An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

ANALYSIS OF A HIGH-PROBABILITY INSTRUCTIONAL SEQUENCE AND TIME-OUT IN THE TREATMENT OF CHILD NONCOMPLIANCE

This study evaluated the effectiveness of high-probability requests and time-out as treatments for noncompliance that appeared to be maintained by contingent attention in 2 developmental normal children. The introduction of high-probability requests increased compliance for 1 child but not the other. Time-out was effective with both children, and improvements in compliance were maintained at an 8-week follow-up.     

ANALYZING ALERTNESS AMONG PEOPLE WITH PROFOUND MULTIPLE DISABILITIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR PROVISION OF TRAINING

We investigated whether variations in alertness among individuals with profound multiple disabilities affected subsequent responsiveness to training programs. Three experiments were conducted involving 5 people. In Experiment 1, results indicated that alertness of 3 individuals increased with provision of skill-acquisition training programs. Results also indicated no predictive relationship between alertness levels prior to training and subsequent responsiveness to training. Experiment 2 replicated results of Experiment 1 with 2 participants from Experiment 1 and an additional participant. Results of Experiment 2 also indicated that the increased alertness levels accompanying provision of training were not a function of the participants simply being in an inactive environment prior to training. Results of Experiment 3 indicated that alertness of an additional participant increased through provision of another training intervention, involving a systematic preference assessment. Responses during the preference assessment appeared to be unrelated to previously existing alertness levels. These findings suggest the need for caution when considering the withholding of scheduled training because an individual appears to be nonalert.     

The “Brightening” Effect: Reactions to Positive Events in the Daily Lives of Individuals With Major Depressive Disorder and Generalized Anxiety Disorder

Depressed individuals are less reactive than healthy individuals to positive stimuli in the laboratory, but accumulating evidence suggests that they are more emotionally reactive to positive events in their daily lives. The present study probed the boundaries of this curious “mood brightening” effect and investigated its specificity to major depressive disorder (MDD) vis-à-vis generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), its closest boundary condition. We used ecological momentary assessment to measure reactions to positive events over one week in individuals with MDD (n = 38), GAD (n = 36), comorbid MDD-GAD (n = 38), and no psychopathology (n = 33). Depressed individuals responded to positive events with larger changes in affect, cognition, reported withdrawal (but not approach) behavior, and symptoms than healthy controls. More severe depression assessed before the sampling week predicted greater brightening. Altered reactivity to positive events was relatively specific to MDD when compared with GAD, similar to patterns found for other positive emotional processes. The robustness, scope, and relative specificity of the brightening effect highlights the need to resolve conflicting findings across laboratory and non-laboratory studies to advance understanding of altered reactivity in emotional disorders.     

Validity of Stimulus and Response Components in a Video Test of Social Competence

Various stimulus components (video, orally-presented questions) and response components (multiple-choice, written, orally-given replies) of situational judgement tests of occupational social competency were investigated as to their impact upon the validity for a behavior-oriented role playing criterion while keeping test content constant. The stimulus component video alone had no impact upon validity. The response components contributed to validity. Validity increased with improved fidelity of response components. Concerning stimulus-response-combinations, the validity of two video tests (r = 0.17 and r = 0.36) was not higher than the validity of similar oral questioning (r = 0.13 and r = 0.37) but was significantly lower than a situational interview (r = 0.59). Response fidelity proved to be a bottleneck regarding validity of video tests. As a result, it is recommended that, in order to maximize validity of video and multimedia efforts, the developers of video- and multimedia tests focus special attention on response fidelity.     

Teachers' and mothers' assessment of children's behaviors from kindergarten to grade two: Stability and change within and across informants

Consistency between teachers' and parents' ratings of 229 children's prosocial and problem behaviors was investigated from kindergarten through grade two. Intrarater stability was also analyzed. Results indicated moderate but decreasing interrater agreement from kindergarten to grade two for boys on externalizing behaviors. Interrater agreement for the same behavior dimension for girls was moderate and stable, whereas it was low on internalizing behavior problems and prosocial behaviors, for both genders throughout the 3-year period. Moreover, difference between teachers' and parents' ratings of externalizing behaviors increased from kindergarten to grade two. Decreasing level of agreement through time appeared to be related to a reduction of teacher-rated externalizing behaviors not paralleled by a reduction in parent ratings. Analyses were also performed at the item level of the externalization scale to identify which specific behaviors were responsible for the increasing divergence in interrater agreement from kindergarten through grade two. Alternative interpretations were considered in order to account for present and past results. Implications for screening and assessment purposes were discussed.This research was supported by grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and from Québec's Health Research Fund (FRSQ). We wish to thank the authorities and directors of the schools from the Val d'Or School Board as well as the kindergarten, first and second grade teachers, children, and parents for their collaboration. We also thank Lyse Desmarais-Gervais, Daniel Corriveau, Jean Desrosiers and Hélène Boileau for their participation in the data collection or analysis.     

A COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF REINFORCER IDENTIFICATION PROCESSES FOR PERSONS WITH PROFOUND MULTIPLE HANDICAPS

We evaluated comprehensively a preference assessment for identifying reinforcers for persons with profound multiple handicaps. Four experiments were conducted involving 18 individuals. Results of Experiment 1 replicated previous findings in that the assessment identified student preferences for respective stimuli, and caregiver opinion of preferences did not coincide with the systematic assessment. Results of Experiment 2 indicated highly preferred stimuli were likely to function as reinforcers in training programs, whereas stimuli not highly preferred did not function as reinforcers. Results of Experiment 3 suggested the 12 stimuli used in the assessment represented a comprehensive stimulus set for identifying preferences, although the utility of the set sometimes could be enhanced by caregiver opinion. Results of Experiment 4 indicated the assessment identified preferences likely to be maintained over time. Overall, results are discussed in terms of identifying limits and alternatives to a behavioral teaching technology when applied to persons with profound multiple handicaps.     

Rescher's Metaphilosophy

Books reviewed in this article:
Nicholas Rescher, Philosophical Standardism
Nicholas Rescher, The Strife of Systems
Nicholas Rescher, A System of Pragmatic Idealism. Vol. III, Metaphysical Inquiries