“均”与“寡”阶段性变动下中国居民公平感的变迁

利用中国综合社会调查和中国社会状况综合调查重复截面数据,通过年龄-时期-队列模型对居民公平感的时代变化进行分析。研究发现公平感在年龄上呈“J”型趋势;从时期效应看, 2008年公平感较高, 2010～2013年在低谷徘徊,2015年以后又开始回升;从队列视角看,建国前出生队列公平感偏低,建国后初期的队列相对较高,“50”后有所下滑,从“60”后开始公平感持续走低,到“80”后跌入低谷,但“90”后又开始升高。从1949年前后“寡且不均”到建国初期阶段的“寡且均”,再到改革开放40年快速经济增长下“不寡但不均”的社会变迁过程影响了居民的公平感。     

Lifespan normative data (18–89 years) for Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices Set I

Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices (APM) Set I is a validated and brief test of fluid intelligence, ideal for use in busy clinical settings. However, there is a dearth of normative data allowing an accurate interpretation of APM scores. To address this, we present normative data from across the adult lifespan (18–89 years) for the APM Set I. Data are presented in five age cohorts (total N = 352), including two older adult cohorts (65–79 years and 80–89 years), which allows age-standardized assessment. We also present data from a validated measure of premorbid intellectual ability, which was absent from previous standardizations of longer forms of the APM. In line with previous findings, a striking age-related decline was noted, beginning relatively early in adulthood and most marked amongst lower-scoring individuals. Older adults did not demonstrate difficulty with specific test items or make an increased proportion of specific errors. Sex was not a significant predictor of performance. The data set is of particular use in the neuropsychological assessment of older adults, given the known susceptibility of fluid intelligence to both the effects of normal ageing and acquired brain injury in older age. The results are discussed in light of theories of neurological ageing.     

The asymptotic posterior normality of the latent trait in an IRT model

It has long been part of the item response theory (IRT) folklore that under the usual empirical Bayes unidimensional IRT modeling approach, the posterior distribution of examinee ability given test response is approximately normal for a long test. Under very general and nonrestrictive nonparametric assumptions, we make this claim rigorous for a broad class of latent models.This research was partially supported by Office of Naval Research Cognitive and Neural Sciences Grant N0014-J-90-1940, 442-1548, National Science Foundation Mathematics Grant NSF-DMS-91-01436, and the National Center for Supercomputing Applications. We wish to thank Kumar Joag-dev and Zhiliang Ying for enlightening suggestions concerning the proof of the basic result.The authors wish to thank Kumar Joag-Dev, Brian Junker, Bert Green, Paul Holland, Robert Mislevy, and especially Zhiliang Ying for their useful comments and discussions.     

Data Smoothing: Prediction of Human Behavior, Detection of Behavioral Patterns, and Monitoring Treatment Effectiveness in Single-Subject Behavioral Studies

Data-smoothing can be particularly useful in predicting human behavior, detecting behavioral patterns, and monitoring treatment effectiveness in highly variable single-subject behavioral experiments that cannot be determined by only visual inspection of their graphs. Using an example from the applied behavior analytic literature, the use of moving-average and exponential data-smoothing aided the detection of the unique behavioral patterns of a child with autism across different treatments. Furthermore, the utility of the data-smoothing procedures to monitor and control the effectiveness of an intervention is discussed. The ease of their calculations suggest use of data-smoothing by behavior analysts whenever the effects of particular interventions are questionable.     

A marginalization model for the multidimensional unfolding analysis of ranking data

A marginalization model for the multidimensional unfolding analysis of ranking data is presented. A subject samples one of a number of random points that are multivariate normally distributed. The subject perceives the distances from the point to all the stimulus points fixed in the same multidimensional space. The distances are error perturbed in this perception process. He/she produces a ranking dependent on these error-perturbed distances. The marginal probability of a ranking is obtained according to this ranking model and by integrating out the subject (ideal point) parameters, assuming the above distribution. One advantage of the model is that the individual differences are captured using the posterior probabilities of subject points. Three sets of ranking data are analyzed by the model.     

