Actuarial Criminology: Meeting Current Challenges in Southern Africa

South African prisons were overcrowded by more than sixty-three percent in 2005. Overcrowding and poor prison conditions have enormous implications for rehabilitation efforts made by the South African Department of Correctional Services. The South African White Paper on Corrections (2005) commits the Department of Correctional Services to provide needs-based rehabilitation processes and a framework of continuous evaluation to measure the impact and success of such processes. It also acknowledges that monitoring the rates of recidivism is a critical indicator of the success, the effectiveness of needs-based rehabilitation, and improved service. A reliable system for monitoring recidivism will have to be developed and put in place. In this respect, actuarial criminology can make a vital contribution. This article poses a strategic alternative to the correctional industry in Southern Africa that can be used for the realization of correctional ideals, especially where retribution and overcrowding are still the main features of correctional institutions.     

Attentional capture by emotional faces in adolescence

Poor decision making during adolescence occurs most frequently when situations are emotionally charged. However, relatively few studies have measured the development of cognitive control in response to emotional stimuli in this population. This study used both affective (emotional faces) and non-affective (letter) stimuli in two different flanker tasks to assess the ability to ignore task-irrelevant but distracting information, in 25 adults and 25 adolescents. On the non-emotional (letter) flanker task, the presence of incongruent flanking letters increased the number of errors, and also slowed participants’ ability to identify a central letter. Adolescents committed more errors than adults, but there were no age-related differences for the reaction time interference effect in the letter condition. Post-hoc testing revealed that age-related differences on the task were driven by the younger adolescents (11-14 years); adults and older adolescents (15-17 years) were equally accurate in the letter condition. In contrast, on the emotional face flanker task, not only were adolescents less accurate than adults but they were also more distracted by task-irrelevant fearful faces as evidenced by greater reaction time interference effects. Our findings suggest that the ability to self-regulate in adolescents, as evidenced by the ability to suppress irrelevant information on a flanker task, is more difficult when stimuli are affective in nature. The ability to ignore irrelevant flankers appears to mature earlier for non-affective stimuli than for affective stimuli.     

Why do people disagree with a statement they do not understand? Relations between comprehension and evaluation of a simple assertion

This article presents the results of a quasi-experimental study that examined the relation between the metacomprehension (i.e., understand/do not understand) and evaluative (i.e., agree/disagree) response to a simple one-sentence statement to compare the relative timing in which these two responses are generated in the course of sentence processing. In the study, participants were asked to provide metacomprehension and evaluative judgements to simple one-sentence assertions, and their response times were measured. Two of the main findings are: first, the response time for the evaluative judgement is faster than the response time for the metacomprehension judgement and, second, the faster response time of the evaluative judgement relative to the metacomprehension judgement is more pronounced either when they are not sure about whether they understand a statement or when they feel they do not understand a statement. The findings are analysed in relation to a multiple constraint satisfaction model of sentence comprehension to generate a possible processing model of a simple one-sentence assertion underlying the generation of metacomprehension and evaluative responses.     

Ego-Identity Achievement and Perception of Risk in Intimacy in Survivors of Stranger and Acquaintance Rape

One hundred twenty-two women participated in a study of the relationship between acquaintance/stranger rape and the respective variables of ego-identity achievement (attainment of self-image during adolescence that integrates one's ideas of what one is and what one wants to be) and perception of risk in intimacy (perception of close interpersonal relationships as a risky proposition). Results showed that compared to women who had not been sexually assaulted, survivors of rape in general reported lower ego-identity achievement and greater perception of risk in intimacy. Focusing on acquaintance rape and stranger rape with age at the time of assault as possible moderator, it was found that lower ego-identity achievement was systematically related to acquaintance rape in women who had been raped during their adolescent years, but not in survivors of rape during adulthood. Perception of risk in intimacy was significantly higher among women who had been raped when adolescents compared to those who had been raped during adulthood, but only in relation to acquaintance rape.     

