The ethics of earthquake prediction

Scientists’ responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.     

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome: autobiographical memory predicts the course of depressive affect after nCPAP therapy

Although nCPAP therapy has proven to be efficient at removing symptoms of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), recovery from depression frequently remains unsatisfactory. Other studies have shown that recall of autobiographical memories (AM) is a psychological vulnerability marker for depression, and also have shown its predictive power for the course of depression. It is therefore hypothesized that AM also predict the course of depressive affect in OSAS patients. Fifty-four consecutively admitted OSAS patients received standard nCPAP therapy. Specificity of AM assessed at the beginning of treatment was used as a predictor in a regression analysis, and the extent of recovery from depression over a follow-up period of between six to nine weeks served as the criterion variable. The results supported the hypothesis that patients who were able to recall more specific AM in response to positively valenced cue words showed a more substantial recovery from depression. This has important treatment implications.     

A Different Look at Assessment Centers: Views of Assessment Center Users

This study aims to shed light on possible problems of assessment center users and designers when developing and implementing assessment centers. Semi-structured interviews with a representative sample of assessment center users in Flanders revealed that, besides a large variability in assessment center practice, practitioners experience problems with dimension selection and definition, exercise design, line/staff managers as assessors, distinguishing between observation and evaluation, and with the content of assessor training programs. Solutions for these problems are suggested.     

Extending the temporal range of psychometric prediction by optimal linear filtering of mental test scores

Incorporating temporal decline in predictive validity into mental testing theory is outlined. Starting from multivariate regression of criterion on repeated measurements, an analytic extension results in a weighting function for repeated measurements, replacing the beta weights. Besides optimizing, the procedure permits an evaluation of any particular prognosis setting: In cases of exponentially declining predictive validity, prognostic range can be extended if concurrent validity is nonperfect by optimal weighting (predictive filtering) of repeated measurements. Considerable gain in prognostic range over the traditional approach can be achieved if predictive validity declines concavely downwards.This work was supported by grant Dr 58/3 from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.     

One-year prediction of cognitive decline following cognitive-stimulation from real-world data

Clinical evidence based on real-world data (RWD) is accumulating exponentially providing larger sample sizes available, which demand novel methods to deal with the enhanced heterogeneity of the data. Here, we used RWD to assess the prediction of cognitive decline in a large heterogeneous sample of participants being enrolled with cognitive stimulation, a phenomenon that is of great interest to clinicians but that is riddled with difficulties and limitations. More precisely, from a multitude of neuropsychological Training Materials (TMs), we asked whether was possible to accurately predict an individual's cognitive decline one year after being tested. In particular, we performed longitudinal modelling of the scores obtained from 215 different tests, grouped into 29 cognitive domains, a total of 124,610 instances from 7902 participants (40% male, 46% female, 14% not indicated), each performing an average of 16 tests. Employing a machine learning approach based on ROC analysis and cross-validation techniques to overcome overfitting, we show that different TMs belonging to several cognitive domains can accurately predict cognitive decline, while other domains perform poorly, suggesting that the ability to predict decline one year later is not specific to any particular domain, but is rather widely distributed across domains. Moreover, when addressing the same problem between individuals with a common diagnosed label, we found that some domains had more accurate classification for conditions such as Parkinson's disease and Down syndrome, whereas they are less accurate for Alzheimer's disease or multiple sclerosis. Future research should combine similar approaches to ours with standard neuropsychological measurements to enhance interpretability and the possibility of generalizing across different cohorts.     

Subtask analysis of process data through a predictive model

Response process data collected from human–computer interactive items contain detailed information about respondents' behavioural patterns and cognitive processes. Such data are valuable sources for analysing respondents' problem-solving strategies. However, the irregular data format and the complex structure make standard statistical tools difficult to apply. This article develops a computationally efficient method for exploratory analysis of such process data. The new approach segments a lengthy individual process into a sequence of short subprocesses to achieve complexity reduction, easy clustering and meaningful interpretation. Each subprocess is considered a subtask. The segmentation is based on sequential action predictability using a parsimonious predictive model combined with the Shannon entropy. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the new method. We use a case study of PIAAC 2012 to demonstrate how exploratory analysis for process data can be carried out with the new approach.     

