The structure of paradigm change

I propose a concise picture of the core structure of paradigm change. It consists of the three basic steps which, I suggest, are common to all forms of paradigm change, individual as well as collective and in every conceptual domain. These steps are formularized so as to stimulate more precise theorizing about, and comparisons between various alleged forms of paradigm change. I explain the idea and give evidence for it using examples from the fields of cognitive psychology, moral psychology, and the history of science.     

EFFECTS OF A VARIABLE-RATIO REINFORCEMENT SCHEDULE WITH CHANGING CRITERIA ON EXERCISE IN OBESE AND NONOBESE BOYS

The effects of a variable-ratio schedule of reinforcement on pedaling a stationary exercise bicycle were examined. Three obese and three nonobese 11-year-old boys were individually tested five times weekly for approximately 12 weeks. A changing-criterion design was used in which each successive criterion was increased over mean performance rate in the previous phase by approximately 15%. The contingencies of the successive criteria resulted in systematic increases in rate of exercise for all children. Final variable-ratio rates were higher than those under fixed ratios found in previous research, with rates for 2 of the 3 obese boys approximating those of the nonobese.     

Some properties of two measures of multivariate association

Two kinds of measures of multivariate association, based on Wilks' and the Bartlett-Nanda-Pillai trace criterionV, respectively, are compared in terms of properties of the univariateR ² which they generalize. A unified set of derivations of the properties is provided which are self-contained and not restricted to decompositions in canonical variates. One conclusion is that asymmetric index based on allows generalization of the multiplicative decomposition ofR ² in terms of squared partial correlations, but not the additive decomposition in terms of squared semipartial correlations, while the reverse is true for anasymmetric index based onV.We are indebted to Jos M. F. ten Berge for some fruitful discussions.     

Application of model-selection criteria to some problems in multivariate analysis

A review of model-selection criteria is presented, with a view toward showing their similarities. It is suggested that some problems treated by sequences of hypothesis tests may be more expeditiously treated by the application of model-selection criteria. Consideration is given to application of model-selection criteria to some problems of multivariate analysis, especially the clustering of variables, factor analysis and, more generally, describing a complex of variables.     

Pseudo maximum likelihood estimation and a test for misspecification in mean and covariance structure models

Using the theory of pseudo maximum likelihood estimation the asymptotic covariance matrix of maximum likelihood estimates for mean and covariance structure models is given for the case where the variables are not multivariate normal. This asymptotic covariance matrix is consistently estimated without the computation of the empirical fourth order moment matrix. Using quasi-maximum likelihood theory a Hausman misspecification test is developed. This test is sensitive to misspecification caused by errors that are correlated with the independent variables. This misspecification cannot be detected by the test statistics currently used in covariance structure analysis.For helpful comments on a previous draft of the paper we are indebted to Kenneth A. Bollen, Ulrich L. Küsters, Michael E. Sobel and the anonymous reviewers of Psychometrika. For partial research support, the first author wishes to thank the Department of Sociology at the University of Arizona, where he was a visiting professor during the fall semester 1987.     

Expertise and gambling: Using Type 2 signal detection theory to investigate differences between regular gamblers and nongamblers

This paper presents an experimental investigation into how individuals make decisions under uncertainty when faced with different payout structures in the context of gambling. Type 2 signal detection theory was utilized to compare sensitivity to bias manipulations between regular nonproblem gamblers and nongamblers in a novel probability-based gambling task. The results indicated that both regular gamblers and nongamblers responded to the changes of rewards for correct responses (Experiment 1) and penalties for errors (Experiment 2) in setting their gambling criteria, but that regular gamblers were more sensitive to these manipulations of bias. Regular gamblers also set gambling criteria that were more optimal. The results are discussed in terms of an expertise-transference hypothesis.     

SCIENTISM, INTERPRETATION, AND CRITICISM

Abstract. What is the relationship between natural science, social science, and religion? The dominant paradigm in contemporary social science is scientism, the attempt to apply the methods of natural science to the study of society. However, scientism is problematic: it rests on a conception of natural science that cannot be sustained. Natural scientific understanding emerges from an instrumental and objectifying relation to the world; it is oriented toward control and manipulation of the physical world. Social-scientific understanding, by contrast, must begin with a practical and meaningful relation to the world: it is oriented toward the mediation of values and objective possibilities in the social world. Social science is therefore a form of practical reason based on objective claims. But while social-scientific understanding starts with interpretation, its possibilities by no means end there. In particular, by developing abstract and objectified models of society as a system, social science opens existing social organization to critical reflection. Religion, by contrast, is a form of speculative reason about ultimate values, based on subjective claims of religious experience. Social science nevertheless shares with religion an orientation toward values and concern with the “good life.”     

BEHAVIORAL TREATMENT OF CAFFEINISM: REDUCING EXCESSIVE COFFEE DRINKING

Excessive coffee drinking can have deleterious effects because of the large amounts of caffeine that are ingested. Caffeine is thought to be addicting, and prolonged and excessive use can lead to caffeinism, a condition that has serious behavioral and physiological side effects. The present study developed and evaluated a treatment program to reduce excessive daily coffee drinking to moderate and presumably safer levels. Three habitual coffee drinkers received individualized changing criterion programs that systematically and gradually reduced their daily caffeine intake. The coffee drinkers were required to self-monitor and plot their daily intake of caffeine. They received monetary prizes for not exceeding the treatment phase criteria and forfeited a portion of their pretreatment deposit when they did. Their coffee drinking decreased from almost nine cups per day (over 1100 mg of caffeine) during baseline to less than three cups per day (less than 343 mg) at the end of treatment or a reduction of 69%. The treatment effect was maintained during a 10-month follow-up, averaging a 67% reduction from baseline. The program appears to be a reasonable method of reducing and then maintaining daily caffeine intake at less harmful levels.     

Comparison of yes-no and latency measures of auditory intensity discrimination.

Rats discriminated auditory intensity differences of sinusoids at 3.0 kilohertz in a go/no-go signal detection procedure. Responses to the signal (hits) were reinforced with electrical brain stimulation, and misses produced a brief timeout. On intermixed noise trials, withholding of responses (correct rejections) was reinforced, and false alarms produced the time-out. In two test conditions, the signal was either the louder (100 decibels) or softer (90, 93, 96, or 99 decibels) of the pair of intensities presented within a set of trials. Each animal was first trained with signal value louder or softer, and reversed for the second condition so that the former noise value served as signal. Hits showed shorter latencies than false alarms, regardless of the relative intensity of signal and noise, and the magnitude of differentiation was proportional to signal-noise separation. Both hits and false alarms showed longer latencies as the discrimination became more difficult. Isosensitivity contours derived from the latencies showed close similarity across conditions; in comparison, the yes-no measure of detectability, d', showed greater variability. The similarity of latency differentiation across louder and softer signal conditions supports a detection model in which the observer's judgment is controlled by the distance of sensory effect from criterion on each trial, as opposed to the loudness of the tones per se.     

A lower bound to the probability of choosing the optimal passing score for a mastery test when there is an external criterion

Recently there has been interest in the problem of determining an optimal passing score for a mastery test when the purpose of the test is to predict success or failure on an external criterion. For the case of constant losses for the two error types, a method of determining an optimal passing score is readily derived using standard techniques. The purpose of this note is to describe a lower bound to the probability of identifying an optimal passing score based on a random sample ofN examinees.The work upon which this publication is based was performed pursuant to a grant [contract] with the National Institute of Education, Department of Health, Education and Welfare. Points of view or opinions stated do not necessarily represent official NIE position or policy.