Self-Other Discrepancies in Waiting Time Decisions

Both anecdotal evidence and recently reported research suggest that people are risk-averse when faced with waiting time decisions. Four studies investigate whether there is a self-other discrepancy in how people make waiting time decisions themselves and how they predict others will make similar decisions. People are found to believe that others have valuations of time similar to their own. However, when faced with alternatives that involve risk in the duration of the wait, the results point to a self-other discrepancy, in that people report greater risk-aversion themselves than they think others would. Further, when faced with waiting time gains, people are themselves more risk-averse than they think others would be. Conversely, when faced with waiting time losses, people are themselves more risk-seeking than they think others would be. Overall, the results are consistent with the recently proposed risk-as-feelings hypothesis.     

Why Young Men Drive Dangerously: Implications for Injury Prevention

Why is risk consistently underestimated, and why do young men in particular take exceptionally high risks and think of themselves as invulnerable? Two explanatory paths are proposed. The first is that risk taking in young males has been shaped by evolutionary forces to provide a fitness value. The second pathway is through myth and the other narrative forms that affirm the ego's immortality and invulnerability. Because of its evolutionary base, risk taking is emotionally driven: Emotions are preverbal and irrational, which means that persuasive prevention cannot be more than weakly successful. Three prevention challenges emerge from this analysis: to determine what it is that young drivers fear, to attach affectively experienced fears to defined driving behaviors, and to devise injury-prevention programs that acknowledge that young males' risk taking is not "stupid," but driven by adaptive needs that are as significant to today's young adults as they were to our distant ancestors.     

风险偏好预测中的性别差异和框架效应

11 8名大学生被试在得益和损失两种任务框架下对自己、其他男性和女性的风险偏好进行了预测。结果发现 ,被试在损失框架下对各类对象风险偏好的预测均高于得益框架 ,且都高估了男性的风险偏好 ,低估了女性的风险偏好。在损失框架下 ,女性被试对各类对象的风险偏好预测高于男性的预测。研究认为 ,性别原型知识、任务框架和即时情绪共同影响被试的风险偏好预测。     

A study of emotion and reason in products and services

This study investigates the relationship between emotion, reason and perceived risk. Evidence is presented using an aggregative data set of 146 products and services which were randomly selected from the SIC (Standard Industrial Classification Codes) manual. It is demonstrated that emotional factors account for a significant and substantial portion of the variance in perceived risk even after the effect of rational factors (perceived differences between alternatives) has been taken into account. It is suggested that emotion be explicitly modelled in future conceptualisations of perceived risk. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications.     

Risk perception and risky choice: Situational, informational and dispositional effects

We investigated how situational (gain–loss), informational (opportunity–threat framing) and dispositional (achievement motive and avoidance motive) variables affected opportunity–threat perception and risky choice in managerial decision-making contexts. In Study 1, the risk preference of the participants showed a reflection effect due to situational differences (gain or loss) and a partial framing effect caused by presenting the same choice information in terms of either opportunities or threats. However, both effects were in the opposite direction of predictions from prospect theory. Gains and positive framing enhanced risk-seeking preference whereas losses and negative framing augmented risk-averse preference. Risk-seeking choices were mediated by opportunity perception whereas risk-averse choices were mediated by threat perception. In Study 2, the participants high in achievement motive perceived greater opportunities in a negative situation, and the participants high in avoidance motive perceived greater threats in a positive situation, suggesting that ambition (achievement motive) operates more significantly in the face of adversities whereas cautiousness (avoidance motive) functions more significantly in prosperity.     

Habituation in high‐risk infants: reliability and patterns of responding

We examined both the reliability of infant‐controlled habituation and patterns of responding in a group of high‐risk infants (mean age 16 mos). Good test–retest reliability was found for mean, total, and baseline looking time for one of the stimuli. Classification of infants' pattern of performance yielded two groups: linear (57%) and non‐linear (29%) responders; 14% of cases could not be classified because of cross‐session inconsistencies in performance. Linear responders had shorter total looking times, fewer trials to criterion, and showed more habituation than non‐linear responders, thus validating the linear/non‐linear distinction. Our findings indicate that the infant‐controlled habituation task can be used reliably with infants who are at high risk for developmental disorders. Indeed, we provide evidence that this task is not only reliable, but may also provide meaningful distinctions between infants within the high‐risk population. Discussion focuses on the role of attention in distinguishing between short (linear) and long (non‐linear) lookers. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.