Preparing children to cope with earthquakes: Building emotional competence

Natural disasters, including earthquakes, can have a traumatic impact on children's psychological wellbeing and development. The efficacy of interventions aimed at enhancing children's socio-emotional learning has been documented in the literature. At the same time, these techniques are the key for training children for possible future disasters by enhancing their knowledge about behavioural preparedness and emotional competence. However, research on evidence-based training programs on earthquakes combining digital and traditional activities is scarce. We tested the efficacy of a 10-unit training program for primary school children, developed within the Emotional Prevention and Earthquakes in Primary School (PrEmT) project. The program aimed at increasing knowledge of and metacognition about earthquakes, safety behaviours, emotions, and coping strategies, through digital (using the web-application HEMOT^®, Helmet for EMOTions, developed ad-hoc) and traditional activities (completing paper-and-pencil tasks). The participants were 548 second and fourth-graders from Italian schools. They were divided into an experimental group (participating in the training program) and a control group. Both groups participated in pretests and posttests to evaluate changes in their knowledge of training-related contents. For ethical reasons, we also measured children's wellbeing. Generalized linear mixed models indicated an improvement in the experimental group's knowledge and metacognition about earthquakes, safety behaviours, emotions, and coping strategies after the training program, compared to the control group. Children's general wellbeing did not deteriorate during participation in the project. The results documented the efficacy of the evidence-based training program developed within the PrEmT project. The program provides a preventive method for enhancing earthquake-related resilience that could be generalized to other kinds of disasters.     

The desirability of beliefs: preschoolers' appreciation of fact beliefs and subsequent emotions

In this study, we investigated the extent to which preschool children's own knowledge about reality biases their understanding that others' beliefs about reality govern others' emotions and not reality itself. Therefore, an increasing tension was created between the beliefs of the protagonist and the participant, by providing varying degrees of evidence about the validity of the protagonist's belief. Children of between 4 and 5 years of age were asked to predict the protagonist's emotion, given the protagonist's desire and the protagonist's belief. The results show that, to a certain extent, preschool children take others' beliefs into account when predicting others' emotions. When the outcome is clear, children probably feel tied to reality, and in the case of false beliefs, their knowledge about reality biases their emotion predictions, as was also evident in ‘false belief’ research (Wimmer H, Perner I. 1983. Beliefs about beliefs: representation and constraining function of wrong beliefs in young children's understanding of deception. Cognition 13: 103–128). However, when it is uncertain what the actual outcome will be, then it is not the likelihood of others' beliefs but the desirability of the outcome that biases children's predictions of others' emotions. In other words, when the actual outcome is yet unclear, 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds show a tendency for wishful thinking in their predictions of others' emotions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Early cognitive development and parental education

Relations between cognitive development in infancy and early childhood, and parental education were examined. Previous research has found little association between measures of the parenting environment, including parental education and socio‐economic status (SES), and cognitive development in infants and children under 2 years of age. However, the earlier studies may not have reliably measured individual differences in cognitive abilities, thus, there is uncertainty as to what age elements in the parental environment affect cognitive development. Seventy‐six infants were tested on a range of cognitive tasks at 3‐month intervals between the ages of 9 and 18 months. Information on parental education (a component of SES) was collected. Seventy‐one of the children returned at 27 months and completed the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Mental Scale, which was used as an outcome measure for the earlier tasks. The findings present a clear indication that cognitive development in early childhood is affected by the parenting environment, at least from as early as 12 months. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Desirability bias among professional investment managers: some evidence from experts

Desirability bias is the tendency to overpredict desirable outcomes and underpredict unwanted outcomes. Previous research suggests that this bias is quite pervasive among non-experts but there is very scant evidence of its intensity among experts. For at least twenty years, financial academics and, to a lesser extent, practicing investment managers have claimed that the financial markets are among the most efficient and bias free in existence. Therefore, this paper examines the degree of desirability bias among expert and practicing US and Taiwanese investment managers. The empirical results suggest that desirability bias does appear to be a characteristic of these experts. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.