Rewording the Rules on Disjunctive Probability

Logic is a central and highly useful part of philosophy. Its value is particularly evident when it comes to keeping our thinking about disjunctive probabilities clear. Because of the two meanings of “or” (“just one of these statements is true,” “at least one of these statements is true”), logic can show how the likelihood of a disjunction being true can be determined quite easily. To gauge the chance that one of two or more exclusive alternatives is true, one need only sum up their respective likelihoods. And to know the chance that at least one of two or more compatible alternatives is true, one simply has to figure the chance that it is false that all of them are false!     

A REVIEW OF COCAINE ABUSE: BEHAVIOR,PHARMACOLOGY, AND CLINICAL APPLICATIONS,EDITED BY S. T. HIGGINS AND J. L. KATZ

This book comprises 17 chapters that deal with a variety of topics related to cocaine and its abuse. Several of the chapters are excellent, and the book in its totality contains a wealth of information. These are major strengths. On the down side, some important topics are ignored, the relevance of several chapters to cocaine abuse is not apparent, and the various chapters are not well integrated. We recommend Cocaine Abuse as a reference volume for scientists with specific training in the areas that it covers. But we do not recommend it for cover‐to‐cover reading as an overview of cocaine abuse.     

Modulation of Taste Aversions by a Pentobarbital Drug State: An Assessment of Its Transfer Properties

In a drug-discrimination procedure using conditioned taste aversions, a pentobarbital injection signaled a taste–toxin pairing while the vehicle injection signaled the same taste in the absence of the toxin. In transfer tests, drug states transferred control over consumption to other targets. If the training target was a fluid (saccharin), then transfer occurred to other fluids (both novel and familiar) but not to solid food. If the training target was food, then some transfer occurred to novel targets (both fluids and solid food) but not to familiar targets. Control rats revealed that the differential consumption seen during acquisition and during transfer tests was not due to the summation of two simple associations (i.e., drug–toxin and flavor–toxin) but rather reflected conditional control over consumption by the drug state.     

Clients in Treatment for Alcohol Problems: Treatment Experiencesand Outcomes

This report presents an analysis of National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study data describing the characteristics and treatment experiences of clients entering treatment for alcohol problems. Three client groups were contrasted—those entering treatment for alcohol only, for alcohol plus other drugs, or for other drugs only. Clients using alcohol only were more often white, male, and currently employed. Alcohol only clients were treated predominantly in outpatient settings. Alcohol only clients were frequently referred to treatment by the criminal justice system, and less often self-referred. In all 3 study groups, employment, general health, and mental health outcomes were improved following treatment. Illicit drug use increased marginally for the alcohol only group following treatment. No significant posttreatment reductions in reports of total abstinencefrom alcohol were found for any of the groups. Findings are discussed as they relate to research, treatment practice, and policyareas.     

Treatment Populations,Services, and Outcomes for Cocaine and Crack-Cocaine Dependence

This paper analyzes demographic and other pretreatment characteristics, measures of treatment services received, and treatment outcomes of participantsin the National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study (NTIES), a large-scale longitudinal study of substance abuse treatment (D. R. Gerstein et al., 1997; R. A. Johnson & D. R. Gerstein, 2000). The focus here is those treated primarily for cocaine powder or crack-cocaine dependence, compared with those in treatment for other substances, particularly heroin. Crack-dependent users tend to be female and black, older than primary marijuana or alcohol users but younger than those in treatment for heroin. Primary cocaine powder or crack users are likely to have entered treatment under pressure from the criminal justice system. After treatment there are substantial reductions in use of cocaine powder and crack, especially among participants with fewer prior treatment episodes and lower pretreatment intensity of use. Longer duration and intensity of treatment result in greater reductions in cocaine and crack use.     

