“时间贫穷”对跨期决策和前瞻行为的影响及其认知机制

紧张的社会节奏使人们感觉时间正在变少,从而产生时间匮乏的心理感知和思维模式,这一现象概括为"时间贫穷"。"时间贫穷"会对个体认知判断、情绪和行为控制力产生重要影响。通过行为科学和认知神经科学相结合的研究方法,从行为反应-心理机制-神经机制三个层面研究时间贫穷对跨期决策和前瞻行为的影响。研究分为3个部分:(1)时间贫穷对个体认知判断、情绪和行为控制力的影响;(2)时间贫穷对跨期决策的影响;(3)组织中时间贫穷对前瞻行为的影响。通过系列研究,拟解决3个关键问题:(1)时间贫穷如何影响人们的认知判断,导致非理性决策行为?(2)时间贫穷影响认知判断和跨期决策的神经机制究竟是什么?(3)时间贫穷对管理决策带来哪些挑战?对这些问题的深入探讨,不仅对行为决策理论的发展有重要贡献;而且对组织如何进行有效的管理制度设计,避免个体和组织陷入"时间贫穷陷阱",同样有很强的实践意义。     

Perspective taking in referring to objects behind versus in front of an observer: Frames of reference,intraindividual consistency,and response latencies

Speakers of English and German typically adopt the reflection variant of the relative frame of reference (FoR) in order to describe how nonoriented objects that are located in front of them are related to one another. Little is known, however, about how they proceed in dorsal settings, with objects located in their back. In this article, we explore the turn hypothesis, which assumes a (mental) 180° turn of the observer to face the objects, converting the dorsal into a frontal situation, so that the preferred FoR variant for frontal settings can be applied. To elicit spatial references, we used photographs that showed an observer and two objects either in the observer's visual field (frontal condition) or in the observer's back (dorsal condition). The observer was looking either in the same direction as the referencing individual (aligned perspectives) or in the opposite direction (vis-à-vis perspective). Data from two experiments show that while participants do adopt the observer's perspective, their references in dorsal settings are incompatible with the turn hypothesis. Analyses of response latencies indicate additional cognitive costs for establishing a FoR for the very first item in the dorsal condition as compared to the frontal condition, but fast adaption for subsequent items, and high intraindividual consistency in FoR choice in both conditions. Maintaining the assumption that references in dorsal settings should be compatible with the variant of the relative FoR adopted in frontal settings, participants’ references can be explained by assuming a backward projection that gets by without a (mental) turn of the observer.     

Rethinking value elicitation for personal consequential decisions

The application of multiattribute decision analysis to personal consequential decision problems can be unhelpful particularly where the analysis fails to help the decision maker to discover new values, or where the decision maker is unable to visualize the experience that may result from choosing a particular course of action. We concur with James March that values are best discovered by the act of choosing and experimenting but acknowledge that the act of choice can lead to irreversible consequences. Both of these problems suggest that techniques which assist the decision maker to envisage the consequences of choice need to be developed and incorporated into the modelling process. We suggest some forms that these techniques might take. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Note on lexicographic‐order preservation and stochastic dominance

This note concerns two issues left unresolved in our study of lexicographic‐order preservation and stochastic dominance in settings where preferences are represented by utility vectors, ordered lexicographically, and judgements emerge as matrices that premultiply utility vectors in expected utility sums. First, a generalization of the ‘Conjecture Σ’, which implied transitivity of a stochastic dominance relation under non‐vacuous resolution‐level information, is proved. Second, this paper comments on using resolution‐level information in higher as well as in first degree stochastic dominance analysis. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two new cases of rank reversals when the AHP and some of its additive variants are used that do not occur with the multiplicative AHP

Many researchers have long observed some cases in which certain ranking irregularities can occur when the original analytic hierarchy process (AHP), or some of its variants, are used. This paper presents two new categories of ranking irregularities which defy common intuition. These ranking irregularities occur when one decomposes a decision problem into a set of smaller problems each defined on two alternatives and the same criteria as the original problem. These irregularities are possible when the original AHP, or some of its additive variants, are used. Computational experiments on random test problems and an examination of some real‐life case studies suggest that these ranking irregularities are dramatically likely to occur. This paper also proves that these ranking irregularities are not possible when a multiplicative variant of the AHP is used. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A real‐world MCDA application: evaluating software

A real‐world multi‐criteria decision aid (MCDA) application on software evaluation is presented in this paper. The decision process concerned a big Italian company faced with the management of a call for tenders for a very important software acquisition. The decision aiding process is extensively presented and discussed, mainly as far as its products are concerned, i.e. –the problem situation; –the problem formulation; –the evaluation model; –the final recommendation. The results of the experience are discussed using the comments of the client of the study. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic decision making: a comparison of approaches

This paper is concerned with a specific type of problem, namely dynamic decisions, for which most techniques fail to provide adequate solutions. Here, we present two of the most promising optimization techniques, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) and dynamic decision networks (DDN), while arguing which is the most suitable for this problem domain. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Future‐focussed thinking: combining scenario planning with decision analysis

This paper first describes current practice in decision analysis and argues that nothing in the technique's application is likely to challenge the strategic decision maker's current worldview of the course of future events that are modelled in the decision tree. By contrast, a scenario planning intervention in an organization has the potential to increase perceived threat and thus lead to a step change in strategic decision making. Strategic decisions are made against a backcloth of the operation of psychological processes that act, it is argued, to reduce the perceived level of environmental threat and result in strategic inertia. For this reason, it is recommended that scenario planning should be adopted as a standard procedure because of its ability to challenge individual and organizational worldviews. The use of scenario planning prior to conventional decision analysis is termed as ‘future‐focussed thinking’, and parallels are drawn between the current advocated approach and that of Keeney's value‐focussed thinking. Both serve to prompt the creation of enhanced options for subsequent evaluation by conventional decision analytic techniques. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.