Inventor perseverance after being told to quit: the role of cognitive biases

We find that approximately one third (29%) of independent inventors continue to spend money and 51% continue to spend time on projects after receiving highly diagnostic advice to cease effort. Using survey data from actual inventors, this paper studies the role of overconfidence, optimism, and the sunk‐cost bias in these decisions. We find that inventors are more overconfident and optimistic than the general population. We also find that optimism and past expenditures increased perseverance after being told to quit, while overconfidence in judgment ability had no effect. After being told to quit, optimists spend 166% more than pessimists and those having already spent, for example, $10 000 spend another $10 000. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How formulating implementation plans and remembering past actions facilitate the enactment of effortful decisions

Building on prior research studying effortful decision making and enactment processes (Bagozzi, Dholakia, & Basuroy, 2003; BDB), we identify and provide an in‐depth understanding of two specific self‐regulatory strategies: (1) formulating an implementation plan, and (2) remembering past actions, that decision makers can use in facilitating enactment of effortful decisions. The results of three experiments, in which the decision maker's goal and self‐regulatory strategy were manipulated, showed that for goals that decision makers chose volitionally, the motivational effects of both these strategies lay in increasing levels of proximal implementation‐related variables (implementation intentions, plan completeness, plan enactment, and goal realization) significantly. In contrast, for goals that were assigned to participants, these strategies' motivational effects additionally extended to significantly increasing distal goal‐related variables (goal desire, goal intentions, perceived self‐efficacy, and implementation desires). The theoretical implications of our findings are discussed, and future research opportunities are explored. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environments That Make Us Smart: Ecological Rationality

ABSTRACT— Traditional views of rationality posit general-purpose decision mechanisms based on logic or optimization. The study of ecological rationality focuses on uncovering the "adaptive toolbox" of domain-specific simple heuristics that real, computationally bounded minds employ, and explaining how these heuristics produce accurate decisions by exploiting the structures of information in the environments in which they are applied. Knowing when and how people use particular heuristics can facilitate the shaping of environments to engender better decisions.     

替代指标在心血管疾病临床决策中的正确认识

在心血管疾病临床试验中,替代指标常用于评价干预措施的疗效。但替代指标在心血管疾病临床试验中非常复杂,因此,心血管医生在解读和评价心血管疾病临床试验的结果时,应正确认识替代指标的内涵、应用背景及其局限性,同时,还应客观地评价相关替代指标的证据强度,以寻找最好的医学证据指导其临床决策和实践。     

Continuity in adolescent career preparation and its effects on adjustment

Career preparation represents a major developmental task of adolescence, which has not received sufficient attention in empirical research on career development. Thus, this study was designed to examine the structure, continuity, and change in adolescent career preparation and its relationships with adjustment. The data were collected from a diverse sample of 389 adolescents on four occasions beginning in Grade 11 in high school and ending 6 months after high school graduation. Using Structural Equations modeling, a four-wave, developmental model of adolescent career preparation indicated by career decidedness, planning, and confidence was shown to fit the empirical data very well. Career preparation was characterized by continuity and a consistent pattern of positive concurrent and prospective associations with various indicators of adjustment. The results of the study provide empirical support for the theoretical propositions about the adaptive role of adolescent career preparation, particularly in terms of its contribution to psychological well-being and social integration.     

Emotional and personality-related aspects of persistent career decision-making difficulties

This study focused on examining the persistent aspects of career decision-making difficulties, using the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties scale (EPCD; [Saka, N., Gati, I., & Kelly, K.R. (in press). Emotional and personality-related aspects of career decision-making difficulties. Journal of Career Assessment]). The contribution of four personality measures—general indecisiveness, self-esteem, trait anxiety, and identity status—to the prediction of persistent career decision-making difficulties was tested on 747 students, using a longitudinal design. Results indicated that individuals with high EPCD scores at the beginning of the academic school year had less confidence in their choice and were less close to making a decision about the major into which they wanted to be admitted at the end of the year. The moderate correlations between the EPCD score and the four personality measures supported the validity of the EPCD. Implications for counseling and future research are discussed.     

An analogue study of the effects of Psychological Debriefing on eyewitness memory

Sixty-one participants from the community participated in a randomised controlled trial of group debriefing to assess the effect of this intervention upon memory for a stressful event. Participants were randomly allocated to one of three groups: debriefing; debriefing with an experimenter confederate present (who supplied three pieces of misinformation to the group regarding the stressful event); and a no-treatment control. All groups were shown a very stressful video and were again reviewed after 1 month. Members of the debriefing group where a confederate provided misinformation were more likely to recall this misinformation as fact than members of the other two groups. The debriefing group was also more accurate in their recall of peripheral content than the confederate group. Across all groups, participants were found to be more accurate at central rather than peripheral recall yet more confident for incorrect memories of the video than correct memories.     

肿瘤分子生物学行为与其影像表现关系的探讨

肿瘤基因表达与其影像表现有一定的相关性,为我们用无创的影像学方法显示肿瘤的生物学特征提供了可能。探寻肿瘤分子生物学特性与其影像表现的内在联系,以期对肿瘤浸润和转移做出正确的诊断,从而为临床选择治疗方案、判断疗效和评估预后等提供更多、更有价值的信息。     

泌尿外科微创技术与临床决策

微创技术在泌尿外科中的应用越来越广泛,对临床决策也产生了深远的影响。临床决策应以最佳证据作指导,充分评价不同方案的风险和利益,选择出最优方案应用于临床实践。微创技术的应用要以人为本,要贯穿诊断和治疗的全过程,要因地制宜,充分考虑应用的物质条件和基础。微创技术的应用也必须考虑经济因素,应选择适宜技术进行适度治疗。