and delivered contributions to organizations may constitute a path to their feelings of commitment, but commitment was highest when delivered contributions were within close range of promised amounts.