MCMC estimation and some model-fit analysis of multidimensional IRT models

A Bayesian procedure to estimate the three-parameter normal ogive model and a generalization of the procedure to a model with multidimensional ability parameters are presented. The procedure is a generalization of a procedure by Albert (1992) for estimating the two-parameter normal ogive model. The procedure supports analyzing data from multiple populations and incomplete designs. It is shown that restrictions can be imposed on the factor matrix for testing specific hypotheses about the ability structure. The technique is illustrated using simulated and real data. The authors would like to thank Norman Verhelst for his valuable comments and ACT, CITO group and SweSAT for the use of their data.     

样例学习条件下的因果力估计

在逐个呈现因果样例的条件下,考察单一因果关系因果力估计的特点,同时检验联想解释,概率对比模型,权重DP模型,效力PC理论和pCI规则。实验让65名大学生被试估计不同化学药物影响动物基因变异的能力。实验结果表明：（1）对产生原因的因果力估计符合权重DP模型;（2）对预防原因的因果力估计较多符合效力PC理论;（3）因果力估计具有复杂多样性,难以用统一的模式加以描述和概括。     

Rule following and rule use in the balance-scale task

Quinlan et al. [Quinlan, p., van der Mass, H., Jansen, B., Booij, O., & Rendell, M. (this issue). Re-thinking stages of cognitive development: An appraisal of connectionist models of the balance scale task. Cognition, doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2006.02.004] use Latent Class Analysis (LCA) to criticize a connectionist model of development on the balance-scale task, arguing that LCA shows that this model fails to capture a torque rule and exhibits rules that children do not. In this rejoinder we focus on the latter problem, noting the tendency of LCA to find small, unreliable, and difficult-to-interpret classes. This tendency is documented in network and synthetic simulations and in psychological research, and statistical reasons for finding such unreliable classes are discussed. We recommend that LCA should be used with care, and argue that its small and unreliable classes should be discounted. Further, we note that a preoccupation with diagnosing rules ignores important phenomena that rules do not account for. Finally, we conjecture that simple extensions of the network model should be able to achieve torque-rule performance.     

医学伦理的多元、通约及其他--《医学伦理学》序

要重视医学伦理学的理论研究,案例分析不能完全取代理论讲授。医学伦理学是多元的,许多伦理问题的答案可有多种选择。许多不同伦理思想之间不仅有其差异,同时又是相容和可通约的。我们在尊重伦理多元化的同时,还应致力于寻求人类共同的道德准则和全球伦理的建设。     

Random effects and extended generalized partial credit models

In this paper it is shown that under the random effects generalized partial credit model for the measurement of a single latent variable by a set of polytomously scored items, the joint marginal probability distribution of the item scores has a closed-form expression in terms of item category location parameters, parameters that characterize the distribution of the latent variable in the subpopulation of examinees with a zero score on all items, and item-scaling parameters. Due to this closed-form expression, all parameters of the random effects generalized partial credit model can be estimated using marginal maximum likelihood estimation without assuming a particular distribution of the latent variable in the population of examinees and without using numerical integration. Also due to this closed-form expression, new special cases of the random effects generalized partial credit model can be identified. In addition to these new special cases, a slightly more general model than the random effects generalized partial credit model is presented. This slightly more general model is called the extended generalized partial credit model. Attention is paid to maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the extended generalized partial credit model and to assessing the goodness of fit of the model using generalized likelihood ratio tests. Attention is also paid to person parameter estimation under the random effects generalized partial credit model. It is shown that expected a posteriori estimates can be obtained for all possible score patterns. A simulation study is carried out to show the usefulness of the proposed models compared to the standard models that assume normality of the latent variable in the population of examinees. In an empirical example, some of the procedures proposed are demonstrated.     

Excessive confidence in visually-based estimates

People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous estimates to make incentive-compatible decisions even when objective information can be easily obtained. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the biased decisions disappear when confidence in visually-based estimates is called into question by the perceived complexity of the stimulus.     

Modeling storage and retrieval processes with clinical populations with applications examining alcohol-induced amnesia and Korsakoff amnesia

Multinomial processing tree models can provide for measures of underlying cognitive processes. In this paper, the Chechile [Chechile, R. A. (2004). New multinomial models for the Chechile-Meyer task. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 48, 364-384] 6P model is described and applied to several applications involving clinical populations. The model provides for separate measures of storage and retrieval. Monte Carlo studies were conducted to examine the relative accuracy of two methods for obtaining an overall condition estimate for the 6P model, i.e., averaging estimates found for individuals versus pooling the multinomial frequency data before estimating the model parameters. The sampling studies showed that the pooling of frequencies resulted in more accurate parameter estimates. However, psychological assessment in clinical psychology requires precise measurement on an individual basis. In order to recover information about individuals from pooled frequency information, a modified jackknife method was advanced. The jackknife method is based on a contrast between the overall pooled frequency information and the pool frequency without the observations from a single individual. Another series of Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the new jackknife method resulted in better recovery of the correct individual parameter values relative to estimates based on only the data from the individual. Finally, the 6P model was used to examine the data from two previously reported studies with clinical populations. One application addressed the effect of alcohol-induced amnesia, and the other application dealt with Korsakoff amnesia. In both cases the pattern of storage and retrieval measurements resulted in a clarification of the underlying storage and retrieval differences between the clinical group and the control group.     

个人-组织匹配的概念、测量策略及应用:基于互动性与灵活性的反思

个人-组织匹配(Person-Organization Fit,简称P-O匹配)的提出契合了组织行为学中人与情境双向互动的研究趋势,同时也符合组织及其成员灵活应对动态格局的现实要求。这种以双边互动性和匹配灵活性为出发点和立足点的研究是P-O匹配的特色所在。然而,目前该领域考察呈现出淡化原有独特立意的倾向。为此,我们在梳理P-O匹配学术背景和社会背景的基础上,强调将互动性和灵活性这两点基本要求融入其概念界定、测量策略的选取及应用课题当中,是为P-O匹配特色的重拾。     

制约我国“新型农村合作医疗”可持续发展的因素及对策

论文分析了我国“新型农村合作医疗”在实行过程中存在的制度推行难、基金筹集难、有效管理难等问题,讨论了制约其可持续发展的因素:观念因素、体制因素、道德因素、管理因素,并提出相应了更新观念,政府主导,创新体制,加强立法等对策。