An information - expectation framework for decisions under uncertainty

Despite being in existence for many decades, normative decision theory has not become a commonly used tool for real-world decisions. This paper considers the reasons for this situation and suggestions for circumventing them. The main suggestion involves a two-stage framework in terms of the information available to the decision maker and his/her expectations under the available acts. This framework is well suited for decisions with incomplete structure, which is typical of real decision situations. Within this framework a specific multiplicative model is also discussed.     

Out-of-bag Prediction Error: A Cross Validation Index for Generalized Structured Component Analysis

Cross validation is a useful way of comparing predictive generalizability of theoretically plausible a priori models in structural equation modeling (SEM). A number of overall or local cross validation indices have been proposed for existing factor-based and component-based approaches to SEM, including covariance structure analysis and partial least squares path modeling. However, there is no such cross validation index available for generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) which is another component-based approach. We thus propose a cross validation index for GSCA, called Out-of-bag Prediction Error (OPE), which estimates the expected prediction error of a model over replications of so-called in-bag and out-of-bag samples constructed through the implementation of the bootstrap method. The calculation of this index is well-suited to the estimation procedure of GSCA, which uses the bootstrap method to obtain the standard errors or confidence intervals of parameter estimates. We empirically evaluate the performance of the proposed index through the analyses of both simulated and real data.     

激励理论及其综合模型的新发展

激励是组织行为学的一个重要研究领域。本文概述了传统的激励理论、满意感理论在近年的研究新成果和新动向,并对激励理论的三大综合模型(聚合模型、新范式模型和混合模型)作了分析。最后提出了未来激励研究的四个方向。     

Choice, changeover, and travel: A quantitative model

Six pigeons were trained on concurrent variable-interval schedules in which responding on fixed-interval schedules was required to give access to the alternate schedule. Responding on the concurrent schedules was not allowed, after changing over had commenced, until the changeover schedule had been completed. In Parts 1 to 3 of the experiment, the changeover fixed-interval schedules were equal and were 0 s, 10 s, and 20 s, respectively. In each part, the relative frequency of reinforcement obtained on the concurrent schedules was varied over at least five conditions. In Part 4, the concurrent schedules were equal, and one changeover fixed-interval schedule was twice the other. Under these conditions, the absolute sizes of the changeover schedules were varied. Increasing the changeover requirement from 0 s to 10 s (Parts 1 and 2) resulted in increases in the sensitivity of behavior allocation to reinforcers obtained, but no further increase was obtained when the changeover schedules were increased to 20 s (Part 3). In Part 4, performance was biased towards the concurrent schedule that took less time to enter. These results are consistent with a subtractive punishment model of travel in which the degree of punishment is measured by the number of reinforcers apparently lost from a schedule when the subject changes to that schedule. Absolute times spent on the main keys could be accurately described by a previous model of changeover performance.     

Landmark-based spatial search in honeybees. I.

Honeybees were trained to find sugar water in the middle of an array of two landmarks of different colours. Unrewarded tests compared searching on the training array with searching on rotated arrays. On rotated tests, a system using the angles between landmarks would continue to search in the middle. A system using vectors to individual elements would search at locations outside the rotated array at which the distances and compass directions to a subset of landmarks matched. Results indicated that bees used both elements and interlandmark angles, but they relied most on one favourite landmark element. Results support the template model of landmark use in honeybees, with the minor parametric modification that weights given to different elements may be unequal. Received:6 July 1998 / Accepted after revision:7 December 1998     

Influence analysis of structural equation models with polytomous variables

The estimation of model parameters in structural equation models with polytomous variables can be handled by several computationally efficient procedures. However, sensitivity or influence analysis of the model is not well studied. We demonstrate that the existing influence analysis methods for contingency tables or for normal theory structural equation models cannot be applied directly to structural equation models with polytomous variables; and we develop appropriate procedures based on the local influence approach of Cook (1986). The proposed procedures are computationally efficient, the necessary bits of the proposed diagnostic measures are readily available following an usual fit of the model. We consider the influence of an individual cell frequency with respect to three cases: when all parameters in an unstructured model are of interest, when the unstructured polychoric correlations are of interest, and when the structural parameters are of interest. We also consider the sensitivity of the parameters estimates. Two examples based on real data are presented for illustration.The work described in this paper was partially supported by a Chinese University of Hong Kong Postdoctoral Fellows Scheme and a grant from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (RGC Ref. No. CUHK4186/98P). We are indebted to P.M. Bentler and M.D. Newcomb for providing the data set, Michael Leung for his assistance, and the Editor and the referees for some very valuable comments.     

A Systems/Dialectical Model of Supervision: A Symbolic Process

Although there has been a proliferation of models of supervision in the marriage and family therapy literature recently, most tend to focus on methods rather than on the process of supervision. The model presented here is grounded in developmental concepts and focuses on student learning through a dialectical process of cognitive and emotional growth and incorporates three stages: 1) developing relationships; 2) breaking impasses, and 3) orchestrating changes. Students discover that supervision becomes isomorphic with relationship issues that arise in their therapy sessions. Dialectical in nature in that each stage is characterized by the resolution of contradictory emotions, the supervision process helps supervisees experience emotional shifts in their interactions with others, referred to as emotional restructuring.     

Characterization of controlled gamblers and pathological gamblers using the social representation theory

Introduction

In industrialized countries, gambling disorder tends to become a major issue. The use of the social representation theory provides clues for a better understanding of pathological gamblers.