Risk perception and risky choice: Situational, informational and dispositional effects

We investigated how situational (gain–loss), informational (opportunity–threat framing) and dispositional (achievement motive and avoidance motive) variables affected opportunity–threat perception and risky choice in managerial decision-making contexts. In Study 1, the risk preference of the participants showed a reflection effect due to situational differences (gain or loss) and a partial framing effect caused by presenting the same choice information in terms of either opportunities or threats. However, both effects were in the opposite direction of predictions from prospect theory. Gains and positive framing enhanced risk-seeking preference whereas losses and negative framing augmented risk-averse preference. Risk-seeking choices were mediated by opportunity perception whereas risk-averse choices were mediated by threat perception. In Study 2, the participants high in achievement motive perceived greater opportunities in a negative situation, and the participants high in avoidance motive perceived greater threats in a positive situation, suggesting that ambition (achievement motive) operates more significantly in the face of adversities whereas cautiousness (avoidance motive) functions more significantly in prosperity.     

Probability, logic and the cognitive foundations of rational belief

Since Pascal introduced the idea of mathematical probability in the 17th century discussions of uncertainty and “rational” belief have been dogged by philosophical and technical disputes. Furthermore, the last quarter century has seen an explosion of new questions and ideas, stimulated by developments in the computer and cognitive sciences. Competing ideas about probability are often driven by different intuitions about the nature of belief that arise from the needs of different domains (e.g., economics, management theory, engineering, medicine, the life sciences etc). Taking medicine as our focus we develop three lines of argument (historical, practical and cognitive) that suggest that traditional views of probability cannot accommodate all the competing demands and diverse constraints that arise in complex real-world domains. A model of uncertain reasoning based on a form of logical argumentation appears to unify many diverse ideas. The model has precursors in informal discussions of argumentation due to Toulmin, and the notion of logical probability advocated by Keynes, but recent developments in artificial intelligence and cognitive science suggest ways of resolving epistemological and technical issues that they could not address.     

快速节俭启发式--基于有限理性和生态理性的简单决策规则

本文阐述了德国“马克斯．普朗克人类发展研究所”以Gerd Gigerenzer教授为代表的“适应行为与认知中心”简称“ABC研究中心(组)”关于判断、推理和决策制定简单启发式研究的理论背景、研究思路和技术路线,着重介绍了该研究中心在有限理性和生态理性假设基础上提出的一系列极富创意的快速节俭启发式规则,并对围绕这些简单决策规则开展的研究活动作了简要介绍。     

中小学生阅读图文课文的眼动实验研究

本研究采用眼动方法,对85名小五、实二和高二年级学生阅读图文课文的阅读理解指标和眼动指标进行考察。结果表明：（1）学生阅读不同呈现方式和难度课文的阅读理解指标和眼动指标,一般都具有明显的年龄发展特征;（2）学生阅读不同呈现方式课文的阅读理解指标和眼动指标,有图课文大多显著优于无图课文;（3）学生阅读不同难度课文的阅读理解指标和眼动指标,易课文显著优于难课文。     

婚姻关系、亲子关系对3～6岁幼儿心理行为问题的影响

采用CBCL量表、自编的婚姻关系和亲子关系问卷调查了6所城市幼儿园的457名3～6岁幼儿,结果发现：(1)本研究中3～6岁幼儿心理行为问题的检出率为15．10％;(2)3-6岁幼儿的心理行为问题主要表现为交往不良、攻击性等外部行为问题;(3)没有心理行为问题的幼儿家庭其婚姻关系在性格相容、问题解决和性生活方面显著优于有心理行为问题的幼儿家庭,但在经济条件方面则相反;(4)婚姻关系和亲子关系则呈显著的正相关,并共同影响幼儿的心理行为问题。     

论宏观经济调控和管理中的若干伦理问题

宏观经济调控和管理中的伦理问题,是一个不可忽视的领域。中国是一个发展中国家,正处在从传统经济向现代市场经济转型,政府的宏观调控不可或缺;同时政府作为经济活动的主体,其行为也必须遵守适应市场经济运作的规则。     

“亚当·斯密问题”的逻辑张力

“亚当·斯密问题”是指斯密的《国富论》与《道德情操论》之间存在着对立或不一致的问题,最初由十九世纪中叶的德国历史学派所提出。此后,随着现实与理论的发展,出现了不同的看法。学者们普遍认为,斯密的两大著作之间、经济学与伦理学之间存在着对立或者不存在对立,而是相互一致的。这些看法都具有各自的积极合理的内容,但缺乏辩证的观点,而没有看到“斯密问题”自身的逻辑张力,也就是说,“斯密问题”所指涉的是现实的经济与伦理之间及作为其理论表现的经济学与伦理学之间的关系。“斯密问题”所含的这些关系呈现出了一个动态的、由肯定到否定再到否定之否定的辩证过程。     

现代西方善恶评价理论述评

善恶评价的性质和善恶评价的真理性问题是伦理学研究的难点问题。现代西方伦理学界对此问题也多有探讨。对现代西方善恶评价理论的主要观点的介绍,有助于我们深化善恶评价问题的研究。     

论中国文化的情理精神

“情理”这一特殊范畴表达了儒学与中国化中一种情理交溶,以情为源和本,以理为鹄和用的特有化精神。基于传统社会的情理精神与现代理性精神是相冲突的,建立在情理精神基础上的人治传统更可能对现代社会的法治起到巨大的破坏作用。     

诚信的道德价值

信用是市场经济运行的道德基础;信誉是企业良性发展的基石;诚信不仅是人际交往的基础,也是个人自我完善的要求。