The Sunk Costs Fallacy or Argument from Waste

This project tackles the problem of analyzing a specific form of reasoning called sunk costs in economics and argument from waste in argumentation theory. The project is to build a normative structure representing the form of the argument, and then to apply this normative structure to actual cases in which the sunk costs argument has been used. The method is partly structural and partly empirical. The empirical part is carried out through the analysis of case studies of the sunk costs argument found in business decision-making, as well as other areas like medical decision-making and everyday conversational argumentation. The structural part is carried out by using existing methods and techniques from argumentation theory, like argumentation schemes. The project has three especially significant findings. First, the sunk costs argument is not always fallacious, and in many cases it can be seen to be a rational precommitment strategy. Second, a formal model of argumentation, called practical reasoning, can be constructed that helps a rational critic to judge which sunk costs arguments are fallacious and which are not. Third, this formal model represents an alternative model of rationality to the cost-benefit model based on Bayesian calculation of probabilities. This alternative model is called the argumentation model, and it is based on interpersonal reasoning in dialogue as the model of rational thinking. This model in turn is based on the underlying notion of commitment in dialogue.     

Questions of culture,age and gender in the epidemiology of suicide

Cultural values were examined as predictors of suicide incidence rates compiled for men and women in six age groups for 33 nations for the years 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985. Hofstede's cultural values of Power-Distance, Uncertainty Avoidance, and Masculinity (i.e., social indifference) were negative correlates of reported suicide, and Individualism was a strong positive correlate. The proportion of variance in suicide reports generally related to these four cultural values was R2 = 0.25. Suicide by women and by middle-aged people was most related to cultural values, even though international variance in suicide is greater for men and for the elderly. Suicide incidence for girls and young women showed unique negative correlations with Individualism. For all age groups, Individualism predicted a greater preponderance of male suicides, and Power-Distance predicted more similar male and female suicide rates. Social alienation and Gilligan's feminist theory of moral judgment were hypothesized to explain some gender differences.     

Area under the curve as a measure of discounting

We describe a novel approach to the measurement of discounting based on calculating the area under the empirical discounting function. This approach avoids some of the problems associated with measures based on estimates of the parameters of theoretical discounting functions. The area measure may be easily calculated for both individual and group data collected using any of a variety of current delay and probability discounting procedures. The present approach is not intended as a substitute for theoretical discounting models. It is useful, however, to have a simple, univariate measure of discounting that is not tied to any specific theoretical framework.     

粤港澳大湾区大学生前创业行动及受到政策与心理因素的影响研究

对315名粤港澳大湾区大学生进行问卷调查,分析他们前创业行动的情况并采用logistic回归研究其影响因素。结果发现,大学生前创业行动的参与度较为积极,但仍有进一步提升空间。而且,大学生的前创业行动受到了创业效能感、创业意愿和个体背景等内部因素的影响; 以及受到了创业政策熟悉度、大学生家庭所在地创业环境等外部变量的影响。研究结果对高校针对性开展创业教育具有一定的指导意义。     

To cross or not to cross: Impact of visual and auditory cues on pedestrians’ crossing decision-making

The controlled study of pedestrians’ crossing decision-making is relevant to the search for better safety conditions for this class of vulnerable road users. Several risk factors have been identified in the literature related to the crosswalks’ surrounding environment, the socio-demographic characteristics of the pedestrians crossing the road and the place where the crosswalks are inserted, as well as situational variables, such as speed and distance of the approaching vehicle during the crossing. In this work, the roles of visual and auditory cues in crossing decisions were analysed, comparing different speeds and distances, and taking into consideration different speed patterns of the approaching vehicle, aiming to identify what can affect pedestrians’ crossing behaviour. Experiments were performed in a virtual environment. Participants were presented with 10 different stimuli featuring a vehicle approaching with different speeds and movement patterns, combined with 2 auditory conditions: one concerning a vehicle with a gasoline combustion engine and another one with no sound cues. Participants were tasked with indicating the moment they decided to cross the street when they thought it was safe to do so by pressing a response button. Percentage of crossings, response time (RT), and time-to-passage (TTP) were recorded and subsequently analysed. The results showed that lower speeds and higher distances lead to higher percentages of crossings and RTs. The auditory condition did not significantly affect participants’ responses, leading to the conclusion that participants’ crossing decision was especially based on their visual perception of the movement characteristics of the approaching vehicle, particularly its speed and distance. These results may have relevance for the development of communication strategies between the vehicles, especially the automated ones, and pedestrians.     

