Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prediction during statistical learning, and implications for the implicit/explicit divide

Accounts of statistical learning, both implicit and explicit, often invoke predictive processes as central to learning, yet practically all experiments employ non-predictive measures during training. We argue that the common theoretical assumption of anticipation and prediction needs clearer, more direct evidence for it during learning. We offer a novel experimental context to explore prediction, and report results from a simple sequential learning task designed to promote predictive behaviors in participants as they responded to a short sequence of simple stimulus events. Predictive tendencies in participants were measured using their computer mouse, the trajectories of which served as a means of tapping into predictive behavior while participants were exposed to very short and simple sequences of events. A total of 143 participants were randomly assigned to stimulus sequences along a continuum of regularity. Analysis of computer-mouse trajectories revealed that (a) participants almost always anticipate events in some manner, (b) participants exhibit two stable patterns of behavior, either reacting to vs. predicting future events, (c) the extent to which participants predict relates to performance on a recall test, and (d) explicit reports of perceiving patterns in the brief sequence correlates with extent of prediction. We end with a discussion of implicit and explicit statistical learning and of the role prediction may play in both kinds of learning.     

Self-efficacy and social support as predictors of smoking after a quit attempt

Abstract

The current study examined self-efficacy and social support as predictors of maintenance after an attempt to stop smoking. As in previous studies, self-efficacy at the end of treatment was a significant predictor of reported smoking during the follow-up period. At 3 months after treatment the prediction from self-efficacy was weaker than a prediction from the level of post-treatment smoking. However at 10 months self-efficacy was the strongest predictive variable assessed in the study. In contrast, social support for the quit attempt was not a significant predictor of maintenance at any stage. The results provided qualified support for the contention that self-efficacy can often be a more powerful predictor than previous performance attainments, especially under conditions of greater situational change.     

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

When deciding for whom to vote, voters should select the candidate they expect to best handle issues, all other things equal. A simple heuristic predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues would win the popular vote. This was correct for nine out of ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent's relative issue ratings to the actual two‐party popular vote shares. The resulting model yielded out‐of‐sample forecasts that were competitive with those from the Iowa Electronic Markets and established quantitative models. The issue‐index model has implications for political decision makers, as it can help to track campaigns and to decide which issues to focus on. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finger gnosia: a predictor of numerical abilities in children?

This paper aimed to test the specificity of predicting power of finger gnosia on later numerical abilities in school-age children and to contribute to the understanding of this effect. Forty-one children were tested in the beginning of Grade 1 on finger gnosia, left–right orientation (another sign of the Gerstmann “syndrome”), and global development. Fifteen months later, numerical and reading abilities were assessed. Analyses of the results indicated that, contrary to the general measures of cognitive development, performance in the finger gnosia test was a good predictor of numerical skills 1 year later but not of reading skills, which proves the specificity of that predictor. The same conclusion was also true for the left–right orientation. However, finger gnosia could equally predict performance in numerical tasks that do or do not rely heavily on finger representation or on magnitude representation. Results are discussed in terms of the localizationist and the functional hypotheses.     

Expectancy bias mediates the link between social anxiety and memory bias for social evaluation

Social anxiety (SA) involves a multitude of cognitive symptoms related to fear of evaluation, including expectancy and memory biases. We examined whether memory biases are influenced by expectancy biases for social feedback in SA. We hypothesised that, faced with a socially evaluative event, people with higher SA would show a negative expectancy bias for future feedback. Furthermore, we predicted that memory bias for feedback in SA would be mediated by expectancy bias. Ninety-four undergraduate students (55 women, mean age = 19.76 years) underwent a two-visit task that measured expectations about (Visit 1) and memory of (Visit 2) feedback from unknown peers. Results showed that higher levels of SA were associated with negative expectancy bias. An indirect relationship was found between SA and memory bias that was mediated by expectancy bias. The results suggest that expectancy biases are in the causal path from SA to negative memory biases for social evaluation.     

