Breadth versus depth: Cumulative risk model and continuous measure prediction of poor language and reading outcomes at 12

This study examines whether, and how, multiple risks in early childhood are associated with an increased likelihood of a poor language or literacy outcome in early adolescence. Using data from 210 participants in the longitudinal Twins Early Developmental Study, we focus on the following risk factors at age 4: family risk, and poor language, speech, emergent literacy and nonverbal skills. The outcomes of interest at age 12 are language, reading fluency and reading comprehension. We contrast a ‘cumulative risk’ model, counting the presence or absence of each risk factor (breadth), with a model that also considers the severity of the early deficits (depth). A ‘cumulative risk index’ correlated modestly but significantly with outcome (r = 0.32–0.40). Odds ratios confirmed that having many risk factors (3–6) confers a higher probability of a poor outcome (OR 7.86–17.71) than having one or two (OR 3.65–7.28). Logistic regression models showed that predictive validity is not improved by including information about the severity of each deficit. Even with rich information on children's risk status at age 4, we can make only a moderately accurate prediction of the likelihood of a language or literacy disorder 8 years later (Area Under the Curve = 0.74–0.84; Positive Predictive Value = 0.33–0.55, Negative Predictive Value = 0.86–0.91). Taken together, and consistent with the idea of ‘cumulative risk’, these results suggest that the breadth of risk is a core predictor of outcome, and furthermore, that the severity of early deficits does not add significantly to this prediction.     

One of the troubles with outcome measures: Lost in translation

This paper presents the concerns of a client diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder about completing outcome measures. He was asked to complete CORE‐10 each time he attended a therapy session with the first author. This paper takes an epistemological position of co‐production, and written in response to the client's concerns, but this is limited by the client's wish and capacity to be involved in the writing up of this article. Implications of his experiences are drawn out for both clients with this diagnosis and more generally for all clients. Recommendations are made to recognise the limitations of measures and how to use outcome measures with more validity.     

Constrained Choice: Children's and Adults’ Attribution of Choice to a Humanoid Robot

Young children, like adults, understand that human agents can flexibly choose different actions in different contexts, and they evaluate these agents based on such choices. However, little is known about children's tendencies to attribute the capacity to choose to robots, despite increased contact with robotic agents. In this paper, we compare 5- to 7-year-old children's and adults’ attributions of free choice to a robot and to a human child by using a series of tasks measuring agency attribution, action prediction, and choice attribution. In morally neutral scenarios, children ascribed similar levels of free choice to the robot and the human, while adults were more likely to ascribe free choice to the human. For morally relevant scenarios, however, both age groups considered the robot's actions to be more constrained than the human's actions. These findings demonstrate that children and adults hold a nuanced understanding of free choice that is sensitive to both the agent type and constraints within a given scenario.     

矛盾态度对决策后自我评价的影响：有中介的双阶段调节作用

矛盾态度不仅影响信息搜索、态度形成和决策行为, 而且影响决策后自我评价。本研究构建了一个基于不确定性的中介作用、决策困难水平和结果效价的双调节作用的矛盾态度与决策后自我评价关系模型, 3个实验通过设计冲突情境对矛盾态度进行操纵, 冲突情境包括选择一所大学和就业企业, 运用SPSS 20.0软件对数据进行分析, 发现矛盾态度对决策后自我评价存在积极影响, 矛盾态度通过不确定性影响决策后自我评价的中介过程受到决策困难水平和结果效价的调节。矛盾态度和决策困难水平对不确定性产生影响, 不确定性和结果效价对决策后自我评价产生影响, 由于不确定性的分离效应, 使矛盾态度和决策困难水平对决策后自我评价产生相互冲突的双重作用结果。当获得负面结果时, 相较于低决策困难水平, 高决策困难水平的个体, 矛盾态度通过不确定性对决策后自我评价产生积极影响; 当获得正面结果时, 相较于高决策困难水平, 低决策困难水平的个体, 矛盾态度通过不确定性对决策后自我评价产生积极影响。     

基于正念的干预与自我同情的关系：一项元分析

运用元分析方法对国内外有关基于正念的干预与自我同情的关系问题进行了探讨, 通过文献检索, 纳入文献65篇, 总样本量为8103。异质性检验发现, 选择随机效应模型比较合适; 敏感性分析显示, 使用One-study removed逐步删除异质性较高研究, 基于正念的干预与自我同情呈显著正相关; 次群体检验表明, 基于正念的干预与自我同情关系受对比方式的调节与影响, 但不受群体和测量工具的影响。研究结果表明, 正念对自我同情水平会产生不同程度的积极影响, 同时随着对比方式的不同对基于正念的干预与自我同情的关系会产生不同的调节作用, 而群体和测量工具对基于正念的干预与自我同情的关系并无调节效应。     

Tobacco Use Predicts Treatment Dropout and Outcome in an Acute,Transdiagnostic Psychiatric Treatment Setting

