Does temporal contiguity moderate contingency learning in a speeded performance task?

In four experiments, we varied the time between the onset of distracting nonwords and target colour words in a word–word version of the colour–word contingency learning paradigm. Contingencies were created by pairing a distractor nonword more often with one target colour word than with other colour words. A contingency effect corresponds to faster responses to the target colour word on high-contingency trials (i.e., distractor nonword followed by the target colour word with which it appears most often) than on low-contingency trials (i.e., distractor nonword followed by a target colour word with which it appears only occasionally). Roughly equivalent-sized contingency effects were found at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 50, 250, and 450 ms in Experiment 1, and 50, 500, and 1,000 ms in Experiment 2. In Experiment 3, a contingency effect was observed at SOAs of –50, –200, and –350 ms. In Experiment 4, interstimulus interval (ISI) was varied along with SOA, and learning was equivalent for 200-, 700-, and 1,200-ms SOAs. Together, these experiments suggest that the distracting stimulus does not need to be presented in close temporal contiguity with the response to induce learning. Relations to past research on causal judgement and implications for further contingency learning research are discussed.     

Mnemonic benefits of retrieval practice at short retention intervals

The testing effect refers to the retention benefit conferred by prior retrieval of information from memory. Although the testing effect is a robust phenomenon, a common assumption is that reliable memory benefits only emerge after long retention intervals of days or weeks. The present study focused on potential test-induced retention benefits for brief retention intervals on the order of minutes and tens of seconds. Participants in four experiments studied lists of words. Some of the items were subjected to an initial cued recall test, and others were re-presented for additional study. Free recall tests were administered in each experiment following retention intervals ranging from 30 s to 8 min. When initial retrieval practice was successful (Experiments 1 through 3), or feedback compensated for unsuccessful retrieval (Experiment 4), significant testing effects emerged at all retention intervals. Results are discussed in the context of a bifurcated item-distribution model and highlight the importance of initial test performance and the type of analysis employed when examining testing effect data.     

The Role of Individual Differences in the Accuracy of Confidence Judgments

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in under-confidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.     

An Event History Analysis of First-Term Soldier Attrition

The study of attrition has largely focused on identifying demographic or biographic characteristics that predict whether soldiers complete their enlistment term. As a result, much is known about who attrites. Less is known about why soldiers attrite. This research assessed the influence of two psychological factors on U.S. Army soldier attrition: self-reported confidence that one could complete one’s term of service and ambivalence regarding the decision to enlist. The study sample consisted of first-term enlisted soldiers (N = 14,808) who were respondents to Army surveys. Results of fitting three longitudinal models indicated that confidence in being able to complete one’s term of obligation was more predictive of attrition for those reporting greater ambivalence regarding the decision to enlist. This effect was significant throughout a 3-year period. This work adds to our understanding of attrition by highlighting the role of confidence and ambivalence. Implications for strategies to reduce attrition are discussed.     

Measures of dynamic stability: Detecting differences between walking overground and on a compliant surface

Numerous measures of dynamic stability have been proposed to gauge fall risk in the elderly, including stride interval variability and variability of the center of mass. However, these measures have been deemed inadequate because they do not take into account temporal information. Therefore, research on the measurement of dynamic stability has turned to other analysis methods such as stride interval dynamics and the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Stride interval dynamics reflect the statistical persistence of an individual’s stride interval time series and the Lyapunov exponent quantifies local dynamic stability – the sensitivity of the system to infinitesimal perturbations. In this study, we compare the ability of these measurement tools to detect changes between overground and compliant-surface walking, a condition known to affect stability, to determine their aptness as measures of dynamic stability. Fourteen able-bodied participants completed three 15 min walks, two overground and one on a compliant surface. Our results show that the Lyapunov exponent may be more sensitive to gait changes than stride interval dynamics and gait variability measures.     

CDF‐quantile distributions for modelling random variables on the unit interval

This paper introduces a two‐parameter family of distributions for modelling random variables on the (0,1) interval by applying the cumulative distribution function of one ‘parent’ distribution to the quantile function of another. Family members have explicit probability density functions, cumulative distribution functions and quantiles in a location parameter and a dispersion parameter. They capture a wide variety of shapes that the beta and Kumaraswamy distributions cannot. They are amenable to likelihood inference, and enable a wide variety of quantile regression models, with predictors for both the location and dispersion parameters. We demonstrate their applicability to psychological research problems and their utility in modelling real data.     

How Incidental Confidence Influences Self‐Interested Behaviors: A Double‐Edged Sword

The present research investigates how incidental confidence influences self‐interested behaviors. It is well established that being in a psychological state of lower confidence causes people to experience psychological aversion that they are motivated to reduce. We study the transfer effect of confidence; people strive to compensate for lower confidence in one domain by obtaining higher status in other unrelated domains. Prior research has linked money with status and suggested that money can increase confidence. Building on this research, we proposed and showed in four experiments that lower incidental confidence increased self‐interested behaviors that brought financial gains. Drawing on research on competitive altruism, we also predicted and found that when altruism, rather than money, was seen as the primary source of status, the effect of incidental confidence reversed such that lower incidental confidence decreased self‐interested behaviors. Data ruled out alternative explanations and provided consistent evidence for the proposed compensatory mechanism. We also discussed theoretical and practical implications of the present research. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Action Phases and Goal Setting: Being Optimistic After Decision Making Without Getting into Trouble

According to Gollwitzer's mindset theory, people in postdecisional action phases, who are about to implement a chosen action or goal, are supposed to be more optimistic than people in predecisional action phases, who are deliberating on different actions or goals (P. M. Gollwitzer, 1990). The present experiments were designed to test the hypothesis that postdecisional people are optimistic in a way that does not set them up for failure and disappointment. In three experiments it is shown that people who are in an implemental mindset neither set more demanding goals than do deliberative people nor do they inflate their performance predictions. Instead, they are more confident in reaching their goals and more cautious when predicting future performance. This behavior is interpreted in terms of a strategy that allows people to hold optimistic beliefs without facing the danger of exaggerated goal setting or a disconfirmation of their beliefs.