What is a face worth? Facial attractiveness biases experience-based monetary decision-making

There is ample evidence that attractive individuals, across diverse domains, are judged more favourably. But most research has focused on single/one-shot decisions, where decision-makers receive no feedback following their decisions, and outcomes of their judgements are inconsequential to the self. Would attractive individuals still be judged favourably in experience-based decision-making where people make iterative decisions and receive consequential feedback (money gained/lost) following each decision? To investigate this question, participants viewed headshots of four financial partners presented side-by-side and repeatedly (over 50–100 trials) selected partners that would help maximize their profits. Following every partner-selection, participants received feedback about the net monetary gains/losses the partner had conferred. Unbeknownst to participants, two partners (one attractive, one unattractive) were equally advantageous (conferred net-gains overtime) and two partners (one attractive and one unattractive) were equally disadvantageous (conferred net-losses overtime). Even though attractive and unattractive partners were equally profitable and despite receiving feedback, participants selected attractive partners more throughout the task were quicker to reselect them even when they conferred losses and judged them as more helpful. Indeed, attractive-disadvantageous partners were preferred to the same extent (or more) as unattractive-advantageous partners. Importantly, the effect of attractiveness on decision-making was fully explained by the perceived trustworthiness of the financial partners.     

Autonomous motivation,cardiorespiratory fitness,and exercise in rheumatoid arthritis: Randomised controlled trial

ObjectiveRheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease, characterised by high-grade systemic inflammation, pain, and swollen joints. RA patients have an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study examined if a 3-month individualised RA-tailored exercise programme with one-on-one Self-Determination Theory (SDT)-based support for physical activity (PA) facilitated autonomous motivation, increased PA behaviour, and induced greater improvements in cardiovascular and RA-related disease characteristics, and wellbeing in RA, compared to a standard provision tailored exercise programme.Methods115 RA patients were randomised into either the SDT-based psychological intervention + exercise programme (experimental group) or an exercise programme only (control group). Cardiorespiratory fitness (primary outcome), self-reported PA, disease characteristics, CVD risk, wellbeing, and SDT constructs were assessed at baseline (pre-intervention), 3 months (post-intervention), 6 months, and 12 months follow-up. Mixed linear modeling was used to examine within- and between participant changes in these outcome measures.ResultsIn 88 patients with complete baseline data, cardiorespiratory fitness did not change from baseline to 3-, 6- or 12 months in either group. CVD risk, disease characteristics, wellbeing, and need satisfaction did not change, with the exception of diastolic blood pressure. Significant group by time interaction effects were found for functional ability (6- & 12-months), CVD risk (6-months) and PA (3-months). Autonomous motivation increased and controlled motivation decreased more in the experimental group compared to the control group at 3 months.ConclusionsDespite improving quality of motivation for exercise, no changes in cardiorespiratory fitness or other psychological and physiological health outcomes were found. This suggests more intensive support is needed when initiating an exercise programme to achieve health benefits in RA.     

姓名对个体心理与行为的实际影响：证据和理论

姓名不仅会影响他人的印象与评价, 还可能会影响个体实际的心理与行为。近几十年来, 心理学家在决策、成就、健康、人格四个领域开展了大量实证研究来考察姓氏或名字对个体的实际影响。姓名的多个维度(如独特性、性别倾向、含义效价、温暖-能力维度等)在不同程度上可以预测这些领域的心理与行为(包括职业决策/生活决策/经济决策、职业成就/学业成就、生理健康/心理健康/犯罪行为、人格特质/心理需要/面孔特征等)。但是, 现有研究证据比较混杂, 理论解释有待完善。未来研究应全面考虑姓名维度, 重点解决可重复性、因果关系、心理机制、跨文化普遍性等问题, 努力构建更系统、更包容的理论来解释姓名的心理与行为效应。     

前瞻性情绪作为社会风险的信息源假说：公共场景下风险决策的情绪及文化机制探讨

本研究从梳理决策的情绪理论入手, 在综合几种主要理论的基础上提出了“前瞻性情绪作为社会风险信息源”的假说。前瞻性情绪是在决策过程中产生的, 由于对决策选择的预期而感受到的, 进而影响决策行为的情绪。社会环境下的风险事件具有突发和稍纵即逝的特征, 如果一个公民对这类风险事件做出反应, 其结果的概率难于量化。在这种情况下, 前瞻性情绪能够为决策者快速提供有关信息, 并形成对决策预期结果严重性和可能性的综合表征, 从而成为公众场景下风险决策的有效线索。不同前瞻性情绪的组合在面对社会性风险事件时具有针对性的作用。近年来在文化比较中对于面子、荣誉和尊严文化的划分, 也为我们研究文化的情绪特征和行为效应提供了理论框架。本研究拟通过四项研究和多个实验探讨前瞻性情绪如何影响公众场景下人们的风险应对行为, 并对三种文化的情绪特征进行比较, 探索情绪性决策中个人因素、群体因素、及文化因素如何共同决定公共场景下风险决策(如亲社会行为或反社会行为)的发生与发展, 同时也期望为公共政策的制定及风险管理提供科学依据。