Assessing risky public investments with MUSTARD

This paper presents a practical implementation of multicriteria methodologies based on the UTA model by Jacquet‐Lagrèze and Siskos and Quasi‐UTA model by Beuthe and Scannella, which are specified with a non‐linear, but piecewise linear, additive utility function. In contrast with the general UTA model, the Quasi‐UTA specification structures the partial utilities as recursive exponential functions of only one curvature parameter. This allows for a reduction of the quantity of information necessary to build the utility function. The software MUSTARD implements different variants of these models. Firstly, it offers the basic deterministic UTA model of disaggregation, but also its first programmed stochastic version. In both cases, the software proceeds stepwise and interactively helping the decision maker to formulate the problem and state preferences between projects; in the stochastic case, the decision maker is even helped to build the criteria distributions. The Quasi‐UTA specification can be introduced in this disaggregation model. Secondly, the software offers an aggregation model whereby the Quasi‐UTA partial utility functions are built separately through specific questioning processes. The questions relating to deterministic criteria are of the ‘direct rating type’, while those of the stochastic criteria are either of the ‘variable probability’ or the ‘variable outcome’ type. The criteria weights can be assessed by the ‘swing weight’ method or by a UTA‐II side‐program. As an example as well as a test of the Quasi‐UTA aggregation approach, the paper presents its application to a real problem of selecting road investment projects in Belgium. Several experts and civil servants were interviewed, and their individual utility functions derived. The projects are ranked according to their rate of return, which is computed on the basis of the projects certain equivalent money value. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analog scale,magnitude estimation,and person trade‐off as measures of health utility: biases and their correction

Subjects judged the disutility of health conditions (e.g. blindness) using one of them (e.g. blindness+deafness) as a standard, using three elicitation methods: analog scale (AS, how bad is blindness compared to blindness+deafness?); magnitude estimation (ME, blindness+deafness is how many times as bad as blindness?); and person trade‐off (PTO, how many people cured of blindness is as good as 10 people cured of blindness+deafness?). ME disutilities of the less bad condition were smallest, and AS was highest. Interleaving PTO with ME made PTO more like ME. AS disutilities were inconsistent with direct judgments of differences between pairs of conditions. ME and PTO judgments were internally inconsistent: e.g. the disutility of one‐eye‐blindness relative to blindness+deafness was larger than predicted from comparison of each to blindness. Consistency training reduced inconsistency, increased agreement between AS and PTO, and transferred from one method to the other. The results support the use of consistency checks in utility elicitation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decomposition,Interdependence and Precision in Multiattribute Utility Measurements

Traditionally, parameters of multiattribute utility models, representing a decision maker's preference judgements, are treated deterministically. This may be unrealistic, because assessment of such parameters is potentially fraught with imprecisions and errors. We thus treat such parameters as stochastic and investigate how their associated imprecision/errors are propagated in an additive multiattribute utility function in terms of the aggregate variance. Both a no information and a rank order case regarding the attribute weights are considered, assuming a uniform distribution over the feasible region of attribute weights constrained by the respective information assumption. In general, as the number of attributes increases, the variance of the aggregate utility in both cases decreases and approaches the same limit, which depends only on the variances as well as the correlations among the single-attribute utilities. However, the marginal change in aggregate utility variance decreases rather rapidly and hence decomposition as a variance reduction mechanism is generally useful but becomes relatively ineffective if the number of attributes exceed about 10. Moreover, it was found that utilities which are positively correlated increase the aggregate utility variance, hence every effort should be made to avoid positive correlations between the single-attribute utilities. We also provide guidelines for determining under what condition and to what extent a decision maker should decompose to obtain an aggregate utility variance that is smaller than that of holistic assessments. Extensions of the current model and empirical research to support some of our behavioural assumptions are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Utility Functions: A Compromise Programming Approach to Specification and Optimization

Nowadays, utility theory and compromise programming (CP) are considered very different paradigms and methodologies to measure preferences as well as to determine decision maker's optima on an efficient frontier. In this paper, however, we show that a utility function with separate variables (presented in the form of a Taylor series around the ideal point) is reducible to a weighted sum of CP distances. This linkage between utility and compromise (based on a main assumption in which the usual utility functions hold) leads to (i) a method for specification and optimization of usual utility functions by operational technique and (ii) a reformulation of standard CP with the advantage of determining the best CP solution from a utility perspective. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.