Standard errors and confidence intervals for correlations corrected for indirect range restriction: A simulation study comparing analytic and bootstrap methods

A frequent topic of psychological research is the estimation of the correlation between two variables from a sample that underwent a selection process based on a third variable. Due to indirect range restriction, the sample correlation is a biased estimator of the population correlation, and a correction formula is used. In the past, bootstrap standard error and confidence intervals for the corrected correlations were examined with normal data. The present study proposes a large-sample estimate (an analytic method) for the standard error, and a corresponding confidence interval for the corrected correlation. Monte Carlo simulation studies involving both normal and non-normal data were conducted to examine the empirical performance of the bootstrap and analytic methods. Results indicated that with both normal and non-normal data, the bootstrap standard error and confidence interval were generally accurate across simulation conditions (restricted sample size, selection ratio, and population correlations) and outperformed estimates of the analytic method. However, with certain combinations of distribution type and model conditions, the analytic method has an advantage, offering reasonable estimates of the standard error and confidence interval without resorting to the bootstrap procedure's computer-intensive approach. We provide SAS code for the simulation studies.     

Measuring the flashbulb-like nature of memories for private events: the flashbulb memory checklist

What do we remember following an emotionally charged event? The assessment of memory characteristics for an emotional event represents one of the most challenging issues in the domain of autobiographical memory. Literature of flashbulb memories (FBMs) provides a crucial contribution on this issue: Following an emotional and unexpected public event, people remember not only central details of the episode, but also irrelevant, peripheral and idiosyncratic details of the reception context in which they learned of the news. The present study was set up to assess the factorial structure (samples 1 and 2) and convergent validity (sample 2) of an FBM checklist, an instrument designed to measure Flashbulb-like features of memories for emotional private events. Factorial analyses account for an oblique two-factor solution – FBM Specificity and Confidence – while correlational analyses support the convergent validity of this instrument. Practical implications are discussed, especially for the credibility assessment of witnesses of emotional events in forensic settings.     

Reducing the Negative Effect of the Retention Interval on the Composite Face Recognition

Our memories are quite fragile. We sometimes recognize something unseen as something seen before. This error often causes serious problems, such as the misidentification of composite faces in a criminal investigation. In such a scene, people occasionally claim to have seen a face that is actually a composite face consisting of facial parts separately seen before; this error is called the memory conjunction error. Although the likelihood of the memory conjunction error increases over time, previous studies suggest that it could be suppressed by the number of response options, which are expected to affect the criterion for the “Old” response. Our results show that the presence of three response options reduced the memory conjunction error. Additionally, providing information about the existence of composite faces affected the sensitivity for detecting old faces, whereas three response options affected the criterion. This study might contribute to the improvement of procedures for eyewitness testimony.     

延迟间隔和提取条件对短时错误记忆的影响

采用短时DRM迫选任务,探讨提取条件和延迟间隔对短时错误记忆的影响,以进一步考察短时错误记忆的产生机制。结果发现,短时错误记忆的产生主要源于提取时对存贮细节通达的缺失。在无有效提取线索的条件下,延迟间隔能够增加错误记忆率;而有效提取线索存在时,真实记忆痕迹的可通达性增加能够极大避免错误记忆的产生,延迟间隔的作用则不显著。该实验的结果是对错误记忆理论解释的一种补充。     

‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Human choice under uncertainty is influenced by erroneous beliefs about randomness. In simple binary choice tasks, such as red/black predictions in roulette, long outcome runs (e.g. red, red, red) typically increase the tendency to predict the other outcome (i.e. black), an effect labeled the “gambler's fallacy.” In these settings, participants may also attend to streaks in their predictive performance. Winning and losing streaks are thought to affect decision confidence, although prior work indicates conflicting directions. Over three laboratory experiments involving red/black predictions in a sequential roulette task, we sought to identify the effects of outcome runs and winning/losing streaks upon color predictions, decision confidence and betting behavior. Experiments 1 (n = 40) and 3 (n = 40) obtained trial‐by‐trial confidence ratings, with a win/no win payoff and a no loss/loss payoff, respectively. Experiment 2 (n = 39) obtained a trial‐by‐trial bet amount on an equivalent scale. In each experiment, the gambler's fallacy was observed on choice behavior after color runs and, in experiment 2, on betting behavior after color runs. Feedback streaks exerted no reliable influence on confidence ratings, in either payoff condition. Betting behavior, on the other hand, increased as a function of losing streaks. The increase in betting on losing streaks is interpreted as a manifestation of loss chasing; these data help clarify the psychological mechanisms underlying loss chasing and caution against the use of betting measures (“post‐decision wagering”) as a straightforward index of decision confidence. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Confidence in accuracy moderates the benefits of retrieval practice

