Expectation confirmation: An examination of three competing models

We discuss three theoretical models from met expectations research in the fields of organizational behavior and consumer psychology. Based on the fundamental arguments in the models, we term these models: disconfirmation, ideal point, and experiences only. We present three-dimensional graphical and analytical representations of the models, with satisfaction being a function of expectations and experiences. We tested the models in the context of a new information system implementation in an organization, with expectations, experiences, and system satisfaction measured for both ease of use and usefulness, the focal constructs of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). We found that an experiences only model in which expectations had no measurable effect best explained the data for ease of use. The results for usefulness indicated a modified version of the experiences only model in which the positive effect of experiences becomes slightly stronger—i.e., more positive—as expectations increase.     

Modeling and prediction of driver preparations for making a right turn based on vehicle velocity and traffic conditions while approaching an intersection

This paper focuses on modeling and predicting the influence of a vehicle’s velocity and the relative position between a driver’s vehicle and a vehicle to the front or rear on the onset of driver preparations for making a right turn at an intersection. Repeated experiments were carried out on a public road to measure driver preparations, including releasing the accelerator pedal, moving the right foot to cover the brake pedal, and activating the turn signal, as well as to record vehicle velocity and the relative distances to the leading and following vehicles. Structural equation modeling was applied to estimate these relationships quantitatively. Two separate latent variables accounting for the interaction between the driver’s vehicle and leading or following vehicles, and the onset point where driving behavior changes from straight mode to preparation mode before a right turn, were introduced in the specification of the structural equation model. The model estimates and testing indicate that the proposed structural equation model represents well the relationship hypothesized by observational analysis: that the vehicle velocity and the traffic conditions surrounding the driver’s vehicle strongly influence the driver’s deceleration and more weakly influenced turn signal activation. The proposed structural equation model contributes to the prediction of the onset locations of covering the brake pedal and activating the turn signal based on the vehicle velocity and the relative distances to the front and rear vehicles when the accelerator pedal is released. The prediction accuracy is high compared with predictions in which the vehicle velocity and the headway or rear distances are not taken into account or predictions using a single regression model with one independent variable, namely driving speed. Finally, a possible new addition to in-vehicle navigation systems that detects unusual driver behavior by predicting the driver’s preparatory maneuvers is discussed.     

Autonomous construction of ecologically and socially relevant semantics

This article presents a synthetic modeling approach to the problem of grounded construction of concepts. In many computational models of grounded language acquisition and evolution, meanings are created in the process of discrimination between a chosen object and other objects present on the scene of communication. We argue that categories constructed for the purpose of identification rather than discrimination are more suitable for the detached language use (talking about things not present here and now). We describe a semantics based on so-called identification criteria constructed by extracting cross-situational similarities among instances of a category, and present several computational models. In the model of individual category construction, the instances are grouped to categories by common motor programs (affordances), while in the model of social learning, focused on the influence of naming on category formation, entities are considered members of the same category, if they are labeled with the same word by an external teacher. By these two mechanisms, the learner can construct interactionally grounded representation of objects, properties, relations, changes, complex situations and events. We also report and analyze simulation results of an experiment focused on the dynamics of meanings in iterated intergenerational transmission.     

Human and machine perception of biological motion

More than 30 years ago, Johansson was the first to show that humans are capable of recovering information about the identity and activity of animate creatures rapidly and reliably from very sparse visual inputs – the phenomenon of biological motion. He filmed human actors in a dark setting with just a few strategic points on the body marked by lights – so-called moving light displays (MLDs). Subjects viewing the MLDs reported a vivid impression of moving human forms, and were even able to tell the activity in which the perceived humans were engaged. Subsequently, the phenomenon has been widely studied and many attempts have been made to model and to understand it. Typical questions that arise are: How precisely is the sparse low-level information integrated over space and time to produce the global percept, and how important is world knowledge (e.g., about animal form, locomotion, gravity, etc.)? In an attempt to answer such questions, we have implemented a machine-perception model of biological motion. If the computational model can replicate human data then it might offer clues as to how humans achieve the task. In particular, if it can do so with no or minimal world knowledge then this knowledge cannot be essential to the perception of biological motion. To provide human data for training and against which to assess the model, an extensive psychophysical experiment was undertaken in which 93 subjects were shown 12 categories of MLDs (e.g., normal, walking backwards, inverted, random dots, etc.) and were asked to indicate the presence or absence of natural human motion. Machine perception models were then trained on normal sequences as positive data and random sequences as negative data. Two models were used: a k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) classifier as an exemplar of ‘lazy’ learning and a back-propagation neural network as an exemplar of ‘eager’ learning. We find that the k-NN classifier is better able to model the human data but it still fails to represent aspects of knowledge about body shape (especially how relative joint positions change under rotation) that appear to be important to human judgements.     

