Reference-dependent expected utility with incomplete preferences

An important reason why people deviate from expected utility is reference-dependence of preferences, implying loss aversion. Bleichrodt [Bleichrodt H. (2007). Reference-dependent utility with shifting reference points and incomplete preferences. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 51, 266-276] argued that in the empirically realistic case where the reference point is always an element of the decision maker’s opportunity set, reference-dependent preferences have to be taken as incomplete. This incompleteness is a consequence of reference-dependence and is different in nature from the type of incompleteness usually considered in the literature. It cannot be handled by existing characterizations of reference-dependence, which all assume complete preferences. This paper presents new preference foundations that extend reference-dependent expected utility to cover this case of incompleteness caused by reference-dependence. The paper uses intuitive axioms that are easy to test. Two special cases of reference-dependent expected utility are also characterized: one model in which utility is decomposed into a normative and a psychological component and one model in which loss aversion is constant. The latter model has been frequently used in empirical research on reference-dependence.     

A tutorial on partially observable Markov decision processes

The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model of environments was first explored in the engineering and operations research communities 40 years ago. More recently, the model has been embraced by researchers in artificial intelligence and machine learning, leading to a flurry of solution algorithms that can identify optimal or near-optimal behavior in many environments represented as POMDPs. The purpose of this article is to introduce the POMDP model to behavioral scientists who may wish to apply the framework to the problem of understanding normative behavior in experimental settings. The article includes concrete examples using a publicly-available POMDP solution package.     

Income Volatility and Psychological Depression

Income volatility appears to be increasing especially among lower income workers. Such volatility may reflect the ongoing shift of economic risk from employers to employees as marked by decreasing job security and employer-provided benefits. This study tests whether absolute volatility or downward volatility in income predict depression controlling for prior depression. A sample (n = 4,493) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) with depression (CESD) measured at age 40 and prior depression measured eight to 10 years earlier was utilized. Downward volatility (frequency of income loss) was positively associated with depression; adjusting for downward volatility and other covariates, absolute volatility was negatively associated with depression. An interaction indicated a positive association between downward volatility and depression only when absolute volatility was high. These findings apply to respondents in a narrow age range (30 s) and the results warrant replication to identify the mediators linking absolute volatility and income loss to depression.     

Development of adolescence‐limited,late‐onset,and persistent offenders from age 8 to age 48

This article investigates the life success at ages 32 and 48 of four categories of males: nonoffenders, adolescence‐limited offenders (convicted only at ages 10–20), late‐onset offenders (convicted only at ages 21–50), and persistent offenders (convicted at both ages 10–20 and 21–50). In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 411 South London males have been followed up from age 8 to 48 in repeated personal interviews. There was considerable continuity in offending over time. Persistent offenders had the longest criminal careers (averaging 18.4 years), and most of them had convictions for violence. Persistent offenders were leading the most unsuccessful lives at ages 32 and 48, although all categories of males became more successful with age. By age 48, the life success of adolescence‐limited offenders was similar to that of nonoffenders. The most important risk factors at ages 8–18 that predicted which offenders would persist after age 21 were heavy drinking at age 18, hyperactivity at ages 12–14, and low popularity and harsh discipline at ages 8–10. The most important risk factors that predicted which nonoffenders would onset after age 21 were poor housing and low nonverbal IQ at ages 8–10, high neuroticism at age 16, and anti‐establishment attitudes and motoring convictions at age 18. It was suggested that nervousness and neuroticism may have protected children at risk from offending in adolescence and the teenage years. Aggr. Behav. 35:150–163, 2009. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Topographies and functions of emerging problem behavior and appropriate requests in neurotypical preschoolers

The current study builds on a small but growing body of research evaluating the formal and functional characteristics of emerging problem behavior before it becomes harmful and requires costly treatment. The researchers tested 21 preschool children's sensitivity to establishing operations that commonly precede severe problem behavior. Sensitivity tests were embedded in a small group play context to optimize safety, efficiency, and ecological validity. The tests screened several levels of problem-behavior severity as well as the presence of adaptive alternatives (i.e., communication) to problem behavior. Overall, outcomes suggested sources of reinforcement for minor- and moderate-severity problem behavior in 86% of children. Only 17% of children exhibiting problem behavior also engaged in appropriate requests in the same condition(s) as problem behavior. The present data are compared to published functional analyses of severe behavior. The results are discussed as a preliminary step towards a function-based model of risk identification and behavioral prevention of severe problem behavior.     