ABSTRACT

The effect of Retrieval Practice refers to the phenomenon that taking a practice test is more effective for learning than re-study, probably due to the benefit from processes underlying successful retrievals during practice. However, it is rarely studied whether other processes (e.g., metacognitive monitoring) during retrieval practice may also play an important role. In two experiments, we examined whether the effectiveness of retrieval was affected by subjects’ confidence in their retrieval success. Subjects studied word-pairs and rated their confidence after each practice test trial (cued-recall in Exp.1, multiple choice in Exp.2), or re-study trial. In both experiments, we observed the classic retrieval practice effect. Moreover, in Exp.2, the benefits differed as a function of subjects’ confidence in their retrieval performance: the effect of retrieval practice only emerged for high-confidence trials with higher than 56% confidence. In summary, the retrieval practice only facilitates the retention of correct answers with high confidence.     

无意识情绪对建议接受的影响

以101名大学生为被试,用掩蔽刺激启动无意识情绪,探讨无意识情绪对建议接受程度的影响,并分析自信度在其中的作用.结果表明:(1)相较于中性情绪,无意识正性情绪或无意识负性情绪会使个体更倾向于采纳他人建议,且无意识负性情绪的作用更明显;(2)个体的自信度水平在情绪和建议接受度之间具有调节作用;(3)在接受建议后,无意识负性情绪和无意识正性情绪组个体的自信度提升量高于中性情绪组,且无意识负性情绪组提高更多.     

Resource depletion does not influence prospective memory in college students

This paper reports an experiment designed to investigate the potential influence of prior acts of self-control on subsequent prospective memory performance. College undergraduates (n = 146) performed either a cognitively depleting initial task (e.g., mostly incongruent Stroop task) or a less resource-consuming version of that task (e.g., all congruent Stroop task). Subsequently, participants completed a prospective memory task that required attentionally demanding monitoring processes. The results demonstrated that prior acts of self-control do not impair the ability to execute a future intention in college-aged adults. We conceptually replicated these results in three additional depletion and prospective memory experiments. This research extends a growing number of studies demonstrating the boundary conditions of the resource depletion effect in cognitive tasks.     

Decision Strategies and the Confidence–Accuracy Relationship in Face Recognition

The decision strategy used to select a choice set from an array of alternative options is known to affect the composition of the final choice set. Specifically, individuals incorporate more answers into their choice set when it is created by eliminating implausible items than when the set is created through the inclusion of plausible options. This difference is accounted for in a decision framework that posits a general reluctance to change the status quo (i.e., actively include or exclude an item). We extended this work to investigate, not only the decisions themselves, but also metacognitive judgments (i.e., confidence in the accuracy of the choice set). In two face recognition experiments, we tested the impact of decision strategy (Experiment 1) and confidence judgment strategy (Experiment 2) on the confidence–accuracy relationship. In Experiment 1, participants completed two blocks of recognition trials, one under inclusion (marking previously seen faces) and one under elimination (marking previously unseen faces) instructions. We observed superior resolution (i.e., discrimination between correct and incorrect) for inclusion trials, but only when they were completed prior to use of the elimination strategy. In Experiment 2, all participants completed face recognition trials under inclusion instructions, but we manipulated the strategy used to assess confidence. Again, we observed a significant impact of strategy on confidence–accuracy resolution. Thus, we observed that both the strategy employed to reach a decision and that employed to assess confidence affected the confidence–accuracy relationship. We discuss theoretical and applied (particularly for eyewitness identification and multiple‐choice testing) implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.