Rationality and bounded information in repeated games, with application to the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma

Actions in a repeated game can in principle depend on all previous outcomes. Given this vast policy space, human players may often be forced to use heuristics that base actions on incomplete information, such as the outcomes of only the most recent trials. Here it is proven that such bounded rationality is often fully rational, in that the optimal policy based on some limited information about the game's history will be universally optimal (i.e., within the full policy space), provided that one's opponents are restricted to using this same information. It is then shown how this result allows explicit calculation of subgame-perfect equilibria (SPEs) for any repeated or stochastic game. The technique is applied to the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma for the case of 1-back memory. Two classes of SPEs are derived, which exhibit varying degrees of (individually rational) cooperation as a result of repeated interaction.     

全球化的新分析框架如何可能

全球化确实是一个客观存在,但是这种客观性与新自由主义的意识形态战略是分不开的。我们在经验意义上描述全球化的同时,更需要规范性地作出倡议和行动。全球化和全球化理论应受到理性的辩护,但是全球化需要变革,新自由主义的全球化理论需要批判。而对新自由主义的批判并不意味着需要回到国家主义,全球化的新分析框架应该建立在一种超越自由主义与国家主义二元对立的立场上。这种新分析框架强调对世界秩序的重建,强调对政治作出新的理解和开始一个新的政治时代。“承认的政治”应该是全球化的政治含义。     

航空决策模型及其影响因素分析

航空决策指在航空飞行驾驶过程中,飞行员面对特定情境做出最佳决策时的心理过程。情景评估和风险评估是航空决策模型中最重要的两个阶段。个体认知因素、疲劳和动机因素以及知识经验的限制会导致不良航空决策,组织压力和社会因素则通过混淆飞行员对飞行安全的看法间接影响航空决策。在未来的研究中,研究者应当重视构建更合理的航空决策模型,从辩证的角度全面看待知识经验与飞行安全的关系,加强对动机因素和环境因素的调查分析和实验性研究。     

On psychoanalytic supervision

The author provides both a theoretical context for, and clinical illustrations of, the way in which he thinks and works as a psychoanalytic supervisor. The analytic supervisory experience is conceived of as a form of 'guided dreaming'. In the supervisory relationship, the supervisor helps the analyst to dream (to do conscious and unconscious psychological work with) aspects of the analytic relationship that the analyst is unable to dream or is only partially able to dream. It is the task of the supervisory pair to 'dream up' the patient, that is, to create a 'fi ction' that is true to the supervisee's emotional experience with the analysand. To carry out this work, the supervisor must provide a frame that ensures the supervisee's freedom to think and dream and be alive to what is occurring in the analytic and the supervisory relationship, as well as in the interplay between the two. In one of the clinical illustrations presented, the author illustrates his conception of the importance of the feeling on the part of supervisor and supervisee that (at least occasionally) they have 'time to waste'. Such a state of mind may provide an opportunity for a type of freely associative thinking that enhances the range and depth of what can be learned from the supervisory experience. In another clinical example, the author describes his own experience in supervision with Harold Searles, which contributed to his conception of the supervisory process.     

Inverse association between dopaminergic neurotransmission and Iowa Gambling Task performance in pathological gamblers and healthy controls

Linnet, J., Møller, A., Peterson, E., Gjedde, A. & Doudet, D. (2011). Inverse association between dopaminergic neurotransmission and Iowa Gambling Task performance in pathological gamblers and healthy controls. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 52, 28–34. The dopamine system is believed to affect gambling behavior in pathological gambling. Particularly, dopamine release in the ventral striatum appears to affect decision‐making in the disorder. This study investigated dopamine release in the ventral striatum in relation to gambling performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) in 16 Pathological Gamblers (PG) and 14 Healthy Controls (HC). We used Positron Emission Tomography (PET) to measure the binding potential of [¹¹C] raclopride to dopamine D2/3 receptors during a baseline and gambling condition. We hypothesized that decreased raclopride binding potentials in the ventral striatum during gambling (indicating dopamine release) would be associated with higher IGT performance in Healthy Controls, but lower IGT performance in Pathological Gamblers. The results showed that Pathological Gamblers with dopamine release in the ventral striatum had significantly lower IGT performance than Healthy Controls. Furthermore, dopamine release was associated with significantly higher IGT performance in Healthy Controls and significantly lower IGT performance in Pathological Gamblers. The results suggest that dopamine release is involved both in adaptive and maladaptive decision‐making. These findings may contribute to a better understanding of dopaminergic dysfunctions in pathological gambling and substance related addictions.     

