Social influence on predictions of simulated stock prices

Herding in financial markets refers to that investors are influenced by others. This study addresses the importance of consistency for herding. It is suggested that, in financial markets perceptions of consistency are based on repeated observations over time. Consistency may then be perceived as the agreement across time between investors' predictions. In addition, consistency may be related to variance over time in each investor's predictions. In an experiment using a Multiple Cue Probability Learning paradigm, 96 undergraduates made multi‐trial predictions of future stock prices given information about the current price and the predictions made by five fictitious others. Consistency was varied between the others' predictions (correlation) and within the others' predictions (variance). The results showed that the predictions were significantly influenced by the others' predictions when these were correlated. No effect of variance was observed. Hence, participants were influenced by the others when they were in agreement, regardless of whether they varied their predictions over trials or not. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Distance from Psychological Research to Real Life

Considering our experiences in everyday life, the result of research based on sample assumed to be derived from a “population” cannot afford individual predictions. That is because the variabilities within individuals which play an important role in actual psychological processes are erased from the data in samples-based studies. In this article, we begin the discussion with how the intra-individual variance contributes to individual prediction. As case study works on the basis of variability within each individual, it explores the intrinsic mechanism of development and emphasize the connection between person and environment. The question of how to generalize from case studies requires that the researcher to selectively consider some of the variance and construction of a hypothetical model that shows how different features of oppositions (Yin and Yang) are integrated into an abstract whole that is applicable to all individual cases.

Syntactic prediction during self-paced reading is age invariant

Controversy exists as to whether, compared to young adults, older adults are more, equally or less likely to make linguistic predictions while reading. While previous studies have examined age effects on the prediction of upcoming words, the prediction of upcoming syntactic structures has been largely unexplored. We compared the benefit that young and older readers gain when the syntactic structure is made predictable, as well as potential age differences in the costs involved in making predictions. In a self-paced reading study, 60 young and 60 older adults read sentences in which noun-phrase coordination (e.g. large pizza or tasty calzone) is made predictable through the inclusion of the word either earlier in the sentence. Results showed a benefit of the presence of either in the second half of the coordination phrase, and a cost of the presence of either in the first half. We observed no age differences in the benefit or costs of making these predictions; Bayes factor analyses offered strong evidence that these effects are age invariant. Together, these findings suggest that both older and younger adults make similar strength syntactic predictions with a similar level of difficulty. We relate this age invariance in syntactic prediction to specific aspects of the ageing process.     

Predicting interpersonal competence in young adulthood: The roles of family,self, and peer systems during adolescence

The present investigation examines the impact of family, self, and peer systems, evaluated during early adolescence, on the development of interpersonal competence in young adulthood. The participants were 110 Caucasian individuals, their mothers, and one of their teachers. At the first assessment, the participants ranged in age from 11.5 to 15.1 years old. Approximately six years later, the participants completed a second evaluation involving assessment of interpersonal competence. Increased interparental conflict and parental divorce predicted decreased self-esteem. Decreased self-esteem predicted poorer peer-adolescent relationships, which, in turn, forecasted poorer adult interpersonal competence. The results suggest that living in a distressed family leads to diminished self-esteem which can influence the quality of peer relationships and place an adolescent on a trejectory toward difficulties in interpersonal competence during adulthood.     

EFFECTS OF SIGNALING INVASIVE PROCEDURES ON A HOSPITALIZED INFANT'S AFFECTIVE BEHAVIORS

We report the effects of using a visual and auditory stimulus signaling impending painful medical procedures versus “safe” periods on the affective behavior of a hospitalized infant. The results of a reversal design suggested that the signaling procedures increased positive behaviors and decreased negative behaviors during both noninvasive and invasive caregiver events.     

On the relationship between Fortier's simultaneous linear prediction and van den Wollenberg's redundancy analysis

The purpose of this note is to show that Van den Wollenberg's method of redundancy analysis is a special case of a simultaneous linear prediction method offered by Fortier.     