Guidelines for training in the ethical conduct of scientific research

Historically, scientists in training have learned the rules of ethical conduct by the example of their advisors and other senior scientists and by practice. This paper is intended to serve as a guide for the beginning scientist to some fundamental principles of scientific research ethics. The paper focuses less on issues of outright dishonesty or fraud, and more on the positive aspects of ethical scientific behavior; in other words, what a scientist should do to maintain a high level of ethical conduct in research. There are a number of fairly specific rules, guidelines, or commonly accepted operating principles that have evolved for the ethical conduct of science. In order to discuss this code of ethics, this paper is divided into sections dealing with specific areas of scientific ethics. These areas are: data collection and storage, ownership of data, confidentiality, communication, authorship, collaboration, the peer review system, and rules of dealing with ethical complaints. Illustrative case histories are presented to provide examples of the type of ethical dispute or problem being discussed. If scientific trainees learn the accepted rules of behavior that govern the conduct of science, ethical problems that arise out of ignorance, misunderstanding, or poor communication can be avoided.     

Human Signal-detection Performance: Effects Of Signal Presentation Probabilities And Reinforcer Distributions

University students participated in one of four standard two-choice signal-detection experiments in which signal presentation probability was varied and the reinforcement distribution was held constant and equal. In Experiments 1, 3 and 4, subjects' performance showed a systematic response bias for reporting the stimulus presented least often. Experiments 1 and 4 showed that this effect was reliable with extended training and monetary, rather than point, reinforcement. In Experiment 2, all correct responses were signaled in some way, and this produced the opposite relationship between signal presentation probability and response bias. Experiments 1 and 3 found that explicitly deducting money (intended as punishment) for equal numbers of incorrect responses on each alternative, or varying the obtained overall rate of reinforcement, produced no clear change in response bias. The bias, shown by humans, for reporting the stimulus presented least often remains a challenge for theories of stimulus detection.     

Rasch's multiplicative poisson model with covariates

As a multivariate model of the number of events, Rasch's multiplicative Poisson model is extended such that the parameters for individuals in the prior gamma distribution have continuous covariates. The parameters for individuals are integrated out and the hyperparameters in the prior distribution are estimated by a numerical method separately from difficulty parameters that are treated as fixed parameters or random variables. In addition, a method is presented for estimating parameters in Rasch's model with missing values. The author is now affiliated with the Otara University of Commerce. The author is grateful to Yoshio Takane, Haruo Yanai, Eiji Muraki, the editor and referees for their careful readings and helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this paper. Part of this work was presented at the third European Congress of Psychology at Tampere, Finland in 1993.     

Tests of symmetry in three-way contingency tables

Three-dimensional contingency tables are analyzed, with one variable (e.g., sex) as a factor, and with a natural relation between the other variables (e.g. left and right eye vision). Models of special interest, like symmetry and proportional symmetry between the related variables, and homogeneity across the factor levels, are investigated. Maximum likelihood estimators of parameters and partitions of chi-square goodness-of-fit statistics are explicitly presented; the independence of certain models is noted, and an example is discussed.     

Seat belt usage: A potential target for applied behavior analysis

Results of 1,579 observations of cars entering or exiting campus parking lots showed direct relationships between seat belt wearing and the intrusiveness of the engineering device designed to induce belt usage, and between device intrusiveness and system defeat. For example, all drivers with working interlocks or unlimited buzzer reminders were wearing a seat belt; but 62% of the systems with interlocks or unlimited buzzers had been defeated, and only 15.9% of the drivers in these cars were wearing a seat belt. The normative data indicated marked ineffectiveness of the negative reinforcement contingencies implied by current seat belt inducement systems; but suggested that unlimited buzzer systems would be the optimal system currently available if contingencies were developed to discourage the disconnection and circumvention of such systems. Positive reinforcement strategies are discussed that would be quite feasible for large-scale promotion of seat belt usage.