Intuitive prediction: ecological validity versus representativeness

Insufficiently regressive intuitive predictions have been attributed to mistaken reliance on the representativeness heuristic. In contrast, we suggest that intuitive predictions stem from a conceptualization of ‘goodness of prediction’ that differs from the accepted statistical definition in terms of error minimization, namely, ecological validity—that is, representation of the substantive characteristics of the predicted variable Y and its distribution as well as of the relationship between Y and the predictor X—rather than minimization of prediction errors. Simultaneous satisfaction of the above representation requirements is achieved by multivalued prediction: The prediction of different Y′ values for the same X value, resulting in conditional distributions Y′|X for at least some X values. Empirical results supporting this hypothesis are presented and discussed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the conjunction fallacy within a category learning framework

The literature presents two major theories on the cause of the conjunction fallacy. The first attributes the conjunction fallacy to the representativeness heuristic. The second suggests that the conjunction fallacy is caused by people combining p(A) and p(B) into p(A&B) in an inappropriate manner. These two theories were contrasted in two category‐learning experiments. As predicted by the latter theory, data showed that participants that could assess p(A&B) directly made fewer conjunction fallacies than participants who had to compute p(A) and p(B) separately and then combine them into p(A&B). Least conjunction fallacies were observed in the cases where the representativeness heuristic was applicable. Overall, data showed that an inability to appropriately combine probabilities is one of the key cognitive mechanisms behind the conjunction fallacy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

原型表征对创造性问题解决过程中的启发效应的影响

以32个科学发明创造问题为实验材料, 采用“学习8个原型-测试8个问题”的两阶段实验范式, 通过操纵原型学习条件(是否有标识或插图)考察了原型的知识表征对创造性问题解决的启发效应的影响, 结果发现：1)标识对原型的激活率在无插图水平上有显著影响, 有标识比无标识原型的激活率更高, 在有插图水平上无显著影响; 插图对原型的激活率有显著影响, 有插图比无插图原型的激活率更高。2)标识和插图都对问题解决的正确率有显著影响, 有标识比无标识正确率更高, 有插图比无插图正确率更高。3)标识和插图在原型激活率和问题解决正确率上都存在显著交互作用, 反映出原型启发的思维过程是复杂的, 表现出灵活性、经济性的特点。     

对整合模型和占优启发式模型的检验：基于信息加工过程的眼动研究证据

基于信息加工过程视角, 本研究采用眼动技术检验风险决策整合模型和占优启发式模型。结果表明, 自主决策任务条件下决策过程反应时及信息搜索模式均不同于期望价值(EV)迫选任务条件下的决策过程反应时及信息搜索模式; 自主决策任务条件下决策过程反应时并未随着选项间整体值(CPT值)差值的变大而变快, 且基于特征(attribute-based)的信息搜索多于基于选项(option-based)的信息搜索, 不符合整合模型预期。此外, 决策者亦未按照占优启发式模型所假定的决策步骤进行决策。基于信息加工过程的检验结果既不利于以累积预期理论为代表的整合模型, 亦不利于占优启发式模型。文章建议从决策过程视角检验已有决策模型及建立新的启发式决策过程模型(process model)。     

阶段转移事件对公平稳定性的影响

摘要：目前,组织公平的研究多集中于组织公平与组织结果变量之间关系,较少关注组织公平的稳定性。本文采取4（公平模式：公平控制/初始公平/不公平控制/初始不公平）×2（实验阶段：阶段1/阶段2）混合实验设计,探讨阶段转移事件对被试公平反应稳定性的影响。研究结果显示,公平对待导致积极的公平反应,不公平对待导致消极的公平反应;公平程序向不公平程序的转移导致对实验者信任和组织公民行为意向的评价显著降低;而不公平程序向公平程序的转移并没有导致对实验者信任和组织公民行为意向评价的显著增加,从而说明了公平反应的有限稳定性。     

关联规则方法在心理测量中的应用

探讨了当相关系数对变量之间相关程度不易进行度量或者无法度量的情况下,是否可以采用关联规则方法来考察变量之间的相互关系。从理论上分析了关联规则方法在心理测量中应用的可能性,并运用Apriori算法挖掘频繁项集,对来华留学生跨文化适应性数据进行了分析,将关联规则方法分析结果与Pearson相关、Spearman相关结果进行比较,发现当使用关联规则方法进行相互关系分析时,能够更加简易、有效地获得变量间的相关规则。研究结果表明关联规则方法可以获得变量各个水平具体的支持度和置信度,推导出多变量之间的相关规则,并且对于处理非线性的多变量以及多分类变量的相关是非常有用的方法。     

画概念图对高中二年级学生认知结构形成的影响

运用联想测试方法探索高二学生学习新陈代谢一章后的认知结构。运用相关系数值绘制出了学生的认知结构图。结果显示,运用概念图策略进行教学的实验班学生更容易形成认知结构。实验班学生所形成的认知结构更良好、更合理。     

消费心理预期与股票涨跌关系的初步研究

在间隔两个月重复测试我国城市居民消费心理预期水准的基础上,采用交叉滞后相关法(CLPC)研究了消费心理预期水准与股票涨跌幅之间的关系．发现：消费心理预期是导致股票涨跌的主要因素．从而证明消费心理预期是影响消费需求的重要因素。     

The meaning of ‘reconstruction’ within the lived experience of mastectomy for breast cancer

This paper represents a heuristic study of the meaning and essence of ‘reconstruction’ within the lived experience of mastectomy for breast cancer. Open‐ended interviews were conducted with a sample of eight women aged 40 to 58 years, who underwent mastectomy for breast cancer. Four participants had immediate breast reconstruction; two participants had delayed breast reconstruction, and two participants decided not to have the procedure. The study demonstrates that themes of loss/change/reconstruction are inextricably linked to the experience of mastectomy. Loss of a breast was likened to bereavement and in some women caused a loss of part of their identity. The closeness of death altered the awareness the women had of their time left on earth. This awareness brought about change/reconstruction in the majority of the women, in their lives and in their relationships with others. Prior to breast reconstruction there is a place for exploring with women the meaning of ‘normal’ and ‘whole’. Implications for counselling are discussed.     

概化理论研究及应用前景

1972年,Cronbach和他的同事们提出概化理论之后,概化理论在行为与心理测量领域得到了广泛的应用,较之经典测量理论,它的优势逐渐地显露：(1)测量的多种误差来源可以在同一个分析中分别估计;(2)可以指导决策者选择最优测量方案;(3)提供可靠性系数：概化系数(G系数)和依存性指标(φ系数)用于不同的决策任务;(4)排除了严格平行测验的假设。概化理论以它的精确性和可藏性受到了信度测量领域研究者们的青睐,本文旨在对概化理论的基本框架、产生、发展及应用前景进行详细论述。