The effects of labelling,expert testimony,and information processing mode on juror decisions in SVP civil commitment trials

Expert witnesses offering testimony in sexually violent predator civil commitment trials may use diagnostic labels that are either familiar (e.g. ‘psychopath’) or unfamiliar (e.g. ‘paraphilia’) to jurors. Using predictions based on cognitive experiential self-theory, we explored the influence of testimony type (clinical versus actuarial) and diagnostic label (psychopath versus paraphilia) on jurors motivated to adopt either an experiential processing mode (PM; in which heuristic cues may be strongly relied upon) or an analytic rational PM. Consistent with previous research, our results indicated that when given a psychopathic diagnostic label, mock jurors motivated to process information experientially were more influenced by clinical testimony, whereas mock jurors induced into a rational mode were more influenced by actuarial testimony. However, experientially oriented jurors given a paraphilia diagnostic label did not show the expected influence of clinical expert testimony, and instead were more persuaded by actuarial testimony. These findings are discussed from a judgement and heuristics cues framework. The implications of several procedural suggestions are examined. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中文故事阅读中预期与前后向推理的关系

通过3项实验,考察了中文故事阅读中前后向推理的差异及其与预期的关系。采用3×2独立设计,以反应时为指标,以较长的语篇为实验材料,分别利用核证法与命名法进行了实验一和二。实验三在实验二的基础上,用2×2独立设计,并根据实验目的修改了实验材料。实验一的结果显示,前向推理和后向推理差异显著;实验二的结果则是前向推理和后向推理无显著差异,而且预期的3个水平在前后向推理上均无显著差异;实验三的结果表明,在预期与前后向推理间距离近和预期句详述的情况下,预期与前后向推理产生了交互作用     

Predicting sports performance from well-being: A mapping of professional athletes’, amateur athletes’ and non-athletes’ positions

IntroductionPrediction of performance and well-being are two essential keys in sports performance.ObjectiveThe study aimed to map different positions regarding the way in which individuals integrated mentally five elements of eudaimonic well-being (relatedness, autonomy, competence, mental vitality and physical vitality) for predicting the degree of performance at the beginning of a match.MethodTwenty-four non-athletes, 44 amateur athletes and 26 professional athletes indicated their prediction of performance in 32 scenarios constructed from the combination of these elements of well-being. Cluster analysis, ANOVAs, and chi-square test have been done.ResultsTwo positions on prediction of performance were found. The first cluster was called “Sometimes Performance Prediction” and the second cluster was named “Seldom Performance Prediction”. The five elements had a positive effect on the prediction of performance. The composition of both clusters was linked to the level of involvement in sport.ConclusionOffering athletes a “well-being environment” may lead to predict the sports performance.     

The temporal dynamics of the perceptual consequences of action-effect prediction

An essential aspect of voluntary action control is the ability to predict the perceptual effects of our actions. Although the influence of action-effect prediction on humans’ behavior and perception is unequivocal, it remains unclear when action-effect prediction is generated by the brain. The present study investigates the dynamics of action effect anticipation by tracing the time course of its perceptual consequences. Participants completed an acquisition phase during which specific actions (left and right key-presses) were associated with specific visual effects (upward and downward dots motion). In the test phase they performed a 2 AFC identification task in which they were required to indicate whether the dots moved upward or downward. To isolate any effects of action-effect prediction on perception, participants were presented with congruent and incongruent dot motion in which the association participants learned in the previous acquisition phase was respected and violated, respectively. Crucially, to assess the temporal dynamics of action prediction, congruent and incongruent stimuli were presented at different intervals before or after action execution. We observed higher sensitivity (d′) to motion discrimination in congruent vs. incongruent trials only when stimuli were presented from about 220 ms before the action to 280 ms after the action. The temporal dynamics of our effect suggest that action-effect prediction modulates perception at later stages of motor preparation.