On the evaluation of one-sided evidence

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one-sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.     

Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation

Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long-term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects (N=186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.     

When is the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney procedure a test of location? Implications for effect-size measures

The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney procedure is invariant under monotone transformations but its use as a test of location or shift is said not to be so. It tests location only under the shift model, the assumption of parallel cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). We show that infinitely many monotone transformations of the measured variable produce parallel cdfs, so long as the original cdfs intersect nowhere or everywhere. Thus there are infinitely many effect sizes measured as shifts of medians, invalidating the notion that there is one true shift parameter and thereby rendering any single estimate dubious. Measuring effect size using the probability of superiority alleviates this difficulty.     

Interval estimation for linear functions of medians in within-subjects and mixed designs

The currently available distribution-free confidence interval for a difference of medians in a within-subjects design requires an unrealistic assumption of identical distribution shapes. A confidence interval for a general linear function of medians is proposed for within-subjects designs that do not assume identical distribution shapes. The proposed method can be combined with a method for linear functions of independent medians to provide a confidence interval for a linear function of medians in mixed designs. Simulation results show that the proposed methods have good small-sample properties under a wide range of conditions. The proposed methods are illustrated with examples, and R functions that implement the new methods are provided.     

Toward law–gospel harmony in Lutheran theology and ethics

Lutheran antipathy toward the law is harmful to Christian ethics. This antipathy arises from the false notion that law and gospel are opposed. However, the Lutheran Confessions show that law–gospel distinction does not necessarily imply law–gospel opposition. When law and gospel are properly defined, they interrelate harmoniously within a multiperspectival model of Christian ethics. Moreover, the third use of the law then emerges as the basic and primary use.     

Relationships Among Emerging Adult Psychological Problems,Maltreatment, and Parental Psychopathology: Moderation by Parent–Child Relationship Quality

Current research supports clear relationships between parental psychopathology, parental maltreatment, and emerging adult child psychopathology. Less research has examined how the role of the parent–child relationship influences these existing associations. The current study tested two models that examined the moderating effect of parent–child relationship quality on parental psychopathology and emerging adult mental health as well as the effect on parental maltreatment and emerging adult mental health. It was expected that high parent–child relationship quality would buffer against the negative effects of parental psychopathology and maltreatment while enhancing the effects of functional parenting characteristics. Participants included 1,452 emerging adults, predominantly Caucasian (73.3%) college students who completed surveys on their mental health, recent experienced maltreatment, and their parents’ mental health problems. Results suggested lowest rates of mental health problems for emerging adults were associated with higher parent–child relationship quality and lower parental psychological problems, whereas negative outcomes were associated with higher parental psychopathology, regardless of parent–child relationship quality. Additionally, physical maltreatment was associated with lower rates of mental health concerns in the context of higher mother-daughter relationship quality. Results emphasize the continuing impact of the parent–child relationship, particularly the mother-daughter relationship, on emerging adults’ mental health. Moreover, the current study demonstrates the continuing influence of parents on their emerging adult children.     

Crafting Mosaics: Person-Centered Religious Influence and Selection in Adolescent Friendships

This research addresses the intersection of two key domains of adolescents’ lives: religion and peer networks. Religion scholars argue that religion is multi-faceted and better understood by focusing on combinations of indicators (i.e., mosaics), versus a variable-centered approach. We adopt this framework and investigate the interplay between religion and peer networks, both in how religious mosaics are shaped by friends and how religious profiles affect friend selection dynamics. With data from two schools in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we estimate religious mosaics using latent class analysis (LCA) to identify profiles consisting of combinations of commonly available survey-based measures of religious attitudes, behaviors, and identities. Finding evidence of theoretically expected profiles, we then use stochastic actor–based models (SABMs) to investigate network dynamics for these LCA-based religious profiles. We demonstrate how the profile data can be integrated within the SABM framework to evaluate processes of friend selection and influence. Results show evidence of adolescents influencing one another's religious mosaics, but not selecting friends on that basis.     

Assessment to identify learner-specific prompt and prompt-fading procedures for children with autism spectrum disorder

Few studies have evaluated the use of assessment to identify the most efficient instructional practices for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. This is problematic as these individuals often have difficulty acquiring skills, and the procedures that may be efficient with one individual may not be for others. The experimenters conducted instructional assessments to identify the most efficient prompt type (model, partial physical, full physical) and prompt-fading procedure (progressive delay, most-to-least, least-to-most) for teaching auditory–visual conditional discriminations for individuals with autism spectrum disorder. Each assessment was conducted at least twice, and a final generality test combined the most and the least efficient prompt type and prompt-fading procedure for teaching novel auditory–visual conditional discriminations. The results demonstrated learner-specific outcomes for the prompt type assessment, whereas the least-to-most prompt fading procedure was most efficient for all participants.     

Creators and Presses: The Person–Situation Interaction in Negative Creativity

Given the recent emphasis on exploring valence in creative behavior, this study examines negative creativity via a person–situation interactionist perspective. By manipulating goal valence (uses or misuses) and object valence (positive or negative), four conditions of an adapted Divergent Thinking task were used to predict positive and negative creativity. Participants (N = 178, 103 females, M_age = 23.82, SD = 4.03, range: 18–38) responded to a single condition along with the Big Five and Dark Triad personality scales in a between-groups design. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that goal and object valence significantly explained variance in valences of creative responses, beyond individual differences of personality. Furthermore, the congruence between goal and object valence predicted valenced creativity; that is, the positive objects and goals condition yielded more positive-original ideas, and the negative objects and goals condition yielded more negative-original ones. Object valence alone (material presses) did not contribute significantly to explaining valenced creativity. Negative-original responses were inversely related to conscientiousness, and directly to intellect/imagination and secondary psychopathy. Thus, negative creativity was attributed relatively more to person as compared to situation variables. Results are discussed from a valence-based and interactionist perspective.