Introduction What aptitudes,values, and behaviors for an already present future?

Abstract

Evolution, in particular demographic growth, and progress in the world of science and technology, has led to deep‐seated transformations on economic, social and political levels. How are we to teach the young to build the 21st century in the most suitable way? What are the values, what are the aptitudes and behaviors which will enable them to flourish as actors on the stage of a changing, complex and uncertain world?     

司法鉴定的眼外伤眼眶爆裂性骨折的临床决策

研究分析涉及司法鉴定的眼部钝力伤致眼眶爆裂性骨折临床决策的特殊性,依据医学原理,做出有益于伤者康复及纠纷解决的决策.选取眼眶爆裂性骨折49例(49眼).其中内侧壁骨折30例,下壁骨折19例.致伤原因:斗殴25例,交通肇事17例,运动伤5例,自己意外伤2例.30例2周内接受手术治疗,眼球运动不受限,眼位满意,功能位无复视,2例特定方位复视,3个月后消失.19例拒不接受手术治疗,3个月后眼球不同程度内陷,16例功能位复视,眼球转动疼痛.眼眶骨折早期手术治疗预后佳,后患少,对受伤者及肇事者均有益.     

个体采纳与群体采纳：决策过程中的两类建议采纳行为

决策者借助外界的建议通常能够获得更好的决策结果, 但是个体和群体对待建议的态度和行为却不尽相同。基于已有研究, 阐述了个体和群体在建议采纳过程中的特点并分析了造成二者差异的因素, 主要包括二者在面对决策任务和外界建议时的不同表现。此外, 根据群体动力理论, 未来研究可以从群体的动力源因素(凝聚力, 驱动力, 耗散力)来解释和预测群体的建议采纳及其与个体建议采纳的差异, 以期为不同决策情景下决策人员的合理安排和配置提供参考。     

前瞻性情绪作为社会风险的信息源假说：公共场景下风险决策的情绪及文化机制探讨

本研究从梳理决策的情绪理论入手, 在综合几种主要理论的基础上提出了“前瞻性情绪作为社会风险信息源”的假说。前瞻性情绪是在决策过程中产生的, 由于对决策选择的预期而感受到的, 进而影响决策行为的情绪。社会环境下的风险事件具有突发和稍纵即逝的特征, 如果一个公民对这类风险事件做出反应, 其结果的概率难于量化。在这种情况下, 前瞻性情绪能够为决策者快速提供有关信息, 并形成对决策预期结果严重性和可能性的综合表征, 从而成为公众场景下风险决策的有效线索。不同前瞻性情绪的组合在面对社会性风险事件时具有针对性的作用。近年来在文化比较中对于面子、荣誉和尊严文化的划分, 也为我们研究文化的情绪特征和行为效应提供了理论框架。本研究拟通过四项研究和多个实验探讨前瞻性情绪如何影响公众场景下人们的风险应对行为, 并对三种文化的情绪特征进行比较, 探索情绪性决策中个人因素、群体因素、及文化因素如何共同决定公共场景下风险决策(如亲社会行为或反社会行为)的发生与发展, 同时也期望为公共政策的制定及风险管理提供科学依据。     

决策理由、行动和后果对决策后悔的影响

探讨决策理由(合理与不合理)、行动(做与不做)和后果(严重与轻微)对决策后悔的影响,以2×2×2被试内设计,设置8个决策情境进行实验。结果:不合理决策的后悔体验比合理决策更高,严重的后果导致的后悔比轻微的后果更高,行动无主效应,但在后果轻微,理由不正当条件下,行动也就是“做”导致更多的后悔情绪。结论:决策理由的合理性与后果的严重性是影响决策后悔的重要因素; 只有理由不正当且后果轻微时,才存在“做效应”。     

基于努力决策任务在精神分裂症患者动机缺失评估中的应用

国外运用基于努力决策任务,与阴性症状量表和访谈相结合,对精神分裂症患者的阴性症状特别是动机缺失进行研究。本文从基于努力决策任务出发,重点介绍该任务范式及其在精神分裂症患者动机缺失评估中的最新研究,并从心理学、神经生物学和脑神经科学三个维度,阐述动机缺失的认知神经机制,论文结尾讨论了该任务范式在评估精神分裂症患者或其他患者动机缺失中可能遇到的挑战,以及未来的发展趋势。     

复杂决策规则下MIRT的分类准确性和分类一致性

介绍多维项目反应理论模型下分类准确性和分类一致性指标, 采用蒙特卡罗方法实现复杂决策规则下指标计算, 并从数学上证明分类准确性指标两类估计量在均匀先验和相同决策规则条件下依概率收敛于同一真值。研究结果表明：分类准确性指标可以比较准确地评价分类结果的准确性; 分类一致性指标可以较好地评价分类结果的重测一致性; 在一定条件下, 基于能力量尺的指标优于基于原始总分的指标; 纵使测验维度增加, 估计精度仍比较好; 随着测验长度和维度间相关增加, 分类准确性和分类一致性更高。指标可以用来评价标准参照测验或计算机分类测验的多种决策规则下分类信度和效度。     

Fast and frugal heuristics and naturalistic decision making: a review of their commonalities and differences

Both the fast and frugal heuristics (FFHs) and the naturalistic decision making (NDM) research programmes have identified important areas of inquiry previously neglected in the traditional study of human judgment and decision making, and have greatly contributed to the understanding of people's real-world decision making under environmental constraints. The two programmes share similar theoretical arguments regarding the rationality, optimality, and role of experience in decision making. Their commonalities have made them appealing to each other, and efforts have been made, by their leading academics, to promote synergy and integration. However, there has been little progress towards this during the last decade. This paper seeks to address this gap by seeking to better understand their commonalities and differences. To do so, literature relating to the two programmes is reviewed. The findings of the review indicated that an integration of the two could enhance FFHs' field research in applied settings, facilitate its investigation on boundary conditions of people's decision strategy selection, enable NDM to embrace emerging research opportunities in the age of big data, as well as permit each programme to enlighten the research topics and to validate the research findings of the other.     

词的具体性对词汇识别的影响

采用词汇判断法、命名法两种方法考察词的具体性特征对词汇识别的影响。结果表明：（１）两种任务中都存在着词的具体性效应;（２）词的具体性效应只表现在高频词中。作者给出了可能的解释并认为词汇识别中形、音、义的加工存在着交互作用。     

Developing Moral Decision-Making Competence: A Quasi-Experimental Intervention Study in the Swiss Armed Forces

Moral development has become an integral part in military training and the importance of moral judgment and behavior in military operations can hardly be overestimated. Many armed forces have integrated military ethics and moral decision-making interventions in their training programs. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these interventions. This study examined the effectiveness of a 1-week training program in moral decision making in the Swiss Armed Forces. The program was based on a strategy-based interactional moral dilemma approach. Results of this quasi-experimental intervention study showed significant improvements in content-related (moral and instrumental awareness, quality of moral information processing, development of compensatory actions) as well as process-related (situational analysis, development and evaluation of alternative solutions, justification of decision) aspects in moral decision making. Results of a follow-up test indicated positive long-term effects with regard to moral and instrumental awareness and process-related aspects. Findings are discussed, and consequences for leadership development programs and further research are explored.