心理学实验的可重复性

严格意义的实验可重复性指的是实验控制条件不变的情况下其结果的可重复性,置信区间是表示这种可重复性的恰当方法,可重复性的提高可通过在实验设计和数据分析中将影响因变量的随机额外变量作为协变量引入来实现;另一种意义的可重复性指的是实验结果的可迁移性,它涉及当控制条件变化时因控制变量和自变量的交互作用而导致的实验结果的变化。在这两种意义下,心理学实验较低的可重复性都源于它的额外变量的庞杂。     

Back to the basics: Rethinking partial correlation network methodology

The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) is an increasingly popular technique used in psychology to characterize relationships among observed variables. These relationships are represented as elements in the precision matrix. Standardizing the precision matrix and reversing the sign yields corresponding partial correlations that imply pairwise dependencies in which the effects of all other variables have been controlled for. The graphical lasso (glasso) has emerged as the default estimation method, which uses ℓ₁-based regularization. The glasso was developed and optimized for high-dimensional settings where the number of variables (p) exceeds the number of observations (n), which is uncommon in psychological applications. Here we propose to go ‘back to the basics’, wherein the precision matrix is first estimated with non-regularized maximum likelihood and then Fisher Z transformed confidence intervals are used to determine non-zero relationships. We first show the exact correspondence between the confidence level and specificity, which is due to 1 minus specificity denoting the false positive rate (i.e., α). With simulations in low-dimensional settings (p ≪ n), we then demonstrate superior performance compared to the glasso for detecting the non-zero effects. Further, our results indicate that the glasso is inconsistent for the purpose of model selection and does not control the false discovery rate, whereas the proposed method converges on the true model and directly controls error rates. We end by discussing implications for estimating GGMs in psychology.     

The counterintuitive impact of responses and response times on parameter estimates in the drift diffusion model

Given a drift diffusion model with unknown drift and boundary parameters, we analyse the behaviour of maximum likelihood estimates with respect to changes of responses and response times. It is shown analytically that a single fast response time can dominate the estimation in that no matter how many correct answers a test taker provides, the estimate of the drift (ability) parameter decreases to zero. In addition, it is shown that although higher drift rates imply shorter response times, the reverse implication does not hold for the estimates: shorter response times can decrease the drift rate estimate. In the light of these analytical results, we illustrate the actual impact of the findings in a small simulation for a mental rotation test. The method of analysis outlined is applicable to a broader range of models, and we emphasize the need to further check currently used reaction time models within this framework.     

Anomalous Evidence,Confidence Change,and Theory Change

A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if “dose size” made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.     

Continuity of phenomenology and (in)consistency of content of meaningful autobiographical memories

Phenomenology is a critical component of autobiographical memory retrieval; it reflects both (a) memory-specific features and (b) stable individual differences. Few studies have tested phenomenology longitudinally. The present work examined the continuity of memory phenomenology in a sample of Italians adults (N = 105) over a 4-week period. Participants retrieved two ‘key’ personal memories, a Turning Point and an Early Childhood Memory, rated the phenomenology of each memory, and completed measures of personality, psychological distress and subjective well-being. Phenomenological ratings were moderately stable over time (median correlation >.40), regardless of memory content. Personality traits, psychological distress and well-being were associated with phenomenology cross-sectionally and with changes in phenomenology over time. These results suggest that how individuals re-experience their most important personal memories is relatively consistent over time and shaped by both trait and state aspects of psychological functioning.     

Social influence on metacognitive evaluations: The power of nonverbal cues

Metacognitive evaluations refer to the processes by which people assess their own cognitive operations with respect to their current goal. Little is known about whether this process is susceptible to social influence. Here we investigate whether nonverbal social signals spontaneously influence metacognitive evaluations. Participants performed a two-alternative forced-choice task, which was followed by a face randomly gazing towards or away from the response chosen by the participant. Participants then provided a metacognitive evaluation of their response by rating their confidence in their answer. In Experiment 1, the participants were told that the gaze direction was irrelevant to the task purpose and were advised to ignore it. The results revealed an effect of implicit social information on confidence ratings even though the gaze direction was random and therefore unreliable for task purposes. In addition, nonsocial cues (car) did not elicit this effect. In Experiment 2, the participants were led to believe that cue direction (face or car) reflected a previous participant's response to the same question—that is, the social information provided by the cue was made explicit, yet still objectively unreliable for the task. The results showed a similar social influence on confidence ratings, observed with both cues (car and face) but with an increased magnitude relative to Experiment 1. We additionally showed in Experiment 2 that social information impaired metacognitive accuracy. Together our results strongly suggest an involuntary susceptibility of metacognitive evaluations to nonverbal social information, even when it is implicit (Experiment 1) and unreliable (Experiments 1 and 2).     

Planning for driving retirement: The effect of driving perceptions,driving events,and assessment of driving alternatives

Most older adults will eventually stop driving, but few engage in planning for driving retirement. This study assessed whether driving stress, enjoyment, confidence, concerning driving events, and assessment of driving alternatives influence planning. Demographic factors were also included. Data were collected via a mailed transportation survey, with a final sample of 551 older adults who currently drive. Linear regression analyses revealed that more driving retirement planning was associated with greater driving stress, less driving confidence, and a more positive view of driving alternatives. Driving enjoyment and recent concerning driving events were not significantly related. Among the control variables, race and income were significantly related to planning, suggesting that lower income and identifying as Black race were associated with more planning. Gender only approached significance, suggesting that females may plan more than males. Overall, these findings suggest that more driving retirement planning is warranted. Some of the groups known to be at increased risk for driving reduction and cessation plan more for that eventuality than their counterparts. Implications of the study and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Hazard function effects on promoting self-control in variable interval time-based interventions in rats

The present experiments investigated properties of time-based interventions used to increase self-control. Rats received impulsive-choice assessments before and after interventions that consisted of different distributions of delays to reinforcement. In Experiment 1, rats received an intervention with an increasing hazard function where delays were more evenly distributed, a decreasing hazard function where delays were mostly short, or a constant hazard function where delays were exponentially distributed. Surprisingly, rats that received the decreasing hazard function made the most self-controlled choices. Response rates during intervention trials showed that rats anticipated reinforcement based on the shape of the distributions they received. In Experiment 2, rats received an intervention with a decreasing hazard function with a steep slope or a shallow slope. Both time-based interventions increased self-control and produced similar response-rate patterns, indicating that the slope of the decreasing hazard function may not play a strong role in intervention efficacy. While this research aligns with previous literature showing that time-based interventions improved self-control, exposure to short delays produced the biggest improvements. Ultimately, exposure to short delays may increase the subjective value of the larger–later choice while occasional long delays may promote the ability to wait, which may have important implications for translational applications.