Do medical decision analyses' largest gains grow from the smallest trees?

Some decision analysts recommend reserving their models for careful, complete study of complex problems. Others believe simple problem analyses provide the greatest gains. To clarify these issues, I tested: (1) whether simple published analyses compared to complex ones, produced results as non-intuitive; and (2) whether non-intuitiveness represented analytic gain (or equivalently, intuitive loss). Very limited data also examined (3) the gain from adding model intricacy for a given problem vs. selecting more complex problems for analysis. To assess two non-intuitiveness measures, 75 subjects (33 physicians and 42) non-physicians stated their intuitive preferences in 40 (22 published and 18 unpublished) medical dilemmas. For both physicians and non-physicians, simpler models (those with lees than 30 terminal branches in the decision tree) had about one third the non-intuitiveness of more complex ones. Three tests also supported the premise that analyses outperform intuition, therefore that on average the formers' non-intuitiveness reflects less analytic gain. In addition, for different models of the same problem, tree complexity did not correlate with gain. Thus, simpler trees may not generally gain less because they inadequately describe problems. Instead, simpler analyses may represent simpler problems, with more similar intuitive and formal solutions. If so, these findings may help us avoid some costly but unnecessary simple analyses.     

The design and evaluation of a worksharing system for experimental group living

Failure to share household chores equitably may be a major cause of the high failure rate of experimental group-living arrangements. A behavioral approach to worksharing based on a point system was implemented in one experimental group and its most important components experimentally evaluated. Experiment I showed that awarding credits produced more work than not awarding credits. Experiment II showed that making credits contingent on the outcome of a detailed inspection produced more work than awarding credits noncontingently. Experiment III demonstrated that awarding rent reductions contingent on credit earnings produced more work than awarding rent reductions noncontingently. Other evaluative data suggest that the resulting living arrangement is cheaper, more effective, and more satisfactory to the residents when compared to the most popular alternative living arrangements.     

文字的“偷心术”:营销中的字体效应

文字是营销中视觉传播的重要元素, 它直接影响消费者对品牌的第一印象。文字的重要性不仅体现在文本内容上, 还体现在字形设计对消费者的影响上。字体的研究仍存在较大的空缺, 且现有文献多分散于语言学、设计学和心理学等不同学科领域。目前有较多存在矛盾的结论缺乏系统的框架支持, 本文为研究者提供了完整的字体效应研究框架。将字体进行定义及分类之后, 主要探讨了字体对消费者感知和行为的影响, 以及字体效应的三大心理机制, 即感知一致性、感知记忆性和感知人性化。在此基础上讨论了字体受到消费者特质、产品类型与外部环境的调节作用。最后, 深入分析了字体在市场营销中的理论和管理实践价值, 以及未来研究方向。     

Ethical dilemmas in testing for late onset conditions: reactions to testing and perceived impact on other family members

This paper examines some of the ethical dilemmas that arise when testing for the late onset, untreatable condition of Huntington disease (HD) specifically now that technology allows us to test younger generations of the family for the mutant gene. Drawing on interview data from families with Huntington disease, the reactions to testing and perceived impact on other family members are considered. These are discussed in the light of the possible lowering of the age of test applicants. This potentially raises problems for a younger generation as they are confronted with reproductive decisions that the older generation did not have to face. It also means that individuals have the prospect of living with knowledge of a future illness for much longer.     

时间、目的与行为特征对群体决策绩效的影响

96名大学生,4人一组,参加了评价警察行为的决策实验.研究采用2×2×2(时间×目的×行为特征)因子式设计,旨在分析时间、目的和行为特征如何对中国人群体决策行为产生影响.结果表明,决策群体在行为记忆上的准确性优于成员个体,但群体的决策标准比个体冒险;时间、目的及行为特征影响群体决策的绩效.结论支持了"互补性假设"及K R Murplhy对时间与目的之间交互作用的解释.     

Culture Is More than a Static Residual: Introduction to the Special Section on Culture and Foreign Policy

The literature on international relations frequently refers to culture in broad, macro-level ways to explain what cannot be explained by economic or military power. The assumptions that culture is simple, uniform and the opposite of power are, in the view of the authors, erroneous. Also, the authors note that there is a lack of scholarly interaction among psychologists interested in cross-cultural phenomena and international relations specialists interested in questions of identity and foreign policy. As an introduction to a special section on culture and foreign policy, this article calls for more communication among these scholarly communities; provides a set of observations about foreign policy and culture understood as a complex, dynamic concept; and calls for specific kinds of studies to better understand foreign policy in the context of cultural complexity and richness.     

Faulty Judgment,Expert Opinion,and Decision-Making Capacity

An assessment of decision-making capacity is the accepted procedure for determining when a person is not competent. An inferential gap exists between the criteria for capacity specific abilities and the legal requirements to understand relevant information and appreciate the consequences of a decision. This gap extends to causal influences on a person'scapacity to decide. Using a published case of depression, we illustrate that assessors' uses of diagnostic information is frequently not up to the task of bridging this inferential gap in a justifiable way. We then describe cases of faulty judgement which challenge the understanding of diagnostic causal influences. These cases help to clarify the nature of the expertise required for capacity assessments. In practice, the requirements of decision-making capacity are often abandoned to other considerations due to a lack of requisite expertise. The legal policy supporting decision-making capacity as a means to protective intervention is justified only if the requisite expertise is developed. We propose the requisite expertise to be developed in the long term as a distinct multidisciplinary endeavour.     

Psychoanalysis and Diplomacy: Part III. Potentials for and Obstacles Against Collaboration

Given the pervasive influence of Realpolitik over government and the study of international relations, and some inherent difficulties within the field of psychoanalysis, it is not surprising that political science and psychoanalysis remain distant cousins. Part III in this series on diplomacy and psychoanalysis discusses obstacles against collaboration between these two disciplines, but also points to areas where collaboration is possible and can be useful.     

消费者产品质量知觉研究

本文探讨了品牌、产地、价格、服务及消费者的知识经验对消费者产品质量知觉的影响。结果表明：１、品牌、产地、服务对消费者的产品质量知觉有显著影响;２、消费者对名牌产品的质量知觉显著高于不知名品牌,对进口产品质量知觉显著高于国产产品,对服务好的产品质量知觉显著高于服务差的产品;３、知识经验丰富的消费者的产品质量知觉易受品牌的影响,而知识经验不足的消费者的产品质量知觉易受价格、服务的影响。