解读不显著结果：基于500个实证研究的量化分析

不显著结果(如, p > 0.05)在心理学研究中十分常见, 且容易被误解为接受零假设的证据, 并可能导致分组匹配研究的错误推断或者忽视被小样本的不显著结果掩盖的真实效应。但国内目前尚无实证研究对不显著结果的普遍性及其解读进行调查。本研究调查500篇中文心理学实证研究, 统计其摘要中出现与不显著结果相关的阴性陈述的频率, 判断并统计基于阴性陈述的推断准确性, 并使用贝叶斯因子对不显著结果中包含t值的研究进行重新评估。结果表明, 36%的摘要提及不显著结果, 共包含236个阴性陈述。其中, 41%的阴性陈述对不显著结果的解读出现偏差(如, 解读为支持了零假设)。对包含t值的研究进行贝叶斯因子分析, 结果显示仅有5.1%的不显著结果可以提供强证据支持零假设(BF₀₁ > 10)。与先前对国际心理学期刊的调查结果相比(32%的摘要包含阴性陈述; 72%的阴性陈述对不显著结果的解读错误), 中文心理学期刊中报告不显著结果的比例更高, 且对不显著结果解读错误的比例更低。但国内研究者仍需进一步加强对不显著结果的认识, 推广适于评估不显著结果的统计方法。     

Misunderstandings and omissions in textbook accounts of effect sizes

There have been frequent attempts in psychology to reduce the reliance on null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) as the criterion for establishing the importance of results. Many authorities now recommend the reporting of effect sizes (ESs) as a supplement or alternative to NHST. However, there is extensive specialist literature highlighting problems associated with the use and interpretation of ESs. A review of the coverage of ESs in over 100 textbooks on statistical analysis in behavioural science revealed widespread neglect of ESs and the relevant critical issues that have widespread coverage in the more specialist literature. For example, many textbooks claim that ESs should be interpreted as a simple measure of the practical real-world importance of a result despite the fact that ESs are profoundly influenced by features of design and analysis strategy. We seek to highlight areas of misunderstanding about ESs found in the pedagogical literature in the light of the more specialist literature and make recommendations to researchers for the appropriate use and interpretation of ESs. This is critical as statistics textbooks have a crucial role in the education of researchers.     

A multi-modal approach to cognitive training and assistance in minimally invasive surgery

Minimally-invasive surgery (MIS) offers many benefits to patients, but is considerably more difficult to learn and perform than is open surgery. One main reason for the observed difficulty is attributable to the visuo-spatial challenges that arise in MIS, taxing the surgeons’ cognitive skills. In this contribution, we present a new approach that combines training and assistance as well as the visual and the auditory modality to help surgeons to overcome these challenges. To achieve this, our approach assumes two main components: An adaptive, individualized training component as well as a component that conveys spatial information through sound. The training component (a) specifically targets the visuo-spatial processes crucial for successful MIS performance and (b) trains surgeons in the use of the sound component. The second component is an auditory display based on a psychoacoustic sonification, which reduces and avoids some of the commonly experienced MIS challenges. Implementations of both components are described and their integration is discussed. Our approach and both of its components go beyond the current state of the art in important ways. The training component has been explicitly designed to target MIS-specific visuo-spatial skills and to allow for adaptive testing, promoting individualized learning. The auditory display is conveying spatial information in 3-D space. Our approach is the first that encompasses both training for improved mastery and reduction of cognitive challenges in MIS. This promises better tailoring of surgical skills and assistance to the needs and the capabilities of the surgeons and, thus, ultimately, increased patient safety and health.     

Fabry disease in genetic counseling practice: recommendations of the National Society of Genetic Counselors

The objective of this document is to provide health care professionals with recommendations for genetic counseling and testing of individuals with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of Fabry disease, with a family history of Fabry disease, and those identified as female carriers of Fabry disease. These recommendations are the opinions of a multicenter working group of genetic counselors, medical geneticists, and other health professionals with expertise in Fabry disease counseling, as well as an individual with Fabry disease who is a founder of a Fabry disease patient advocacy group in the United States. The recommendations are U.S. Preventive Task Force Class III, and they are based on clinical experience, a review of pertinent English-language articles, and reports of expert committees. This document reviews the genetics of Fabry disease, the indications for genetic testing and interpretation of results, psychosocial considerations, and references for professional and patient resources. These recommendations should not be construed as dictating an exclusive course of management, nor does use of such recommendations guarantee a particular outcome. The professional judgment of a healthcare provider, familiar with the facts and circumstances of a specific case, will always supersede these recommendations.     

