‘I feel better when…’: An analysis of the memory-experience gap for peoples’ estimates of the relationship between health behaviours and experiences

Objective: People often overestimate how strongly behaviours and experiences are related. This memory-experience gap might have important implications for health care settings, which often require people to estimate associations, such as “my mood is better when I exercise”. This study examines how subjective correlation estimates between health behaviours and experiences relate to calculated correlations from online reports and whether subjective estimates are associated with engagement in actual health behaviour.

Design: Seven-month online study on physical activity, sleep, affect and stress, with 61 online assessments.

Main Outcome Measures: University students (N = 168) retrospectively estimated correlations between physical activity, sleep, positive affect and stress over the seven-month study period.

Results: Correlations between experiences and behaviours (online data) were small (r = ?.12–.14), estimated correlations moderate (r = ?.35–.24). Correspondence between calculated and estimated correlations was low. Importantly, estimated correlations of physical activity with stress, positive affect and sleep were associated with actual engagement in physical activity.

Conclusion: Estimation accuracy of relations between health behaviours and experiences is low. However, association estimates could be an important predictor of actual health behaviours. This study identifies and quantifies estimation inaccuracies in health behaviours and points towards potential systematic biases in health settings, which might seriously impair intervention efficacy.     

Emergent stimulus relations depend on stimulus correlation and not on reinforcement contingencies

We aimed to investigate whether novel stimulus relations would emerge from stimulus correlations when those relations explicitly conflicted with reinforced relations. In a symbolic matching-to-sample task using kanji characters as stimuli, we arranged class-specific incorrect comparison stimuli in each of three classes. After presenting either Ax or Cx stimuli as samples, choices of Bx were reinforced and choices of Gx or Hx were not. Tests for symmetry, and combined symmetry and transitivity, showed the emergence of three 3-member (AxBxCx) stimulus classes in 5 of 5 human participants. Subsequent tests for all possible emergent relations between Ax, Bx, Cx and the class-specific incorrect comparisons Gx and Hx showed that these relations emerged for 4 of 5 the participants after extended overtraining of the baseline relations. These emergent relations must have been based on stimulus-stimulus correlations, and were not properties of the trained discriminated operants, because they required control by relations explicitly extinguished during training. This result supports theoretical accounts of emergent relations that emphasize stimulus correlation over operant contingencies.     

An eye‐tracking study on information processing in risky decisions: Evidence for compensatory strategies based on automatic processes

Many everyday decisions have to be made under risk and can be interpreted as choices between gambles with different outcomes that are realized with specific probabilities. The underlying cognitive processes were investigated by testing six sets of hypotheses concerning choices, decision times, and information search derived from cumulative prospect theory, decision field theory, priority heuristic and parallel constraint satisfaction models. Our participants completed 40 decision tasks of two gambles with two non‐negative outcomes each. Information search was recorded using eye‐tracking technology. Results for choices, decision time, the amount of information searched for, fixation durations, the direction of the information search, and the distribution of fixations conflict with the prediction of the non‐compensatory priority heuristic and indicate that individuals use compensatory strategies. Choice proportions are well in line with the predictions of cumulative prospect theory. Process measures indicate that individuals thereby do not rely on deliberate calculations of weighted sums. Information integration processes seem to be better explained by models that partially rely on automatic processes such as decision field theory or parallel constraint satisfaction models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population models and simulation methods: The case of the Spearman rank correlation

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of a population model in guiding the design and interpretation of simulation studies used to investigate the Spearman rank correlation. The Spearman rank correlation has been known for over a hundred years to applied researchers and methodologists alike and is one of the most widely used non‐parametric statistics. Still, certain misconceptions can be found, either explicitly or implicitly, in the published literature because a population definition for this statistic is rarely discussed within the social and behavioural sciences. By relying on copula distribution theory, a population model is presented for the Spearman rank correlation, and its properties are explored both theoretically and in a simulation study. Through the use of the Iman–Conover algorithm (which allows the user to specify the rank correlation as a population parameter), simulation studies from previously published articles are explored, and it is found that many of the conclusions purported in them regarding the nature of the Spearman correlation would change if the data‐generation mechanism better matched the simulation design. More specifically, issues such as small sample bias and lack of power of the t‐test and r‐to‐z Fisher transformation disappear when the rank correlation is calculated from data sampled where the rank correlation is the population parameter. A proof for the consistency of the sample estimate of the rank correlation is shown as well as the flexibility of the copula model to encompass results previously published in the mathematical literature.     

