Confirmation Ministry in the Batak Church

Historically, confirmation ministry among Batak's took the form of missionaries presenting the Christian religion in an apologetic and persuasive tone, in an effort to ready Batak converts for Baptism. Today, confirmation ministry among Batak Christians is understood as a fleshing out of what it means to be baptized into the church community. This article explores the method and aims of the confirmation rite and ministry among Batak Christians.     

The “analysis of competing hypotheses” in intelligence analysis

The intelligence community uses “structured analytic techniques” to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)—a technique designed to reduce “confirmation bias.” Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts' judgement processes and conclusions were collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH‐trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH's ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgement inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful and to explore alternatives.     

Value expectation confirmation and word-of-mouth intention among international tourists of a cultural festival experience

We examined expectation conformation and word-of-mouth marketing intention among international tourists (177 white; 138 black; and 98 Asian) who experienced a tourism promotion cultural festival event; taking into account their personal, artistic, and societal cultural values. We applied multiple regression analysis to predict expectation conformation and word-of-mouth marketing intention from the tourists’ personal, artistic, and societal cultural values. For the white and Asian tourists, sociocultural value predicted expectation confirmation the most. For the black tourists, personal value explained their expectation confirmation more than did sociocultural value. Culturally framed perceived values appear to influence the ways tourists respond to tourism festivals.     

中学生价值观问卷的编制及其结构验证

基于理论分析和开放式调查的结果,通过系统过程编制了中学生价值观问卷,对来自北京、河北和广西等地971名中学生的价值观测量数据进行了分析。结果发现,中学生价值观由目标价值和手段价值两个基本维度构成,前者包括生理与安全、享乐、物质、自我实现、认知、尊重、归属、情感、抽象感受、社会和公理等11个因素;后者则包括自身能力、性格特点、与人交往的态度和行事方式等4个因素。《中学生价值观问卷》具有良好的信度和效度,且其结构在不同性别、年级样本中具有一致性,可作为中学生价值观的评定工具。     

眼见为实?视觉搜索的证实反应与策略反应

为检验视觉搜索加工过程中目标驱动与刺激驱动的制约关系,本研究采用视觉搜索范式,操作靶目标颜色与样例颜色是否匹配,以及搜索刺激集的样例颜色比例两个搜索难度变量;并根据靶目标兴趣区注视点情况,把搜索策略划分为证实反应与策略反应。结果表明,在搜索难度增加时,证实反应的比例下降,而策略反应的比例上升,这表明搜索策略的转换优化了注意选择功能。     

Refining the blank line-up procedure: How should we instruct eyewitnesses?

Presenting a blank line-up—containing only fillers—to witnesses prior to showing a real line-up might be useful for screening out those who pick from the blank line-up as unreliable witnesses. We show that the effectiveness of this procedure varies depending on instructions given to witnesses. Participants (N = 462) viewed a simulated crime and attempted to identify the perpetrator from a line-up approximately 1 week later. Rejecting a blank line-up was associated with greater identification accuracy and greater diagnosticity of suspect identifications, but only when witnesses were instructed prior to the blank line-up that they would view a series of line-ups; the procedure was ineffective for screening when witnesses were advised they would view two line-ups or received no instruction. These results highlight the importance of instructions used in the blank line-up procedure, and the need for better understanding of how to interpret choosing patterns in this paradigm.     

Confirmation Bias and the Sexual Double Standard

In contemporary Western societies it is widely believed that there is a sexual double standard such that men are rewarded for sexual activity, whereas women are derogated for sexual activity. This pervasive belief may result in a confirmation bias such that people tend to notice information that confirms the double standard and fail to notice information that refutes it. Two studies were conducted to test this hypothesis. In both studies, participants read vignettes about a target man or a woman that contained an equal number of positive and negative comments regarding the target's sexuality. Participants recalled more information consistent with the double standard than inconsistent with it.     

Let's find the evidence: an analogue study of confirmation bias in criminal investigations

People involved in criminal proceedings (e.g. police officers, district attorneys, judges, and jury members) may run the risk of developing confirmation bias, or tunnel vision. That is, these parties may readily become convinced that the suspect is guilty, and may then no longer be open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is actually innocent. This may be reflected in a preference for guilt‐confirming investigation endeavours, as opposed to investigations that are aimed at confirming, or even excluding, alternative scenarios. In three studies, participants read a case file, and were subsequently instructed to select additional police investigations. Some of these additional endeavours were guilt‐confirming (i.e. incriminating), whereas others were disconfirming (i.e. exonerating). Results suggest that additional investigation search was guided by an initial assessment of the suspect's guilt (Study 1). Furthermore, participants' tendency to select incriminating investigations increased with increased crime severity, and with the strength of the evidence present in the case file. Finally, the selection of incriminating investigations was associated with conviction rates (Study 3). However, in general, participants did not favour incriminating endeavours. That is, in the three studies, the percentages of selected incriminating endeavours did hardly or not exceed 50%. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Test of the analysis of competing hypotheses in legal decision‐making

The analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) has been suggested to be a method that can protect against confirmation bias in the context of intelligence analysis. In the current study, we aimed to determine whether ACH could counter confirmation bias in the reasoning with evidence in the context of criminal law proceedings. Law students (N = 191) received information about the ACH method or general information about biases. They were given a case vignette with a main suspect and a list of 24 questions, 6 of which they could ask about the case. Half of the questions related to incriminating information, whereas the other half related to exonerating information. Contrary to our expectations, participants in both conditions favoured questions relating to exonerating information and rated the exonerating evidence as being more important for their decision. Despite the lack of bias observed, it seems participants failed to properly apply the ACH method.     

具身化空间四卡问题解决的内容效应

利用三个实验探讨了左右、前后(实验1,2)具身化空间四卡问题解决的内容效应,同时探讨了条件推理后件类型(二分变量与连续性变量)对具身化内容效应的影响(实验3)。结果发现:(1)三个实验均表现出在自我参照空间四卡问题解决中,肯定前件和否定后件同时被选择的比率(P-Q)显著高于在经典四卡问题或环境参照空间四卡问题中P-Q卡被选择的比率,从而表现出四卡问题解决存在具身化内容效应;(2)具身化内容效应仅限于后件类型是二分变量的四卡问题;(3)在三个实验中被试均表现出"证真偏向"。具身化空间四卡问题解决的内容效应支持了条件推理领域特异性理论。