Experimental Tests of Risk Ladders in the Elicitation of Perceived Likelihood

Risk ladders have the potential to improve numeric judgments of low‐likelihood events by providing information about the likelihoods of comparison risks, thereby letting respondents make risk estimates “in context.” However, to date this tool has been studied systematically only in communication of risk, not in elicitation of perceived likelihoods. In three studies, we evaluated the benefits of risk ladders on the consistency, validity, and mean‐level accuracy of elicited likelihood judgments. When estimates for low‐likelihood hazards were elicited using different numeric response scales (e.g., “1 in x” and “x in 100,000”), scale type had a strong effect on the magnitudes of the elicited estimates, and viewing a risk ladder (Experiment 1) or comparison risks (Experiments 2 and 3) did not attenuate this effect of scale type. Similarly, we found no evidence that risk ladders or comparison risks improved the convergent validity of numeric estimates, as measured using correlations with risk ratings made on alternative scale types. Finally, viewing comparison risks tended to reduce gross overestimation of rare events, with relatively less change in estimates for mid‐likelihood and high‐likelihood hazards. This suggests that comparison risks can spread responses to cover a wider range of values but do not ameliorate scale effects. In the elicitation of numeric risk estimates, how you ask matters, even if you let people make estimates “in context” through the use of comparative risk information. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Research-Based Guidelines for Child Forensic Interviews

Abstract

We present important considerations for conducting forensic interviews with children who are witnesses to or alleged victims of crime. Specifically, we (a) present the basic principles of the forensic interview and review some of the best structured forensic protocols currently available; (b) provide a detailed, practical blueprint for conducting a structured forensic interview and emphasize how the components of the interview are based upon empirical research; and (c) discuss special con siderations for interviews with children of different age groups and children who have special needs or circumstances, and interviews involving various crime circumstances. We end with suggestions to assist legal and social service professionals in accessing the social science research literature that should inform forensic interview techniques.     

Modeling memory and perception

I present a framework for modeling memory, retrieval, perception, and their interactions. Recent versions of the models were inspired by Bayesian induction: We chose models that make optimal decisions conditioned on a memory/perceptual system with inherently noisy storage and retrieval. The resultant models are, fortunately, largely consistent with my models dating back to the 1960s, and are therefore natural successors. My recent articles have presented simplified models in order to focus on particular applications. This article takes a larger perspective and places the individual models in a more global framework. I will discuss (1) the storage of episodic traces, the accumulation of these into knowledge (e.g., lexical/semantic traces in the case of words), and the changes in knowledge caused by learning; (2) the retrieval of information from episodic memory and from general knowledge; (3) decisions concerning storage, retrieval, and responding. Examples of applications include episodic recognition and cued and free recall, perceptual identification (naming, yes–no and forced‐choice), lexical decision, and long‐term and short‐term priming.     

原型表征对创造性问题解决过程中的启发效应的影响

以32个科学发明创造问题为实验材料, 采用“学习8个原型-测试8个问题”的两阶段实验范式, 通过操纵原型学习条件(是否有标识或插图)考察了原型的知识表征对创造性问题解决的启发效应的影响, 结果发现：1)标识对原型的激活率在无插图水平上有显著影响, 有标识比无标识原型的激活率更高, 在有插图水平上无显著影响; 插图对原型的激活率有显著影响, 有插图比无插图原型的激活率更高。2)标识和插图都对问题解决的正确率有显著影响, 有标识比无标识正确率更高, 有插图比无插图正确率更高。3)标识和插图在原型激活率和问题解决正确率上都存在显著交互作用, 反映出原型启发的思维过程是复杂的, 表现出灵活性、经济性的特点。     

竞争与情绪对顿悟的原型启发效应的影响

以汉字字谜为材料, 采用“原型学习-问题测试”范式, 考察不同竞争水平(高、中、低竞争强度和无竞争)情境下诱发的情绪效价(积极、中性和消极)对顿悟中的原型启发的影响。结果发现：1)竞争水平对字谜问题解决中的原型启发有显著影响, 低强度竞争水平最有利于靶字谜问题的解决, 中等强度和高强度下效果次之, 无竞争条件下效果最差; 2)诱发情绪对靶字谜问题解决的原型启发也有显著影响, 消极情绪和中性情绪下比积极情绪下靶字谜的正确率更高; 3)有无竞争与情绪效价之间的交互作用显著, 体现了竞争和情绪这两种动力相关因素在原型启发中的动力作用不是独立的。     

