新世纪20年国内心理统计方法研究回顾

新世纪头20年, 国内心理学11本专业期刊一共发表了213篇统计方法研究论文。研究范围主要包括以下10类(按论文篇数排序)：结构方程模型、测验信度、中介效应、效应量与检验力、纵向研究、调节效应、探索性因子分析、潜在类别模型、共同方法偏差和多层线性模型。对各类做了简单的回顾与梳理。结果发现, 国内心理统计方法研究的广度和深度都不断增加, 研究热点在相互融合中共同发展; 但综述类论文比例较大, 原创性研究论文比例有待提高, 研究力量也有待加强。     

Bayesian change-point analysis reveals developmental change in a classic theory of mind task

Although learning and development reflect changes situated in an individual brain, most discussions of behavioral change are based on the evidence of group averages. Our reliance on group-averaged data creates a dilemma. On the one hand, we need to use traditional inferential statistics. On the other hand, group averages are highly ambiguous when we need to understand change in the individual; the average pattern of change may characterize all, some, or none of the individuals in the group. Here we present a new method for statistically characterizing developmental change in each individual child we study. Using false-belief tasks, fifty-two children in two cohorts were repeatedly tested for varying lengths of time between 3 and 5 years of age. Using a novel Bayesian change point analysis, we determined both the presence and—just as importantly—the absence of change in individual longitudinal cumulative records. Whenever the analysis supports a change conclusion, it identifies in that child’s record the most likely point at which change occurred. Results show striking variability in patterns of change and stability across individual children. We then group the individuals by their various patterns of change or no change. The resulting patterns provide scarce support for sudden changes in competence and shed new light on the concepts of “passing” and “failing” in developmental studies.     

An Introduction to Kristof’s Theorem for Solving Least-Square Optimization Problems Without Calculus

Kristof’s Theorem (Kristof, 1970 Kristof, W. (1970). A theorem on the trace of certain matrix products and some applications. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 7(3), 515–530. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(70)90037-4[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) describes a matrix trace inequality that can be used to solve a wide-class of least-square optimization problems without calculus. Considering its generality, it is surprising that Kristof’s Theorem is rarely used in statistics and psychometric applications. The underutilization of this method likely stems, in part, from the mathematical complexity of Kristof’s (1964 Kristof, W. (1964). Die beste orthogonale Transformation zur gegenseitigen Uberfiihrung zweier Faktorenmatrizen. Diagnostica, 10, 87–90. [Google Scholar], 1970 Kristof, W. (1970). A theorem on the trace of certain matrix products and some applications. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 7(3), 515–530. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(70)90037-4[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) writings. In this article, I describe the underlying logic of Kristof’s Theorem in simple terms by reviewing four key mathematical ideas that are used in the theorem’s proof. I then show how Kristof’s Theorem can be used to provide novel derivations to two cognate models from statistics and psychometrics. This tutorial includes a glossary of technical terms and an online supplement with R (R Core Team, 2017 R Core Team (2017). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Retrieved from https://www.R-project.org/ [Google Scholar]) code to perform the calculations described in the text.     

Approximations to the distribution of a test statistic in covariance structure analysis: A comprehensive study

In structural equation modelling (SEM), a robust adjustment to the test statistic or to its reference distribution is needed when its null distribution deviates from a χ² distribution, which usually arises when data do not follow a multivariate normal distribution. Unfortunately, existing studies on this issue typically focus on only a few methods and neglect the majority of alternative methods in statistics. Existing simulation studies typically consider only non-normal distributions of data that either satisfy asymptotic robustness or lead to an asymptotic scaled χ² distribution. In this work we conduct a comprehensive study that involves both typical methods in SEM and less well-known methods from the statistics literature. We also propose the use of several novel non-normal data distributions that are qualitatively different from the non-normal distributions widely used in existing studies. We found that several under-studied methods give the best performance under specific conditions, but the Satorra–Bentler method remains the most viable method for most situations.     

心理测量本身及其在应用中的问题

从三个维度对心理测量进行了探讨：由理论基础上的缺陷所导致的局限性、在应用中所带来的问题以及由于运用统计相关分析所带来的弊端。最后对克服这些局限性的其它方法做简单介绍。     

考试抄袭识别的心理测量学研究回顾

考试抄袭是最难识别的作弊方式。抄袭统计量（ACS）和人员拟合统计量（PFS）是识别抄袭的两类主要统计方法。ACS是根据被怀疑抄袭者与被抄袭者实际得分模式相似的概率来识别抄袭者。PFS 则把一个观察的项目得分模式与一定的测量模型相对比,来检验被试得分模式是否与测量模型预测的模式相吻合。其中,PFS由于在识别异常得分模式时存在一些干扰因素,所以对结果的解释存在多样性,应用较少。ACS是专门用于识别抄袭的统计方法,研究表明其识别率更高。目前ACS指标在美国的SAT和一些资格认证考试中已经得到广泛应用     

Exploring Directional Consistency in Offending: The Case of Residential Burglary in The Hague

Many aspects of human behaviour are remarkably stable across times, places and situations. Repetition and predictability also characterises our geographical behaviour. Prior research has confirmed that criminal behaviour is no exception. Offenders tend to recidivate, and recidivists tend to be behaviourally consistent in many aspects, including geographical ones. The present study assesses directional consistency in offending. It reviews the literature on directional consistency. It proposes an improved measure of directional consistency, and empirically uses this measure to explore directional consistency amongst a set of 268 burglars in The Hague. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Episodes of momentary resilience in daily life are associated with HRV reductions to stressful operations in firefighters: an ambulatory assessment approach using bayesian multilevel modeling

ABSTRACT

Background: Resilience is discussed to constitute a protective buffer against stress, thus fostering health. Methods: This study aimed to assess resilience both via traditional questionnaire and in everyday life on a momentary basis, and to relate these measures to autonomic functioning (heart rate variability, HRV) in 38 male firefighters during a weekday. Stressful operations, non-stressful operations and routine work at the firestation were coded during 24 hours. Momentary negative affect, feelings of resilience, and HRV were recorded via ecological momentary assessment. Findings: Questionnaire-assessed resilience was significantly positively associated with aggregated momentary resilience (r = .58, p < .001), but unrelated to HRV. However, controlling for multiple confounders (e.g., age, smoking, bodily movement, waist-to-height ratio) momentary resilience was associated with attenuated HRV and lower negative affect during stressful encounters only. Discussion: The findings suggest that momentary feelings of resilience are accompanied by vagal withdrawal to stress, possibly indicating psychological flexibility and adaptive responding to stress.     

Outline of a Physico-Mathematical Theory of the Brain

The author comments on the (mis?)portrayal of her research in an article by Brand and Bradley (2012).