An Approach to Multi‐Criteria Decision Problems Under Severe Uncertainty

Solving complex decision problems is a demanding task; it requires determining and evaluating the consequences of decision alternatives. To this end, uncertain factors that can only partly be influenced by the decision makers, and their interdependencies need to be considered. Scenarios focus on this part of the decision problem; they enable a systematic exploration of a multitude of possible future developments that are relevant for the decision including external events and decisions made. Scenarios are particularly useful when the problem is pervaded by severe uncertainties that cannot be quantified. For the evaluation of alternatives, multiple objectives and the potentially diverging preferences of the involved actors need to be respected. Multi‐criteria decision analysis aims at structuring the problem, evaluating the alternatives and supporting decision makers pursuing multiple goals. We propose an approach integrating scenarios and multi‐criteria decision analysis that focuses on the robustness of alternatives in complex, dynamic, uncertain and time‐bound situations. In this integrated framework, the scenarios provide the basis for evaluating a set of alternatives. Ideally, the set of scenarios considered captures all possible future developments. To appropriately explore this set, formal or analytical approaches to scenario construction generate a large number of scenarios. This challenges the decision makers' information‐processing capacity. To support them in managing the richness of information, a two‐fold approach that uses selection and aggregation is presented. By using a selection method, the scenarios that are deemed most relevant are identified, and their evaluations are presented in detail to decision makers. This approach is complemented by an aggregation of scenario evaluations on the basis of the decision makers' preferences. We present two approaches to facilitate the preference elicitation process. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE)

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE) is a novel paradigm for research in the behavioral, social, and health sciences. The MIDDLE approach is based on the seemingly impossible idea that data can be privately maintained by participants and never revealed to researchers, while still enabling statistical models to be fit and scientific hypotheses tested. MIDDLE rests on the assumption that participant data should belong to, be controlled by, and remain in the possession of the participants themselves. Distributed likelihood estimation refers to fitting statistical models by sending an objective function and vector of parameters to each participant’s personal device (e.g., smartphone, tablet, computer), where the likelihood of that individual’s data is calculated locally. Only the likelihood value is returned to the central optimizer. The optimizer aggregates likelihood values from responding participants and chooses new vectors of parameters until the model converges. A MIDDLE study provides significantly greater privacy for participants, automatic management of opt-in and opt-out consent, lower cost for the researcher and funding institute, and faster determination of results. Furthermore, if a participant opts into several studies simultaneously and opts into data sharing, these studies automatically have access to individual-level longitudinal data linked across all studies.     

The Effect of a Final Exam on Long-Term Retention

Testing on a final exam in a college course improved long-term retention over material that had not been tested on the final. Students from an upper level psychology course took a long-term retention test, four to five months after the end of the course. For half of the items, a related question had been on the final. For the remaining half, a related question had appeared on an earlier exam, but not the final. On the long-term retention test, percent correct was 79% when a related question had appeared on the final and 67% when a related question had not appeared on the final. These results have both theoretical and practical implications.     

The shared online whiteboard: An assistance tool to synchronous collaborative design

IntroductionThe work presented in this paper comes from an industrial need for the development of new support tools for remote collaborative design. Within this framework, we present a literature review on this concept and propose the development of an online collaborative whiteboard.ObjectiveThis study aims to determine whether or not shared whiteboards can be used for remote design task collaboration, in conjunction with online chat interactions. It additionally seeks to discover if the organization of relationships and interactions within groups alter the structure of task completion.MethodThis tool was evaluated through the remote design task of a data structure diagram with data collected from 42 computer science students. This approach was carried out through students in triads, separated into different rooms who communicated via online chat and/or whiteboard. There were two variables in this experimental design, the presence or absence of a project leader and the sequencing of exchanges (each member asked permission to use the tool). This experiment aimed to determine whether the task requested could be performed and if similarities to a natural situation could be observed. Data was collected from actions performed on the whiteboard and chat interactions. The observations were conducted using a verbal interactions observation grid that was taken from a natural synchronous collaborative design situation. It included different dimensions such as cognitive synchronization, the proposal and evaluation of solutions and non-task oriented interactions.ResultsThe results show that the tool allows students to collaborate. A variety of behaviors can be observed in terms of whiteboard usage and chat interactions that depend on the experimental conditions. This study shows that the tool may be used in a natural situation and that group consciousness and coordination are very important factors in this type of task. It is clear that the nature of the chat interaction depends on the role of the subject within the group. We also observed a high level of non-task oriented communication, which was more than we expected.ConclusionThe shared online whiteboard designed in this study allows for the completion of a collaborative design task with different groups structures.     

