Individual and group advice taking in judgmental forecasting: Is group forecasting superior to individual forecasting?

We examined how individuals and groups behave in making judgmental forecasts when they are given external forecast advice. We compare individual and group advice-taking behavior under different conditions: (a) when advice quality is fixed, (b) when advice quality is randomly varied, and (c) when there is feedback on advice quality or not. Participants in Study 1 received fixed advice of either reasonable or unreasonable quality while making their decisions. Participants in Study 2 randomly received both reasonable and unreasonable advice. We found in both studies that groups feel more confident than individuals. This greater confidence decreased the groups' reliance on advice. We also found that groups are better than individuals at discerning the quality of advice. In the group treatment, the group's reliance on advice increased according to the degree of disagreement with the initial decisions of the group members. In Study 3, participants randomly received both reasonable and unreasonable advice, and in addition, they received feedback on actual realizations that enabled them to learn about the quality of advice. In the presence of feedback on random advice quality, groups are no longer less receptive to advice than individuals; with feedback, both individuals and groups discount advice more than they do without feedback. Nevertheless, groups are still better than individuals at discerning the quality of advice. We conclude that group forecasting is better than individual forecasting across various conditions that we investigate except when advice quality is known to be consistently reliable.     

Perspective taking in referring to objects behind versus in front of an observer: Frames of reference,intraindividual consistency,and response latencies

Speakers of English and German typically adopt the reflection variant of the relative frame of reference (FoR) in order to describe how nonoriented objects that are located in front of them are related to one another. Little is known, however, about how they proceed in dorsal settings, with objects located in their back. In this article, we explore the turn hypothesis, which assumes a (mental) 180° turn of the observer to face the objects, converting the dorsal into a frontal situation, so that the preferred FoR variant for frontal settings can be applied. To elicit spatial references, we used photographs that showed an observer and two objects either in the observer's visual field (frontal condition) or in the observer's back (dorsal condition). The observer was looking either in the same direction as the referencing individual (aligned perspectives) or in the opposite direction (vis-à-vis perspective). Data from two experiments show that while participants do adopt the observer's perspective, their references in dorsal settings are incompatible with the turn hypothesis. Analyses of response latencies indicate additional cognitive costs for establishing a FoR for the very first item in the dorsal condition as compared to the frontal condition, but fast adaption for subsequent items, and high intraindividual consistency in FoR choice in both conditions. Maintaining the assumption that references in dorsal settings should be compatible with the variant of the relative FoR adopted in frontal settings, participants’ references can be explained by assuming a backward projection that gets by without a (mental) turn of the observer.     

Effect of dispenser location on taking free condoms in an outpatient cocaine abuse treatment clinic

Crack cocaine use increases risky sexual behavior and HIV exposure; therefore, safe sexual practices should be encouraged during cocaine addiction treatment. Research indicates that placing condom dispensers in private restrooms increases taking free condoms. We investigated two other dispenser locations (a day room vs. counselors' offices) and found that substantially more condoms were taken when dispensers were in the day room. This is an important issue for public health facilities without private restrooms.     

Perelman's rhetorical foundation of philosophy

This article is a Gadamer-Perelman's debate. The author points out the limits of the gadamerian's hermeneutic conception of philosophy and criticizes this conception from Perelman's new rhetoric point of view. Instead of speaking of truth as an ontological originary experience, the rhetorical foundation of philosophy allows us to say that in philosophy the important is the contrastation and the confrontation of criteria and that, for that reason, philosophy is above all characterized by discussibility.Philosophical argumentation, like juridical argumentation, constitutes applications, to different domains, of a theory of argumentation which we consider as a new rhetoric.By identifying this theory with the general theory of persuasive speech, which seeks to obtain the intellectual as well as the emotional adherence of an audience, no matter which, we state that all speeches which do not aspire to an impersonal validity proceed from rhetoric. (Ch. Perelman,L'empire rhétorique, p. 177).But, if one does not admit that the philosophical thesis may be founded on evident intuitions, it will be necessary to reccur to argumentative technics to make them prevail. The new rhetoric then becomes the indispensable tool of philosophy. (Ch. Perelman,L'empire rhétorique, p. 21).     

Differential effects of trait anger on optimism and risk behaviour

It has been proposed that angry people exhibit optimistic risk estimates about future events and, consequently, are biased towards making risk-seeking choices. The goal of this study was to directly test the hypothesised effect of trait anger on optimism and risk-taking behaviour. One hundred healthy volunteers completed questionnaires about personality traits, optimism and risk behaviour. In addition their risk tendency was assessed with the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), which provides an online measure of risk behaviour. Our results partly confirmed the relation between trait anger and outcome expectations of future life events, but suggest that this optimism does not necessarily translate into actual risk-seeking behaviour.     

