How Long Do Offenders Escape Arrest? Using DNA Traces to Analyse when Serial Offenders Are Caught

Why is it that some serial offenders are arrested quickly and others only after a long period, or never at all? What characterises offenders who continue to escape arrest despite their continued involvement in crime? To be able to answer these questions, arrested (identified) offenders must be compared with never arrested (unidentified) offenders. In this paper, data from the Dutch DNA database are used to assess which characteristics of the criminal behaviour of unidentified offenders influence the probability that they will subsequently be arrested. DNA data offer a unique opportunity to compare crime series of identified offenders with crime series of yet unidentified offenders. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we tested whether the number of crimes committed, offence specialization, and offence seriousness affect the probability of arrest of serial offenders. Results showed that as an offender commits more crimes, the probability that he will be arrested increases and that offence specialization decreases the probability of arrest. Another conclusion drawn is that DNA traces offer unique opportunities for criminological research. We discuss the limitations of this new data source and make suggestions for future research using DNA traces and for future research that might improve the current study. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Personality Bases of Ideology: A One-Year Longitudinal Study

ABSTRACT

The cross-lagged effects of the Big-Five personality dimensions on Social Dominance Orientation (SDO) and Right-Wing Authoritarianism (RWA) were examined over 1 year (N = 112). Consistent with the Dual Process Cognitive-Motivational Model, SDO and RWA exhibited markedly different personality bases. Low Agreeableness and unexpectedly high Extraversion predicted change in the motivational goal for group-based dominance and superiority (SDO), whereas Openness to Experience predicted change in the motivational goal for social cohesion and collective security (RWA). Neuroticism and Conscientiousness did not predict change in SDO or RWA over time. These findings extend previous cross-sectional (correlational) research and indicate that key dimensions of personality (primarily Agreeableness and Openness to Experience) are an important temporal antecedent of the group-based motivational goals underlying individual differences in prejudice.     

Perceived Discrimination and Health-Related Quality of Life: Testing the Reserve Capacity Model in Hispanic Americans

ABSTRACT

This study tested aspects of the Reserve Capacity Model (Gallo & Matthews, 2003 Gallo, L. C. and Matthews, K. A. 2003. Understanding the association between socioeconomic status and physical health: Do negative emotions play a role?. Psychological Bulletin, 129: 10–51. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Gallo, Penedo Espinosa de los Monteros, & Arguelles, 2009 Gallo, L. C., Penedo, F. J., Espinosa de los Monteros, K. and Arguelles, W. 2009. Resiliency in the face of disadvantage: Do Hispanic cultural characteristics protect health outcomes?. Journal of Personality, 77: 1707–1746. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) as a means of understanding disparities in health-related quality of life appraisals among Hispanic Americans. Questionnaire data were collected from 236 Hispanic participants, including measures of perceived discrimination, optimism, social support, symptoms of trait anxiety, and physical and mental health-related quality of life. Path analysis indicated direct, negative associations between perceived discrimination and both forms of health-related quality of life. Results also showed that these relationships were partially mediated by the reserve capacity variable of optimism and by symptoms of anxiety, though evidence for mediation by anxiety was stronger than for optimism. Findings suggest that perceived discrimination depletes intrapersonal reserves in Hispanic Americans, which, in turn, induces negative emotions. Implications for community-level interventions are discussed.     

The interaction of temporal generalization gradients predicts the context effect

In a temporal double bisection task, animals learn two discriminations. In the presence of Red and Green keys, responses to Red are reinforced after 1-s samples and responses to Green are reinforced after 4-s samples; in the presence of Blue and Yellow keys, responses to Blue are reinforced after 4-s samples and responses to Yellow are reinforced after 16-s samples. Subsequently, given a choice between Green and Blue, the probability of choosing Green increases with the sample duration-the context effect. In the present study we asked whether this effect could be predicted from the stimulus generalization gradients induced by the two basic discriminations. Six pigeons learned to peck Green following 4-s samples (S(+)) but not following 1-s samples (S(-)) and to peck Red following 4-s samples (S(+)) but not following 16-s samples (S(-)). Temporal generalization gradients for Green and Red were then obtained. Finally, the pigeons were given a choice between Green and Red following sample durations ranging from 1 to 16 s. Results showed that a) the two generalization gradients had the minimum at the S(-) duration, an intermediate value between the S(-) and the S(+) durations, and the maximum at the S(+) as well as more extreme durations; b) on choice trials, preference for Green over Red increased with sample duration, the context effect; and c) the two generalization gradients predicted the average context effect well. The Learning-to-Time model accounts for the major trends in the data.     