Modeling the Developmental Patterning of Finiteness Marking in English, Dutch, German, and Spanish Using MOSAIC

In this study, we apply MOSAIC (model of syntax acquisition in children) to the simulation of the developmental patterning of children's optional infinitive (OI) errors in 4 languages: English, Dutch, German, and Spanish. MOSAIC, which has already simulated this phenomenon in Dutch and English, now implements a learning mechanism that better reflects the theoretical assumptions underlying it, as well as a chunking mechanism that results in frequent phrases being treated as 1 unit. Using 1, identical model that learns from child-directed speech, we obtain a close quantitative fit to the data from all 4 languages despite there being considerable cross-linguistic and developmental variation in the OI phenomenon. MOSAIC successfully simulates the difference between Spanish (a pro-drop language in which OI errors are virtually absent) and obligatory subject languages that do display the OI phenomenon. It also highlights differences in the OI phenomenon across German and Dutch, 2 closely related languages whose grammar is virtually identical with respect to the relation between finiteness and verb placement. Taken together, these results suggest that (a) cross-linguistic differences in the rates at which children produce OIs are graded, quantitative differences that closely reflect the statistical properties of the input they are exposed to and (b) theories of syntax acquisition need to consider more closely the role of input characteristics as determinants of quantitative differences in the cross-linguistic patterning of phenomena in language acquisition.     

“Primary Relations” In a New Foundational Axiomatic Framework

The new system of axioms we propose is based on the foundational theory of De Giorgi et al. Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, Preprints di Matematica 26: 1 (1996) slightly modified. In that paper (which is dedicated to a new axiomatic framework for mathematics, informatics and logic) the authors use two kinds of primitive notions: relations and qualities. Since their system is based on the distribution paradigm, they start from distinction. We propose to shift the perspective and to start from unity and then from within unity to pass to distinction; to this end we apply ideas of Lesniewski, Nijhoff International Philosophy Series 44 (1992). We introduce only one kind of entity as a primitive notion, namely relations, and treat qualities as articulations of relations. The new concept of “primary relation” permits the introduction of a dynamic, non-standard form of identity, which we hope will find application in various fields where self-referential structures are required.     

Comparing self-esteem and perceived control as predictors of first-year college students’ academic achievement

Due to its widespread popularity, self-esteem is continually being promoted to students despite limited empirical support for its effectiveness in improving their academic achievement. As a result, constructs that are potentially more salient to academic performance, such as perceived control, have gone relatively unnoticed. Although past research has examined the link between students’ academic achievement and either their self-esteem or perceived control, few studies have compared both constructs simultaneously to elucidate which one is more important to academic success. This longitudinal study directly contrasted the effects of self-esteem and perceived control on the academic performance of 802 first-year college students. After accounting for incoming ability (high school grades), age, and gender, a structural equation model showed perceived control positively predicted students’ GPA. In contrast, the predictive effect of self-esteem on GPA was non-existent. Findings indicate that compared to self-esteem, perceived control is a more powerful predictor of first-year college students’ GPA. Implications for utilizing educational interventions to boost perceived control among college students are discussed.     

Distortion of probability and outcome information in risky decisions

Substantial evidence indicates that information is distorted during decision making, but very few studies have assessed the distortion of probability and outcome information in risky decisions. In two studies involving six binary decisions (e.g., banning blood donations from people who have visited England, because of “mad cow disease”), student and nonstudent participants distorted their evaluations of probability and outcome information in the direction of their preferred decision alternative and used these biased evaluations to update their preferences. Participants also evaluated the utilities of possible outcomes more positively when the outcomes could follow only from the preferred alternative and more negatively when they could follow only from the competing alternative. Such circular reasoning is antithetical to the normative consequentialist principles underlying decision analysis. Presenting numerical information as precise values or as ranges of values did not significantly affect information distortion, apparently because the manipulation did not affect perceived ambiguity as intended.     

老年人记忆补偿的长期稳定性和变异性：来自维多利亚纵向研究的证据

两种记忆状况组来自于参与加拿大维多利亚纵向研究(VLS)的老年人原样本。一种是未受损伤的控制组(NIC), 另一种是轻度记忆损伤组(MMD)。在基线水平和纵向水平上(即5次追踪或12年)比较了他们在日常生活中对记忆补偿技术的使用。我们使用多水平模型(以年龄和教育水平为协变量)来检验基线水平的差异和长期的变化模式。基线的结果表明MMD组被试报告了近期在日常生活中使用记忆补偿策略方面有更大的增长。纵向的结果表明记忆补偿的使用在12年中具有明显的稳定性, 但是与努力相关的补偿机制存在显著组间差异。教育水平这一协变量(可认为是潜在的认知储备指标)和三种记忆补偿策略随时间的不同变化相关。