Modeling ratings of in-vehicle alerts to pedestrian by leveraging field operational tests data in a controlled laboratory study

We show how to leverage expensive field operational tests (FOT) data in a controlled laboratory study when defining an in-vehicle algorithm that alerts drivers to pedestrians. We used an empirical approach that quantifies the relative level with which drivers are likely to accept alerts to pedestrians. The approach was used in two studies to investigate a range of contextual factors known to influence driver ratings of alerts to pedestrians issued by a driver-assistance system. Regression analysis shows that four factors consisting of combinations of pedestrian location and motion relative to the road ahead of the vehicle explain 85% of the variability in drivers’ ratings of alerts. Adding two factors related to the uncertainty of the pedestrians’ future path improves the model slightly. These findings suggest that drivers’ assessment of the danger associated with pedestrians derives largely from the possibility that they might move into the vehicle’s path, even when the vehicle is not on a collision course with the pedestrians. The less probable such an event seems, the less accepted an alert will be. Time to arrival (TTA) improved the regression model only when restricted to pedestrians in clear need of an alert, but was also found to have an effect in alert timing. This finding suggests that four contextual factors largely define the perceptual cues that drivers use to rate alerts to pedestrians.     

Quality of life research: a case for combining photo-elicitation with interpretative phenomenological analysis

In this article, we provide practical and theoretical discussion of the use of two complementary research methods to explore quality of life. We present a case example of the use of photo-elicitation alongside interpretative phenomenological analysis and use examples from our research with people living with paraplegia and chronic pain to demonstrate how these methods can be combined to provide a participant-led understanding of quality of life. This discussion includes consideration of practical and ethical issues relevant to others wishing to combine these research methods. Furthermore, we highlight some of the potential practical and therapeutic opportunities provided by the approach through an illustration of how photographs work to enhance self-reflection and promote hermeneutic sense making.     

试论西方萨满教研究的变迁

西方萨满教研究大体经历了魔鬼化、骗子化、精神病理学化、普遍化、理想化、多样化等几个发展阶段,文章分析了这几个阶段的主要表现,并对西方萨满教历史研究特点进行了反思。     

Changing Meanings Through Art: A Systematization of a Psychosocial Intervention with Chilean Women in Urban Poverty Situation

This study explores the experiences that women in urban poverty situation have about their participation in a psychosocial group intervention mediated by artistic techniques. An investigation was done using a qualitative methodology. Participants were ten women older than 21 years old who live in Santiago de Chile in poverty situation. Two group evaluations were performed during the intervention process and once it was completed, ten individual semi-structure interviews. The information was analyzed following the proposals of Grounded Theory, identifying negative experience about tiredness and sacrifice related to the circumstances they live in. It was possible, at the same time, to describe the benefits of an artistic activity including a psychosocial work over the individual well-being. The artistic creation was revealed as a way of expression, of re-viewing oneself and the environment, and relaxation. Transformation is discussed concerning self-affirmation, reparation and transference of this experience in their lives, as a preventive and protective resource to overcome their problems.     

Comparing the Effects of Unknown-Known Ratios on Word Reading Learning Versus Learning Rates

An extension of G. L. Cates et al. (2003) investigation was conducted to determine if students’ cumulative learning rates would be superior for words read under a traditional drill and practice condition (as they were for spelling in the previous study) than under interspersal conditions of varying ratios of unknown to known words. Participants consisted of three intermediate grade students who were delayed readers. They received a less challenging ratio of unknown to known word (High-P sequencing) interspersal procedure, a more challenging ratio of unknown to known word interspersal training procedure, and a traditional drill and practice procedure in an alternating fashion across several tutoring sessions. Cumulative words read with mastery and cumulative rates of words read with mastery were measured across sessions for each participant under each instructional condition. Findings were consistent with the Cates et al., study revealing that children learn more words per minute of instructional time under the traditional drill and practice condition. These results further support examining instructional efficiency as well as effectiveness when making decisions about selecting and implementing interventions.