项目反应理论中潜在心理特质“填补”的参数估计方法及其演变

在心理与教育测量中, 项目反应理论(Item Response Theory, IRT)模型的参数估计方法是理论研究与实践应用的基本工具。最近, 由于IRT模型的不断扩展与EM (expectation-maximization)算法自身的固有问题, 参数估计方法的改进与发展显得尤为重要。这里介绍了IRT模型中边际极大似然估计的发展, 提出了它的阶段性特征, 即联合极大似然估计阶段、确定性潜在心理特质“填补”阶段、随机潜在心理特质“填补”阶段, 重点阐述了它的潜在心理特质“填补” (data augmentation)思想。EM算法与Metropolis-Hastings Robbins-Monro (MH-RM)算法作为不同的潜在心理特质“填补”方法, 都是边际极大似然估计的思想跨越。目前, 潜在心理特质“填补”的参数估计方法仍在不断发展与完善。     

不同干扰刺激对成人数量估计的影响

研究采用自行设计的图形材料,考察了不同干扰刺激(纯靶刺激;干扰刺激与靶刺激数量相同;干扰刺激是靶刺激数量的2倍)对成人完成数量估计任务的影响.30名硕士生参加了本实验.行为数据和口头报告资料分析显示:1)反应时随数量估计任务难度的增加而不断增长;2)干扰刺激越多,任务越复杂,成人估计的误差率越高,准确性越低;3)成人存在多重数字表征形式,完成数量估计任务时主要采用线性表征,但随着干扰刺激物的增加,运用对数表征的趋势愈加明显.     

Implications of accuracy, sensitivity, and variability of body size estimations to disordered eating

The current study was conducted to investigate the relationships between body size estimations and disordered eating symptomatology. The method of constant stimuli was used to derive three measures of self-perceived body size in 93 women: (1) accuracy of body size estimations (body image distortion); (2) sensitivity in discriminating body size within blocks of trials (body image sensitivity); and (3) variability in making body size estimations between blocks of trials (body image variability). Participants also completed measures of disordered eating. Although body image distortion correlated with dietary restraint and eating concern, body image variability accounted for additional variance in these variables, as well as variance in binge eating. The relationships involving body image variability were found to be mediated by body dissatisfaction and internalization of the thin ideal. Together, these results are consistent with the proposition that body image variability is a significant factor in disordered eating.     

Sex differences in number line estimation: The role of numerical estimation

Sex differences in mathematical performance have frequently been examined over the last decades indicating an advantage for males especially when numerical problems cannot be solved by (classroom‐)learnt strategies and/or estimation. Even in basic numerical tasks such as number line estimation, males were found to outperform females – with sex differences argued to emerge from different solution strategies applied by males and females. We evaluated the latter using two versions of the number line estimation task: a bounded and an unbounded task version. Assuming that women tend more strongly to apply known procedures, we expected them to be at a particular disadvantage in the unbounded number line estimation task, which is less prone to be solved by specific strategies such as proportion judgement but requires numerical estimation. Results confirmed more pronounced sex differences for unbounded number line estimation with males performing significantly more accurately in this task version. This further adds to recent evidence suggesting that estimation performance in the bounded task version may reflect solution strategies rather than numerical estimation. Additionally, it indicates that sex differences regarding the spatial representation of number magnitude may not be universal, but associated with spatial–numerical estimations in particular.     

Explaining High Conjunction Fallacy Rates: The Probability Theory Plus Noise Account

The conjunction fallacy occurs when people judge the conjunctive probability P(A ∧ B) to be greater than a constituent probability P(A), contrary to the norms of probability theory. This fallacy is a reliable, consistent and systematic part of people's probability judgements, attested in many studies over at least 40 years. For some events, these fallacies occur very frequently in people's judgements (at rates of 80% or more), while for other events, the fallacies are very rare (occurring at rates of 10% or less). This wide range of fallacy rates presents a challenge for current theories of the conjunction fallacy. We show how this wide range of observed fallacy rates can be explained by a simple model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise in the reasoning process. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Longitudinal associations between athletes' controlled motivation,ill-being,and perceptions of controlling coach behaviors: A Bayesian latent growth curve approach

