Kaufmann on the Probabilities of Conditionals

Kaufmann has recently argued that the thesis according to which the probability of an indicative conditional equals the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent under certain specifiable circumstances deviates from intuition. He presents a method for calculating the probability of a conditional that does seem to give the intuitively correct result under those circumstances. However, the present paper shows that Kaufmann’s method is inconsistent in that it may lead one to assign different probabilities to a single conditional at the same time.     

公共领域中的集群效能研究述评

公共领域中的集群效能是指公众通过分享所在地区的公共信任和社会凝聚力, 从而对于共同努力实现所在地区特定目标的一种集体信念和预期。公共领域中的集群效能有其独特的测量方法和研究结论, 集群效能的相关前因变量可以分为社会认同、社会经济地位和社会参与, 集群效能的相关影响作用研究可以分为公共安全、政治行为、公共卫生三个领域内的研究。文章最后指出未来在公共领域中集群效能研究有必要加强作用机制、动态变化等方面的探讨。     

Ceteris Paribus Conditionals and Comparative Normalcy

Our understanding of subjunctive conditionals has been greatly enhanced through the use of possible world semantics and, more precisely, by the idea that they involve variably strict quantification over possible worlds. I propose to extend this treatment to ceteris paribus conditionals – that is, conditionals that incorporate a ceteris paribus or ‘other things being equal’ clause. Although such conditionals are commonly invoked in scientific theorising, they traditionally arouse suspicion and apprehensiveness amongst philosophers. By treating ceteris paribus conditionals as a species of variably strict conditional I hope to shed new light upon their content and their logic.     

基于非逻辑机制的条件推理模式：P—Q映射模型及其实证检验

研究结合数学分析方法,提出了基于非逻辑机制的条件推理模型：P-Q映射模型。并根据这个模型,对人们在不同命题类型奈件下的推理行为进行了预测。预测结果显示,当推理前提为LH和HL型命题时,基于P-Q映射模型的预测结果与基于条件概率模型的预测结果完全一致。但当推理前提为LL和HH型命题时,两种模型给出的预测结果存在差异。实验结果表明,当前提命题为LL和HH型命题时,被试的条件推理行为与P-Q映射模型的预言完全一致。     

The Relationship Between Adolescents’ Attitudes Toward Their Fathers and Loneliness: A Cross-Cultural Study

Loneliness can be regarded as an epidemic of modern society that is becoming increasingly problematic for millions of people. Adolescents are particularly susceptible to the development of this kind of emotional distress. Although many causes of loneliness can be identified, some researchers are of the opinion that it can also be attributed to unpleasant childhood experiences that result in unfulfilled needs relating to intimacy. In this research study, the relationship between loneliness and adolescents’ attitudes towards their fathers was investigated. In order to achieve this goal, information was gathered from 1068 South African respondents. Biographical questionnaires were administered and a Loneliness Scale was applied. In addition, adolescents’ attitudes towards their fathers were measured by means of a Fathers Questionnaire. Steps were taken to determine which of the independent variables, namely gender, age, race, language and socio-economic status, contributed significantly to the prediction of loneliness. In order to process the acquired information, a stepwise multiple regression analysis was conducted. The most important finding of this study is that adolescents’ attitudes towards their fathers comprise the most prominent predictor of loneliness during adolescence. The results also indicated that all of the independent variables had a statistically significant influence on loneliness.     

关于条件推理的ERP研究

以抽象的条件命题作为实验材料,测定13名大学生在完成MP、AC、DA、MT推理（推测判断任务）和基线任务（记忆判断任务）时的事件相关电位（ERP）,初步探讨不同推理类型的脑内时程动态变化。这是使用ERP技术来研究条件推理脑机制的初步尝试。结果发现,五种任务所诱发的ERP早成分均不存在显著差异,在头皮前部的左外侧额区和左颞区,MP与DA推理与基线任务相比,均诱发一个更明显的晚期正成分（450-1100ms）,在右外侧额区则诱发一个更明显的晚期负成分（450~1100ms）;与之相反,MT与AC推理与基线任务相比,在左侧诱发一个更明显的晚期负成分（450~1100ms）,在右侧诱发一个更明显的晚期正成分（450~1100ms）,这一结果可能是由于左右脑在推理中的认知功能以及四种推理类型之间存在的差异所致,同时也表明推测过程主要激活了左右侧的前额部、颞叶等区域,基本支持Goel等人的双加工理论     

注意负荷对内隐序列学习的影响研究

运用次级任务研究范式,采用符号计数的次级任务和歧义序列中的次级条件序列,将内隐序列学习分为单任务组和双任务组,统一在单任务条件下测试。结果发现:(1)两组被试内隐学习成绩差异不显著;(2)双任务组被试在学习组块和测试组块的内隐学习差异也不显著。结果进一步支持了在次级任务占用注意资源的条件下内隐学习仍然可以正常地获得、内隐序列学习不受注意负荷影响的观点。     

假言推理中的概率效应

近来Oaksford等人的研究表明,概率信息对假言推理的认知过程有着显著的影响,在一定程度上可以用它来解释和预测个体在推理中的行为反应。该文针对这种新的观点,就假言推理中所涉及的前后件概率信息、条件概率信息、连接概率信息、因果概率信息以及额外前提条件等对假言推理的影响分别做了简要的阐述,并介绍了一些相关的实验研究,最后作了总结和展望。     

Net Amount of Food Affects Autoshaped Response Rate, Response Latency, and Gape Amplitude in Pigeons

The contribution of net amount of food to conditioned response strength and topography was assessed in four pigeons under autoshaping contingencies. In each session, under one baseline phase and three replication phases, three trial types were presented sequentially: One conditioned stimulus (keylight) signaled one small pellet, another signaled one large pellet, and a third signaled seven small pellets which were weight-matched to one large pellet. Five dependent variables were response rates and latencies based on the occurrence of both keyswitch closures and gapes (beak openings) and gape amplitudes. In result, net amount of food, not pellet diameter or number, affected all dependent variables. Notably, gape amplitudes elicited by the seven-small pellet keylights were larger than the gape amplutides elicited by the one-small pellet keylights even though the gape amplitudes elicited by both unconditioned stimuli (one or seven pellets) were equally small. This mismatch between conditioned and unconditioned responses is incompatible with stimulus substitution accounts but is compatible with an associative strength account. Furthermore, the changes in the dependent variables were most likely determined by Pavlovian and not by inadvertent operant contingencies. The findings demonstrate that an analysis of classical conditioning benefits from the inclusion of topographical measures.