Comparison of delay discounting of different outcomes in cigarette smokers,smokeless tobacco users,e-cigarette users,and non-tobacco users

Delay discounting is the process by which a commodity loses value as the delay to its receipt increases. Rapid discounting predicts various maladaptive behaviors including tobacco use. Typically, delay discounting of different outcomes has been compared between cigarette smokers and nonsmokers. To better understand the relationship of delay discounting to different modes of tobacco use, we examined the differences in delay discounting of different outcomes between cigarette smokers, smokeless tobacco users, e-cigarette users, and non-tobacco users. In the present study, all participants completed 8 titrating delay-discounting tasks: $100 gain, $500 gain, $500 loss, alcohol, entertainment, food, a temporary health gain, and a temporary cure from a disease. Non-tobacco users discounted most outcomes less than tobacco users overall; however, there were no differences in discounting among the different types of tobacco users. These results suggest that nicotine consumption of any kind is associated with a higher degree of impulsivity compared to non-tobacco users. Adoption of tobacco products that have been perceived as less harmful (e.g., e-cigarettes) is not associated with a baseline difference or decrease in delay discounting if adopted after a history of cigarette use.     

情景预见对跨期决策的影响机制

为了探究情景预见对跨期决策的影响机制, 研究采用延迟折扣任务范式, 检验了在情景预见对跨期决策的影响中延迟时间知觉起到的中介作用。两个实验分别操纵了情景预见中未来事件与自我有关的信息和未来事件的情绪特征, 结果均发现情景预见通过改变个体对延迟等待时间的时距知觉影响了跨期决策。想象与自己、与母亲有关的未来事件, 想象积极、中性情绪效价的未来事件都使得被试将延迟等待时间知觉为较短的时间段, 更倾向于选择延迟奖励。想象消极情绪效价的未来事件使得被试将延迟等待时间知觉为较长的时间段, 更加偏好即时奖励。本研究有助于增进人们对情景预见影响跨期决策现象的理解。     

“涟漪效应”与“心理台风眼效应”：不同程度COVID-19疫情地区民众风险认知与焦虑的双视角检验

在因防控COVID-19疫情武汉“封城”后的一个半月内, 对全国34个省(区市)4833名民众的风险认知与焦虑进行了当事人视角和旁观者视角的调查研究。结果表明, (1)基于当事人视角时, 不同程度疫情地区民众的风险认知和焦虑存在类似“涟漪效应”的趋势, 疫情严重地区大于其他地区; (2)基于旁观者视角, 民众对武汉居民的焦虑和对所需心理咨询工作者和医生数量的评估存在“心理台风眼效应”; (3)基于旁观者视角, 在风险认知上, 低风险地区民众对武汉居民的评估显著低于高、中高及中风险地区的评估, 部分支持“涟漪效应”; 研究还发现了“边缘带效应”和“心理可控阈限”的存在。本研究一方面为“心理台风眼效应”研究的“当事人与旁观者”视角知觉差异提供了更为丰富的直接证据, 另一方面为突发公共卫生事件应急管理提供了有针对性的心理依据。     

Does betrayal aversion really guide trust decisions towards strangers?

Trust is a double-edged sword. When warranted, it leads to positive and rewarding interactions. When not, it leads to disappointment and anger. Therefore, it has been argued that people will display “betrayal aversion” in trust situations (i.e., avoid trusting to avoid betrayal). Yet, people also feel tense and uneasy when they signal distrust to another person and thus show signs of “principled trustfulness” (i.e., choosing to trust others although being skeptical of their trustworthiness). These two theoretical orientations imply directly opposite influences on trust behavior. Thus, we conducted two laboratory studies (with a total of 841 participants) with binary trust games (implying a risk of being betrayed) and extended lottery games (implying no such risk). In both studies, we varied the payoff structures of both games. Further, we made sure that the average perceived likelihood of winning or losing money when choosing the risky option was identical in both games, as was the distribution of these likelihoods. Neither study showed any sign of betrayal aversion. Rather, participants were more willing to risk their money in the trust game than they were to invest their money in a lottery, supporting the principled trustfulness view. We discuss possible explanations why, unlike previous studies, we did not find any indication of betrayal aversion.     

Inconsistencies in repeated refugee status decisions

Consistency in civil servant decisions is paramount to upholding judicial equality for citizens and individuals seeking safety through governmental intervention. We investigated refugee status decisions made by a sample of civil servants at the Swedish Migration Agency. We hypothesized, based on the emotional demands such decisions bring with them, that participants would exhibit a compassion fade effect such that refugee status was less likely to be granted over time. To test this, we administered a questionnaire containing brief presentations of asylum seekers and asked participants to judge how likely they would be to give refugee status to the person. Crucially the first, middle, and final case presented were matched on decision relevant characteristics. Consistent with our hypothesis, we saw a significant decline in ratings. These effects were accentuated by the amount of time a participant had worked at the agency, consistent with depletion of affective resources, and attenuated in workers with greater responsibility and additional training. We conclude that active regulation of empathic and affective responses to asylum seekers may play a role in determining the outcome in refugee status decisions.