Tobacco use is consistently associated with greater levels of depression and anxiety, broadly, and preliminary evidence suggests that current tobacco use is a significant predictor of dropout from psychiatric treatment. The current study extends past work to examine the impact of tobacco use on treatment dropout and outcomes in an acute psychiatric treatment setting. Upon intake to a partial hospitalization program (PHP), patients completed a battery of measures assessing sociodemographic characteristics, current tobacco use, depression and generalized anxiety, and substance use. Patients at the PHP also completed measures assessing levels of depression and generalized anxiety again upon discharge from the program. In line with hypotheses, current tobacco use was a significant predictor of dropout from treatment at the PHP. Importantly, this relationship remained significant when statistically controlling for demographic variables and psychiatric and substance use severity (such as number of previous inpatient psychiatric hospitalizations and degree of alcohol or drug problems). Results from the current study indicate that tobacco use is a significant risk factor for treatment dropout. Further research is needed to replicate these findings and to determine the mechanism underlying this link between tobacco use and treatment dropout for people receiving intensive psychiatric care.     

Neurocognitive outcomes in children with unilateral basal ganglia arterial ischemic stroke and secondary hemidystonia

Dystonia is a movement disorder that involves excessive, involuntary muscle contractions resulting in repetitive movements and/or abnormal posturing. One common cause of unilateral dystonia in childhood is ischemic stroke involving the basal ganglia and/or thalamus. Virtually nothing is known about neuropsychological outcomes in children who have dystonia following basal ganglia stroke. The present study explored whether or not children with secondary dystonia experience additional cognitive challenges when compared to children with similar patterns of brain injury, but no dystonia. We examined intellectual function, academics, and several aspects of executive function in children with unilateral basal ganglia stroke during childhood, comparing those with dystonia and those without. Although groups did not differ in terms of lesion size, we found significantly lower performance on measures of verbal and nonverbal reasoning, inhibitory control, and academic ability in children with secondary dystonia compared to those without. In contrast, there were no significant group differences on parent ratings of their child’s executive function in daily life. These findings suggest that maladaptive reorganization following basal ganglia stroke may contribute to the development of secondary dystonia and also to poor intellectual and academic outcomes in this group.     

Challenges to addressing student mental health in embedded counselling services: a survey of UK higher and further education institutions

With reports continually demonstrating increased demand and severity of student mental health needs, it is important to gain a fuller understanding of the impact on embedded student counselling services. The aims of this research were to identify (a) service similarities, (b) factors which impact on services, (c) characteristics of service users, and (d) the use of therapeutic technology (e.g. online self-help). An online survey was completed by 113 heads of UK student counselling services across Higher Education (HE), Further Education (FE), and Sixth Form Colleges (SFCs), to capture service data from the academic year 2013/14. Students predominantly received high-intensity support (e.g. counselling) and referrals increased over 3 years. Challenges to embedded counselling services and their implications for development are discussed.     

Better Safe than Sorry: Risking Irresponsibility by Seeking Uncertainty

Research findings differ as to whether choosing a risky option is an efficient strategy for decision makers seeking to avoid responsibility for potential failures. A risky choice may leave the final outcome to chance factors, but the decision maker can still be held responsible for choosing risk. Further, it is unclear whether a risky choice is a responsible choice. The present article investigates the putative relationship between risk‐taking and responsibility by drawing a distinction between being responsible for the outcome (R1) versus acting responsibly (R2). Four experiments were performed, in which participants were presented with scenarios describing decision makers facing a choice between a risky (uncertain) option and a riskless (certain) option, framed in terms of losses or equivalent gains. The results showed that decision makers who chose the risky alternative were judged to have acted in a less responsible manner (R2), while still being held equally responsible for the outcome (R1), unless they were ignorant of the risks involved. Choosing risk did not absolve decision makers from blame, despite being less causal and less in control than those who chose the riskless option. Risky decision makers were also judged to be more personally involved. The dissociation between R1 and R2 ratings confirms earlier findings and serves to clarify an alleged relationship between risky choices and responsibility aversion. Framing effects for own choices were found in both scenarios. In contrast, responsibility ratings were only slightly affected by frame. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence

Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely) and translated to numeric probability equivalents. This subset showed very good calibration and discrimination, but also underconfidence. There was no support for the hypothesis that forecasting skill was good mainly because of the general ease of forecasting topics. First, forecasting skill was as good among authoritative key judgments as in the general set. Second, forecasts that were assigned high degrees of certainty, indicative of ease, (p ≤ 0.05 or p ≥ 0.95) did not discriminate as well as less certain forecasts (0.05 < p < 0.95), and these subsets did not differ in calibration. Sensitivity and benchmarking tests further revealed that if the 1609 uncodable forecasts were all assigned forecast probabilities of .5 (i.e., if all followed a “cautious ignorance” rule), skill characteristics would still show a large effect size improvement over a variety of guesswork strategies. The findings support a cautiously optimistic assessment of forecasting skill in strategic intelligence and indicate that such skill is not primarily attributable to the selection of easy forecasting topics. However, the large proportion of uncodable cases suggests that intelligence forecasts could be improved by avoiding imprecise language that affects not only the codability but also, in all likelihood, the interpretability and indicative value of forecasts for intelligence consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.