Multilevel Reliability Measures of Latent Scores Within an Item Response Theory Framework

Abstract

This paper evaluated multilevel reliability measures in two-level nested designs (e.g., students nested within teachers) within an item response theory framework. A simulation study was implemented to investigate the behavior of the multilevel reliability measures and the uncertainty associated with the measures in various multilevel designs regarding the number of clusters, cluster sizes, and intraclass correlations (ICCs), and in different test lengths, for two parameterizations of multilevel item response models with separate item discriminations or the same item discrimination over levels. Marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)-multiple imputation and Bayesian analysis were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rates of Monte Carlo (MC) confidence or credible intervals. Considering the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the intervals, the results lead us to generally recommend MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with separate item discriminations over levels, marginally acceptable accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were found in a limited condition, 200 clusters, 30 cluster size, .2 ICC, and 40 items, in MMLE-multiple imputation. In the model with the same item discrimination over levels, the accuracy of the multilevel reliability measures and the empirical coverage rate of the MC confidence intervals were acceptable in all multilevel designs we considered with 40 items under MMLE-multiple imputation. We discuss these findings and provide guidelines for reporting multilevel reliability measures.     

Personality trait inferences of Turkish immigrant and neutral targets: An experimental study

Sandal, G. M. Bye, H. H. & Pallesen, S. (2012). Personality trait inferences of Turkish immigrant and neutral targets: An experimental study. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology 53, 528–533. The study investigated whether personality traits attributed to immigrant targets differ from personality inferences made for a neutral target, and whether trait attributions differ for assimilated and integrated immigrant targets. Participants (n = 340) were randomized to one of three conditions in which they read the same story about a person, but where the person was described as either: (a) an assimilated Turkish immigrant; (b) an integrated Turkish immigrant; or (c) neutral (no nationality or religious practice indicated). Subsequently, they rated the personality of the described person on the NEO‐Five Factor Inventory (observer rating version) and completed the Balanced Inventory of Desirable Responding (Impression Management scale) with reference to themselves. Both immigrant targets were rated as significantly higher on extraversion and lower on neuroticism than the neutral target. The integrated target was rated as more open than the neutral target, and as higher than the assimilated target on neuroticism when controlling for impression management.     

The cortical organization of lexical knowledge: a dual lexicon model of spoken language processing

Current accounts of spoken language assume the existence of a lexicon where wordforms are stored and interact during spoken language perception, understanding and production. Despite the theoretical importance of the wordform lexicon, the exact localization and function of the lexicon in the broader context of language use is not well understood. This review draws on evidence from aphasia, functional imaging, neuroanatomy, laboratory phonology and behavioral results to argue for the existence of parallel lexica that facilitate different processes in the dorsal and ventral speech pathways. The dorsal lexicon, localized in the inferior parietal region including the supramarginal gyrus, serves as an interface between phonetic and articulatory representations. The ventral lexicon, localized in the posterior superior temporal sulcus and middle temporal gyrus, serves as an interface between phonetic and semantic representations. In addition to their interface roles, the two lexica contribute to the robustness of speech processing.     

Mood-congruent thoughts and personality disorder pathology

The primary aim of this research was to investigate associations that depression severity and trait anxiety have with reactions to specific, identifiable thoughts experienced by persons with varying levels of personality disorder (PD) pathology as they went about their day-to-day lives. Ninety-eight psychotropic medication-free persons participated in an experience sampling assessment procedure over four consecutive days, during which participants recorded specific thoughts experienced moments before a page signal was received and corresponding ratings of thought discomfort. Thought discomfort, regarded as an emotional reaction to thoughts or their evaluation, was moderately associated with several forms of PD pathology, particularly Cluster C pathology. Once depression severity and trait anxiety were controlled, however, associations between PD pathology and thought discomfort were eliminated. Findings from this research generally support the mood-congruence of negatively valenced thoughts in relation to PD pathology.     

Perspective-taking and depth of theory-of-mind reasoning in sequential-move games

Theory-of-mind (ToM) involves modeling an individual's mental states to plan one's action and to anticipate others' actions through recursive reasoning that may be myopic (with limited recursion) or predictive (with full recursion). ToM recursion was examined using a series of two-player, sequential-move matrix games with a maximum of three steps. Participants were assigned the role of Player I, controlling the initial and the last step, or of Player II, controlling the second step. Appropriate for the assigned role, participants either anticipated or planned Player II's strategy at the second step, and then determined Player I's optimal strategy at the first step. Participants more readily used predictive reasoning as Player II (i.e., planning one's own move) than as Player I (i.e., anticipating an opponent's move), although they did not differ when translating reasoning outcome about the second step to optimal action in the first step. Perspective-taking influenced likelihood of predictive reasoning, but it did not affect the rate at which participants acquired it during the experimental block. We conclude that the depth of ToM recursion (related to perspective-taking mechanisms) and rational application of belief-desire to action (instrumental rationality) constitute separate cognitive processes in ToM reasoning.