What Can be Done with an Egg? Creativity,Material Objects,and the Theory of Affordances

This article offers a reflection on the role of material objects in the creative process and explores the potential links between creativity and the theory of affordances (Gibson, 1986 ), conceptualized from a sociocultural perspective. From this standpoint, creativity can be defined as a process of perceiving, exploiting, and “generating” novel affordances during socially and materially situated activities. Illustrations are offered for each of the above from a research project investigating traditional Easter egg decoration activities in rural Romania. This brief case study exemplifies the discovery of existing action potentials, the generation of objects with novel affordances, and the transgression of conventional procedures, all resulting in creative forms of expression. In the end, some conclusions are drawn regarding the ways in which an affordance theory of creativity can enrich our understanding of the phenomenon and contribute to the development of a new program of research concerned with situated and distributed creative acts.     

The relationship between phonological processing and arithmetic in children with learning disabilities

Phonological processing skills have not only been shown to be important for reading skills, but also for arithmetic skills. Specifically, previous research in typically developing children has suggested that phonological processing skills may be more closely related to arithmetic problems that are solved through fact retrieval (e.g., remembering the solution from memory) than procedural computation (e.g., counting). However, the relationship between phonological processing and arithmetic in children with learning disabilities (LDs) has not been investigated. Yet, understanding these relationships in children with LDs is especially important because it can help elucidate the cognitive underpinnings of math difficulties, explain why reading and math disabilities frequently co-occur, and provide information on which cognitive skills to target for interventions. In 63 children with LDs, we examined the relationship between different phonological processing skills (phonemic awareness, phonological memory, and rapid serial naming) and arithmetic. We distinguished between arithmetic problems that tend to be solved with fact retrieval versus procedural computation to determine whether phonological processing skills are differentially related to these two arithmetic processes. We found that phonemic awareness, but not phonological memory or rapid serial naming, was related to arithmetic fact retrieval. We also found no association between any phonological processing skills and procedural computation. These results converge with prior research in typically developing children and suggest that phonemic awareness is also related to arithmetic fact retrieval in children with LD. These results raise the possibility that phonemic awareness training might improve both reading and arithmetic fact retrieval skills.

Research Highlights

• Relationships between phonological processing and various arithmetic skills were investigated in children with learning disabilities (LDs) for the first time.
• We found phonemic awareness was related to arithmetic involving fact retrieval, but not to arithmetic involving procedural computation in LDs.
• The results suggest that phonemic awareness is not only important to skilled reading, but also to some aspects of arithmetic.
• These results raise the question of whether intervention in phonemic awareness might improve arithmetic fact retrieval skills.

     

A competence framework for artificial intelligence research

ABSTRACT

While over the last few decades AI research has largely focused on building tools and applications, recent technological developments have prompted a resurgence of interest in building a genuinely intelligent artificial agent – one that has a mind in the same sense that humans and animals do. In this paper, I offer a theoretical and methodological framework for this project of investigating “artificial minded intelligence” (AMI) that can help to unify existing approaches and provide new avenues for research. I first outline three desiderata that a framework for AMI research should satisfy. In Section 1, I further motivate the desiderata as well as the need for a new framework. Section 2 develops a general methodological approach, the “generative methodology,” and Section 3 develops a version of this methodology, the “Competence Framework for AI research” (CFAI).     

Cognition and emotion: on paradigms and metaphors

ABSTRACT

The field of cognition and emotion is characterised as the cognitive psychology of evaluative and affective processes. The most important development in this field is the fruitful adoption of cognitive psychology paradigms to study automatic evaluation processes, for example. This has led to a plethora of findings and theories. Two points are emphasised: First, the (often metaphorical) theoretical way of thinking has changed over the decades. Theorising with symbolic models (e.g. semantic networks), which was prevalent in earlier years, has been replaced more recently by subsymbolic models (i.e. PDP models). It is argued that – despite their still metaphorical character – the latter are better suited to capturing characteristics of emotional processes. Second, the field has adopted the methods of experimental cognitive psychology to develop and refine paradigms as “windows to the mind”.     

现代世界观中的意识及其哲学难题从《太玄》看量子计算数制问题的两难境遇

数制体系是描述计算过程的基础工具,传统的二进制体系在经典计算机发展中起着至关重要的作用,这是毫无疑问的。但面对新型的量子计算,如何建立与之相适应的数制体制,却成为一个疑难问题。本文主要从中国古代以《太玄》为代表的"三性"思想出发,对量子计算建立数制的两难境遇进行了分析,结果指出,量子计算在本质上与经典计算不同的根本差别是量子纠缠性,其刻画的不仅仅是物质不可分别的波粒二象本性,也同样刻画了逻辑不可描述的真假同显本性。这样一来,要建立量子计算数制描述体系,就必然落入这样一种两难境遇:要么借用经典数制体系来模拟量子计算过程的描述,但不可能真正把握量子纠缠性的本性;要么就根本找不到可以描述这种具有"和合性"特点的数制体系。