A quantum probability account of order effects in inference

Order of information plays a crucial role in the process of updating beliefs across time. In fact, the presence of order effects makes a classical or Bayesian approach to inference difficult. As a result, the existing models of inference, such as the belief-adjustment model, merely provide an ad hoc explanation for these effects. We postulate a quantum inference model for order effects based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory. The quantum inference model explains order effects by transforming a state vector with different sequences of operators for different orderings of information. We demonstrate this process by fitting the quantum model to data collected in a medical diagnostic task and a jury decision-making task. To further test the quantum inference model, a new jury decision-making experiment is developed. Using the results of this experiment, we compare the quantum inference model with two versions of the belief-adjustment model, the adding model and the averaging model. We show that both the quantum model and the adding model provide good fits to the data. To distinguish the quantum model from the adding model, we develop a new experiment involving extreme evidence. The results from this new experiment suggest that the adding model faces limitations when accounting for tasks involving extreme evidence, whereas the quantum inference model does not. Ultimately, we argue that the quantum model provides a more coherent account for order effects that was not possible before.     

Individual differences in need for cognition and decision making in the Iowa Gambling Task

Differences in decision making between individuals differing in Need for Cognition (NFC) are examined using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Previous work using normative one time decisions suggests that individual low in NFC process gains and losses differently than those high in NFC and are more susceptible to decision biases. The IGT is a popular laboratory task that involves making risky decisions from experience involving both gains and losses. In the first experiment, low NFC participants performed significantly worse than the high NFC participants. A second experiment designed to examine the nature of these differences provides evidence that low NFC participants place more importance on gains as opposed to losses when performing the IGT. Results are discussed in light of previous work suggesting that low NFC participants place more importance on losses in mixed outcome decisions.     

Analysis of proposed three-class classification decision rules in terms of the ideal observer decision rule

We analyze recently proposed decision rules for three-class classification from the point of view of ideal observer decision theory. We consider three-class decision rules proposed by Scurfield, by Chan et al., and by Mossman. Scurfield's decision rule is shown to be a special case of the three-class ideal observer decision rule in three different situations. Chan et al. start with an ideal observer model and specify its decision-consequence utility structure in a way that causes two of the decision lines used by the ideal observer to overlap and the third line to become undefined. Finally, we show that, for a particular and obvious choice of ideal-observer-related decision variables, the Mossman decision rule cannot be a special case of the ideal observer decision rule. Despite the considerable difficulties presented by the three-class classification task, the three-class ideal observer provides a useful framework for analyzing a variety of three-class decision strategies.     

乳腺癌保乳术与根治术的比较

为了比较分析保乳术和根治术的治疗成本和对乳腺癌患者预后的影响,从2002年1月~2005年6月湘雅医院乳腺科的乳腺癌资料库中,随机抽取64例I~II期乳腺癌分为保乳治疗组(A组,32例)和根治术组(B组,32例),并随访。结果显示,A、B两组全部药品费用分别平均为32474.11±16126.00元、35107.30±19352.71元,总费用平均为53959.64±22033.28元、53382.10±24042.87元。两组药品费和总费用均无统计学差异(P=0.556、0.921)。中位随访时间30个月,两组病例均无局部复发。A、B组远处转移率分别为6.25%、9.38%,两组无明显差异(P=0.641);Kaplan-Meier生存分析表明A、B组生存率分别为96.88%、93.75%,两组无显著性差异(P=0.4566)。保乳术患者对残乳的满意率为90.61%,认为保留了乳房后其对家庭和社会生活仍充满自信的分别占75%和87.5%;相反,根治术者仅占28.13%和40.63%;A、B两组有显著性差异(P=0.000、0.000)。由此得出结论,保乳术和根治/改良根治术两种治疗方法对I~II期乳腺癌患者的预后无差异,成本亦无明显区别,而保乳术明显提高了患者的家庭、社会生活质量。     

大学生择业心理归因结构研究

为了解大学生择业心理,根据归因理论编制了“大学生择业心理归因问卷”。该问卷包括原因源与可控性两个分量表。通过对596名大学生进行问卷调查,对该问卷的项目进行了筛选和修订,最后共保留了20个项目。研究结果表明:(1)分量表一可抽取负性情绪与择业目标两个因子,分量表二可抽取自身努力与社会支持两个因子;(2)问卷的信度与效度都达到了测量学的基本要求。