4岁儿童对他人记忆的评判与错误信念理解的关系

从观点采择的角度考察儿童对他人记忆的评判及其与错误信念理解的关系。与他人分享记忆时,个体需要同时处理自我与他人对过去的表征和看法;而要顺利完成错误信念任务,个体需要同时加工自我的真实信念与他人的错误信念。因此个体对他人记忆的评判能力可能会与其对错误信念的理解相关。40名4岁儿童完成一系列错误信念任务和评判他人记忆是否正确任务,情境包括视觉、意图解释和情绪解释。结果表明,控制年龄、语言和记忆能力等因素后,被试评判他人记忆的成绩仍然可以预测其对错误信念的理解。这些结果为幼儿在回忆叙述中谈及他人越多,其心理理论越好提供了进一步的证据和可能的解释     

Reappraisal and expected value modulate risk taking

Decision making is informed by appraisals of appetitive cues and their associated opportunities for rewards. Such appraisals can be modulated by cognitive regulation strategies in order to promote goal-directed choices. Little is known about how cognitive regulation strategies, especially reappraisal, alter risk taking during decision making. To characterise the effect of reappraisal on risk taking, we systematically varied both the goal of regulation and the value of the decision options. Participants engaged in two reappraisal strategies with opposite goals, to increase (“emphasise”) or decrease (“de-emphasise”) the importance of an upcoming decision, during the presentation of cues signalling monetary decisions. The expected value of taking a risk was systematically varied across decisions such that a risky choice could be beneficial or disadvantageous. Reappraisal strategies increased or decreased risk taking in accordance both with regulation goals and expected value information. These results suggest that reappraisal can be used to flexibly alter behaviour associated with appetitive cues while maintaining value information.     

Team Proactivity as a Linking Mechanism between Team Creative Efficacy,Transformational Leadership,and Risk‐Taking Norms and Team Creative Performance

Despite the growing body of research on creativity in team contexts, very few attempts have been made to explore the team‐level antecedents and the mediating processes of team creative performance on the basis of a theoretical framework. To address this gap, drawing on Paulus and Dzindolet's (2008) group creativity model, this study proposed team creative efficacy, transformational leadership, and risk‐taking norms as antecedents of team creative performance and team proactivity as an intervening mechanism between these relationships. The results of team‐level regression analyses conducted on the leaders and members of 103 Korean work teams showed that team creative efficacy and risk‐taking norms were positively associated with team creative performance. Furthermore, the relationships between team creative efficacy and team creative performance and between risk‐taking norms and team creative performance were mediated by team proactivity. These findings offer new insights regarding the antecedents and the mediator of creative performance in team contexts and important implications for theory and practice.     

自发性观点采择对宽恕不同程度人际伤害的影响

设计并采用“换位体验”的社会互动范式,结合自陈报告法和情感错误归因程序的内隐态度研究范式,通过2个实验比较了面对不同程度的人际伤害,自发性观点采择和语言劝说这两种不同的人际伤害消解方式分别对外显和内隐宽恕的影响。结果发现：无论面对何种程度的人际伤害,（1）与自发性观点采择相比,语言劝说可以有效的促进外显宽恕;（2）自发性观点采择可以有效减少负面内隐态度,促进内隐宽恕,而语言劝说会提高负面内隐态度,阻碍内隐宽恕。该研究结果说明不同人际伤害消解方式对内隐和外显宽恕的影响是不同的,同时也证明了观点采择可以在人际互动中自发产生,并且会对人际关系产生隐性影响。     

Predicting rape events: The influence of intimate partner violence history,condom use resistance,and heavy drinking

Sexual aggression perpetration is a public health epidemic, and burgeoning research aims to delineate risk factors for individuals who perpetrate completed rape. The current study investigated physical and psychological intimate partner violence (IPV) history, coercive condom use resistance (CUR), and heavy episodic drinking (HED) as prospective risk factors for rape perpetration. Young adult men (N = 430) ages 21–30 completed background measures as well as follow‐up assessments regarding rape events perpetrated over the course of 3 months. Negative binomial regression with log link function was utilized to examine whether these risk factors interacted to prospectively predict completed rape. There was a significant interaction between physical IPV and HED predicting completed rape; men with high HED and greater physical IPV histories perpetrated more completed rapes during follow‐up than men with low HED at the same level of physical IPV. Moreover, psychological IPV and coercive CUR interacted to predict completed rape such that men with high coercive CUR and greater psychological IPV histories perpetrated more completed rapes throughout the follow‐up period than men with low coercive CUR at the same level of psychological IPV. Findings suggest targets for intervention efforts and highlight the need to understand the topography of different forms of aggression perpetration.