控制幻觉的研究方法、形成机制和影响因素

控制幻觉是指在完全不可控或部分不可控的情境下, 个体由于不合理地高估自己对环境或事件结果的控制力而产生的一种判断偏差。控制幻觉普遍存在于博彩游戏、医疗保健、心理健康、投资决策等实践领域。控制幻觉的研究方法主要包括间接测量方法、自我报告方法和实验室任务方法。控制启发式理论和调节定向理论则对控制幻觉的产生原因进行了解释。控制幻觉的影响因素包括人格因素、动机、权力、反馈、事件与个体的关联性、指导语等。未来的研究可从控制幻觉的多变量及交互作用研究、跨文化研究、调控策略研究等方面做进一步探讨。     

Freud's metapsychological speculations1

In this paper, the author seeks to analyse the nature and function of metapsychological theory in Freudian psychoanalysis. He shows that Freudian psychoanalytic theory is composed of an empirical part‐the psychology of clinical facts‐and a speculative part‐metapsychology. Freud considers this latter part as being a speculative superstructure of value that is only heuristic, capable of being supplanted by other superstructures of the same type. The author sustains the idea that this metapsychology is the fruit of speculative method, whose foundations were elaborated by philosophers and epistemologists before Freud, including Immanuel Kant and Ernst Mach. He concludes with considerations regarding the future of metapsychological theorisation, presenting criticisms of Freudian metapsychology offered by both philosophers and psychoanalysts, and pointing to the perspective opened by Donald W. Winnicott of a psychoanalysis without metapsychology.     

Sturdy roots for the graceful eucalyptus: The parallel process of integrating counselling around a client's needs and aligning research paradigms with methodology

This article explores the relationship between the therapist as an eclectic clinician and the therapist as researcher. The process of finding a well-grounded place for my heuristic inquiry in academic discourse is compared with the struggle to find unity and integrity in the counselling of a client using many modalities. The intellectual and emotional struggle in either case is similar. It is posited that the engagement of students of counselling in research, therefore, has a clinical as well as an academic purpose, but that this benefit needs to be made explicit.     

儿童的决策行为

现有的研究表明,儿童早期就具有一定的利用概率和统计信息来做决策的能力,这种能力随着年龄增长,但和成人相比存在差异;儿童和成人同样运用启发式来做决策,且受许多判断偏见的影响。儿童的决策行为受到人格特征、性别、年龄、任务领域特殊性和信息表征等因素的影响。文中还介绍了决策的自我调节模型和“双过程”理论,从不同的角度解释和预测儿童决策行为的发展。最后分析了儿童决策研究的趋势。     

顿悟与源事件中启发信息的激活

采用先学习源事件、后进行顿悟问题解决的两阶段实验范型,探讨了大学生解决九点四划问题的成功顿悟与源事件中所包含的启发信息提取之间的内在联系。结果发现,在顿悟问题解决阶段,只有激活学习阶段所获得的源事件中所包含的启发信息,才能成功解决顿悟问题。但并非所有激活源事件的被试都能成功解决九点四划问题,这取决于从源事件中所提取的启发信息的质量。研究结果还表明,内隐学习组与外显学习组正确解决九点问题的人数百分比差异并不显著,证明源事件中所包含的启发信息的激活,可能主要是自动加工的结果。     

Exact Interval Estimation, Power Calculation, and Sample Size Determination in Normal Correlation Analysis

This paper considers the problem of analysis of correlation coefficients from a multivariate normal population. A unified theorem is derived for the regression model with normally distributed explanatory variables and the general results are employed to provide useful expressions for the distributions of simple, multiple, and partial-multiple correlation coefficients. The inversion principle and monotonicity property of the proposed formulations are used to describe alternative approaches to the exact interval estimation, power calculation, and sample size determination for correlation coefficients. The author thanks the referees for their constructive comments and helpful suggestions and especially the associate editor for drawing attention to several critical results which led to substantial improvements of the exposition. The work for this paper was initiated while the author was visiting the Department of Statistics, Stanford University. This research was partially supported by National Science Council Grant NSC-94-2118-M-009-004. Request for reprints should be sent to Gwowen Shieh, Department of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan 30050, ROC.