The Process of Family Reconstruction after DNA Testing for Huntington Disease

The needs of families to reconstruct their relationships in response to the DNA testing for Huntington disease of one or more of their asymptomatic members are presented. Data were collected from family interviews with 18 families, and from their responses on a post interview questionnaire. Findings are that families need to (a) address unfinished business associated with the decision for testing; (b) bring family members, peripheral in the decision for testing, into the loop; (c) reorganize patterns of communication and roles altered by the testing and heal ruptures in family membership; and (d) revise family stories about illness to provide a meaning for HD and explain the test results in a way that leaves them with a sense of mastery. Findings suggest that families should be more involved in the initial decision for testing of a member and that protocols should be established to provide help for their ongoing adjustment.     

Genetic Counseling for Fragile X Syndrome: Updated Recommendations of the National Society of Genetic Counselors

These recommendations describe the minimum standard criteria for genetic counseling and testing of individuals and families with fragile X syndrome, as well as carriers and potential carriers of a fragile X mutation. The original guidelines (published in 2000) have been revised, replacing a stratified pre- and full mutation model of fragile X syndrome with one based on a continuum of gene effects across the full spectrum of FMR1 CGG trinucleotide repeat expansion. This document reviews the molecular genetics of fragile X syndrome, clinical phenotype (including the spectrum of premature ovarian failure and fragile X-associated tremor-ataxia syndrome), indications for genetic testing and interpretation of results, risks of transmission, family planning options, psychosocial issues, and references for professional and patient resources. These recommendations are the opinions of a multicenter working group of genetic counselors with expertise in fragile X syndrome genetic counseling, and they are based on clinical experience, review of pertinent English language articles, and reports of expert committees. These recommendations should not be construed as dictating an exclusive course of management, nor does use of such recommendations guarantee a particular outcome. The professional judgment of a health care provider, familiar with the facts and circumstances of a specific case, will always supersede these recommendations.     

Predictive Genetic Testing for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer: Psychological Distress and Illness Representations 1 Year Following Disclosure

This prospective study evaluates emotional functioning and illness representations in 68 unaffected women (34 carriers/34 noncarriers) 1 year after predictive testing for BRCA1/2 mutations when offered within a multidisciplinary approach. Carriers had higher subjective risk perception of breast cancer than noncarriers. Carriers who did not have prophylactic oophorectomy had the highest risk perception of ovarian cancer. No differences were found between carriers and noncarriers regarding perceived seriousness and perceived control of breast and ovarian cancer. Mean levels of distress were within normal ranges. Only few women showed an overall pattern of clinically elevated distress. Cancer-specific distress and state-anxiety significantly decreased in noncarriers from pre- to posttest while general distress remained about the same. There were no significant changes in distress in the group of carriers except for ovarian cancer distress which significantly decreased from pre- to posttest. Our study did not reveal adverse effects of predictive testing when offered in the context of a multidisciplinary approach.     

Evaluating the Impact of Genetic Counseling and Testing with Signal Detection Methods

One measure of the impact of genetic counseling and testing (GCT) is the extent to which it fosters behavioral change that is consistent with mutation status. We describe and illustrate how two different signal detection methods, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and recursive partitioning, can be used in this context to evaluate the impact of GCT. We analyzed real screening behavior data obtained in the 12 months following GCT for Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colon Cancer (HNPCC) using these two different signal detection approaches. Each approach demonstrated that GCT had an impact on behavioral outcomes, and was effective in fostering behavioral outcomes appropriate to mutation status. The ROC approach demonstrated that GCT was effective because mutation positive and mutation negative individuals could be distinguished on the basis of the number of recommended screening behaviors. The recursive partitioning approach demonstrated that GCT was effective because there were generally high rates of adherence to screening guidelines among subjects. The recursive partitioning technique also identified four subgroups of subjects, each with distinct characteristics, for which tailored interventions could be developed to increase rates of adherence to screening guidelines. Signal detection methods are easily implemented and are useful techniques for evaluating the impact of GCT.     

Using response times to detect aberrant responses in computerized adaptive testing

A lognormal model for response times is used to check response times for aberrances in examinee behavior on computerized adaptive tests. Both classical procedures and Bayesian posterior predictive checks are presented. For a fixed examinee, responses and response times are independent; checks based on response times offer thus information independent of the results of checks on response patterns. Empirical examples of the use of classical and Bayesian checks for detecting two different types of aberrances in response times are presented. The detection rates for the Bayesian checks outperformed those for the classical checks, but at the cost of higher false-alarm rates. A guideline for the choice between the two types of checks is offered.This study received funding from the Law School Admission Council (LSAC). The opinions and conclusions contained in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy and position of LSAC. The authors are most indebted to Wim M. M. Tielen for his computational assistance and to the US Defense Manpower Data Center for the permission to use the ASVAB data set in the empirical examples.