Although many scholars have argued that leadership is a dynamic process jointly produced by leaders and followers, leadership in sports is most often researched as a unidirectional process from coaches to athletes. Within self-determination theory (SDT), individual characteristics are suggested to influence how people perceive external events such as coaches' behaviors. In the present study, we examined this jointly produced leadership process by investigating longitudinal associations between athletes' controlled motivation, ill-being, and perceptions of coaches' controlling behaviors at the between- and within-person levels. The participants were 247 young elite skiers enrolled at Swedish sport high schools who responded to self-report questionnaires at three time points over the course of an athletic season. At the between-person level, increases in perceptions of coaches' controlling behaviors over the season positively predicted controlled motivation at the end of the season, and controlled motivation at the beginning of the season positively predicted ill-being at the end of the season. At the within-person level, athletes' controlled motivation positively predicted perceptions of coaches' controlling behaviors. The results at the between-person level support the unidirectional perspective and the tenets of SDT. The results at the within-person level suggest that individual characteristics such as motivation can influence how athletes perceive external events, which has been proposed theoretically but seldom examined empirically. Three plausible explanations for this reversed association are presented in the discussion.     

音乐表演训练对神经可塑性的影响:元分析研究

音乐表演是人类最复杂和精细的技能之一。通过激活似然性评估元分析,对音乐表演训练所诱发的神经可塑性进行探究。结果发现,音乐表演者与非音乐家在左侧小脑、双侧中央前回、双侧颞上回、左侧额下回、双侧顶下小叶以及右侧脑岛等脑区存在差异。这些脑区与听觉、运动以及多通道信息整合等加工有关。未来研究应从不同音乐表演训练诱发的神经适应性出发,进一步探究音乐表演训练与大脑可塑性之间的关联。     

Interval estimation of gamma for an<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis>×<Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis> table

When the underlying responses are on an ordinal scale, gamma is one of the most frequently used indices to measure the strength of association between two ordered variables. However, except for a brief mention on the use of the traditional interval estimator based on Wald's statistic, discussion of interval estimation of the gamma is limited. Because it is well known that an interval estimator using Wald's statistic is generally not likely to perform well especially when the sample size is small, the goal of this paper is to find ways to improve the finite-sample performance of this estimator. This paper develops five asymptotic interval estimators of the gamma by employing various methods that are commonly used to improve the normal approximation of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Using Monte Carlo simulation, this paper notes that the coverage probability of the interval estimator using Wald's statistic can be much less than the desired confidence level, especially when the underlying gamma is large. Further, except for the extreme case, in which the underlying gamma is large and the sample size is small, the interval estimator using a logarithmic transformation together with a monotonic function proposed here not only performs well with respect to the coverage probability, but is also more efficient than all the other estimators considered here. Finally, this paper notes that applying an ad hoc adjustment procedure—whenever any observed frequency equals 0, we add 0.5 to all cells in calculation of the cell proportions—can substantially improve the traditional interval estimator. This paper includes two examples to illustrate the practical use of interval estimators considered here.The authors wish to thank the Associate Editor and the two referees for many valuable comments and suggestions to improve the contents and clarity of this paper. The authors also want to thank Dr. C. D. Lin for his graphic assistance.     

The order-restricted association model: Two estimation algorithms and issues in testing

This paper presents a row-column (RC) association model in which the estimated row and column scores are forced to be in agreement with an a priori specified ordering. Two efficient algorithms for finding the order-restricted maximum likelihood (ML) estimates are proposed and their reliability under different degrees of association is investigated by a simulation study. We propose testing order-restricted RC models using a parametric bootstrap procedure, which turns out to yield reliablep values, except for situations in which the association between the two variables is very weak. The use of order-restricted RC models is illustrated by means of an empirical example. Francisca Galindo performed this research as a part of her PhD. dissertation project at Tilburg University.     

No Matrix Term-Equivalent to Wroński's 3-element Matrix is Finitely Based

Motivated by a question of W. Rautenberg, we prove that any matrix that is term-equivalent to the well-known nonfinitely based matrix of A. Wroski is itself also nonfinitely based.