初中生亲子关系与抑郁:自尊和情绪弹性的中介作用

基于生态系统理论和认知易感性模型,本研究拟探讨初中生亲子关系对抑郁的影响及作用机制,采用问卷法对813名初中生进行调查。结果表明：（1）亲子关系、自尊、情绪弹性与抑郁之间呈两两显著相关,且亲子关系能显著负向预测抑郁;（2）自尊和情绪弹性在亲子关系与抑郁之间起显著的中介作用,具体包括三条路径：一是自尊的单独中介作用;二是情绪弹性的单独中介作用;三是自尊和情绪弹性的序列中介作用。本研究揭示了初中生亲子关系通过内在心理因素对抑郁水平产生影响的作用机制,为进一步提升初中生的心理健康提供了指导性建议。     

Is it acceptable for a physician to break confidentiality in the case of sexually transmitted diseases? A mapping of young Kuwaiti's views

IntroductionConfidentiality is essential for the establishment of trust between physicians and their patients.ObjectivesThe circumstances under which it is acceptable to young Kuwaiti for a physician to break confidentiality to protect the spouse of a patient with a sexually transmitted disease (STD) were examined.MethodA sample of 263 young Kuwaiti indicated the acceptability of breaking confidentiality in 48 scenarios that were all possible combinations of five factors: disease severity, time taken by the physician to discuss with the patient, the patient's intent to inform the spouse about the disease, the patient's intent to adopt protective behaviors, and the decision to seek the advice of an expert in infectious diseases before breaking confidentiality.ResultsThrough cluster analysis, four qualitatively different positions were found: Quite never acceptable (6% of the sample, mostly males), Depends on husband's willingness to inform (3%), Depends on husband's protective behavior (29%, mostly females), and Quite always acceptable (32%). The remaining participants did not express any clear view.ConclusionIn Kuwait, students’ trust in the medical profession is, therefore, not likely to be seriously undermined if, from time to time, and in well-specified cases, individual physicians decide to break confidentiality when facing dilemmas of the kind examined in the current study.     

Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation

Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long-term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects (N=186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.     

On the evaluation of one-sided evidence

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one-sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called ‘jurors’) saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.     

When is the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney procedure a test of location? Implications for effect-size measures

The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney procedure is invariant under monotone transformations but its use as a test of location or shift is said not to be so. It tests location only under the shift model, the assumption of parallel cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). We show that infinitely many monotone transformations of the measured variable produce parallel cdfs, so long as the original cdfs intersect nowhere or everywhere. Thus there are infinitely many effect sizes measured as shifts of medians, invalidating the notion that there is one true shift parameter and thereby rendering any single estimate dubious. Measuring effect size using the probability of superiority alleviates this difficulty.     

Interval estimation for linear functions of medians in within-subjects and mixed designs

The currently available distribution-free confidence interval for a difference of medians in a within-subjects design requires an unrealistic assumption of identical distribution shapes. A confidence interval for a general linear function of medians is proposed for within-subjects designs that do not assume identical distribution shapes. The proposed method can be combined with a method for linear functions of independent medians to provide a confidence interval for a linear function of medians in mixed designs. Simulation results show that the proposed methods have good small-sample properties under a wide range of conditions. The proposed methods are illustrated with examples, and R functions that implement the new methods are provided.     

Parents’ postnatal depressive symptoms and their children's academic attainment at 16 years: Pathways of risk transmission

The aim of the study was to examine whether parents’ increased postnatal depressive symptoms predicted children's academic attainment over time and whether the parent–child relationship, children's prior academic attainment, and mental health mediated this association. We conducted secondary analyses on the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children data (12,607 mothers, 9,456 fathers). Each parent completed the Edinburgh-Postnatal Depression Scale at 8 weeks after the child's birth (predictor) and a questionnaire about the mother–child and father–child relationship at 7 years and 1 month (mediator). The children's mental health problems were assessed with the teacher version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at 10–11 years (mediator). We used data on the children's academic attainment on UK Key Stage 1 (5–7 years; mediator) and Key Stage 4 (General Certificate of Secondary Education 16 years) (outcome). We adjusted for the parents’ education, and child gender and cognitive ability. The results revealed that parents’ depressive symptoms at 8 weeks predicted lower academic performance in children at 16 years. Mothers’ postnatal depressive symptoms had an indirect effect through children's mental health problems on academic outcomes at 16 years via negative mother–child relationship, and prior academic attainment. There was a significant negative indirect effect of fathers’ postnatal depressive symptoms on academic attainment at 16 years via negative father–child relationship on child mental health. The findings suggest that the family environment (parental mental health and parent–child relationship) and children's mental health should be potential targets for support programmes for children of depressed parents.