Home-School Communication in the Treatment of Childhood Behavior Problems

There is a shortage of intervention strategies for children with behavior disorders which incorporate both home and school influences. To address this need, a service delivery model was evaluated for public school children (Pre-K through G2) who were at risk for educational failure on account of behavior problems, family dysfunction, and poverty and social disadvantage. Interventions based on eco-behavioral principles were delivered by home-visitors in consultation with clinical child psychologists. A primary goal of all treatment plans was to enhance parent-teacher communication. Children in the experimental group (N = 34) showed overall improvement (as judged by parents) and decreases in targeted problems (as reported by teachers and parents), relative to control students (N = 15). The program decreased the number of children placed in special education. There was indication that better communication between home and school related to academic improvement. The protocol provides a possible behavioral consultation model of early intervention for behavior disorders and demonstrates how clinical services can be integrated with systems-wide dropout prevention efforts.     

New insights on eye blindness and hand sight: Temporal constraints of visuo-motor networks

Pioneer experiments on saccadic suppression have shown that this effect is not followed by motor disorientation: Conscious perception of a target displacement can be dissociated from correct manual target reaching. It has subsequently been demonstrated that movement corrections with the same latency and spatial characteristics can be produced in conditions allowing perceptual awareness of perturbation of a target as in condition inducing saccadic suppression. In addition to the qualitative dissociation between motor performance and conscious awareness, quantitative temporal dissociations in action can be observed by manipulating different features of the visual target. When the target of an ongoing simple action is perturbed, a temporal advantage is found for responses to perturbations of location relative to colour and shape. Furthermore, there seems to be a temporal advantage for automatic motor corrections made in response to a target displacement as compared to other responses (other ongoing movement adjustments, movement interruption, conditional motor response such as pressing a key, verbal response, delayed matching-to-sample tasks). Thus, this paper reviews evidence for the fact that the temporal characteristics of any given response to a stimulus are dependent both on the sensory processes and on the type of response generated. Accordingly, identification responses (such as verbal report) to a visual stimulus are much slower than motor corrections of an ongoing movement in response to a target location change because of different processing times of the stimulus features (“What” compared to “Where”) and of the response itself (“What” compared to “How”). The existence of two continua (What/Where and What/How) is proposed between these two extreme stimulus- response combinations. This model may be a useful framework to better understand visuo-motor transformations and the network of connections between visual and motor areas.     

Predictive Pointing Movements and Saccades Toward a Moving Target

The authors investigated whether and, if so, how velocity information is used to control predictive manual pointing movements and saccades. Participants (N = 6) intercepted an occluded moving target as if it were still visible. They kept their eyes fixated while the target moved. The target traveled over a fixed distance and changed its velocity on the way. The presentation time of the final velocity was varied. Both the eye and the hand overshot the slow target and undershot the fast target, particularly when the duration of the final velocity was short. Thus, responses were biased in the direction of the target's initial velocity. The error seemed to arise because participants did not take their latency into account when aiming at the target. Instead, they strategically aimed farther ahead when the target was fast. Amplitude was also more related to the position of velocity change than to final velocity duration. Both findings suggest that target velocity is not extrapolated but that individuals add an increment to the position of velocity change.     

Attending to what matters: Flexibility in adults’ and infants’ action perception

Action perception is selective in that observers attend to and encode certain dimensions of action over others. But how flexible is action perception in its selection of perceptual information? One possibility is that observers consistently attend to particular dimensions of action over others across different contexts. Another possibility, tested here, is that observers flexibly vary their attention to different dimensions of action based on the context in which action occurs. We investigated 9.5-month-old infants’ and adults’ ability to attend to drop height under varying contexts—aiming to drop an object into a narrow container versus a wide container. We predicted differential attention to increases in aiming height for the narrow container versus the wide container because an increase in aiming height has a differential effect on success (i.e., getting the object into the container) depending on the width of the container. Both adults and infants showed an asymmetry in their attention to aiming height as a function of context; in the wide container condition increases and decreases in aiming height were equally detectable, whereas in the narrow container condition observers more readily discriminated increases over decreases in aiming height. These results indicate that action perception is both selective and flexible according to context, aiding in action prediction and infants’ social–cognitive development more broadly.