Learning from examples does not prevent order effects in belief revision

A common finding is that information order influences belief revision (e.g., Hogarth & Einhorn, 1992 Hogarth, R. M. and Einhorn, H. J. 1992. Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology, 24: 1–55. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We tested personal experience as a possible mitigator. In three experiments participants experienced the probabilistic relationship between pieces of information and object category through a series of trials where they assigned objects (planes) into one of two possible categories (hostile or commercial), given two sequentially presented pieces of probabilistic information (route and ID), and then they had to indicate their belief about the object category before feedback. The results generally confirm the predictions from the Hogarth and Einhorn model. Participants showed a recency effect in their belief revision. Extending previous model evaluations the results indicate that the model predictions also hold for classification decisions, and for pieces of information that vary in their diagnostic values. Personal experience does not appear to prevent order effects in classification decisions based on sequentially presented pieces of information and in belief revision.     

甲状腺腔镜手术与开放性手术的比较

通过探讨腔镜甲状腺手术与开放甲状腺手术之间的差异,正确选择手术方式,回顾分析2008年6月至2013年2月在我院的162例行腔镜甲状腺手术患者与162例行开放甲状腺手术患者,比较住院时间、住院费用、手术时间、术中出血量、引流管引流总量、引流管拔管时间及术后并发症情况.结果162例腔镜手术均成功完成,无一例中转开放手术,腔镜手术住院时间、住院费用、手术时间、术中出血量、引流管引流总量均较开放手术多,术后1例发生短暂性喉返神经麻痹,14例胸部皮肤感觉麻木.因此,开放与腔镜甲状腺手术都是安全可靠的,腔镜手术具有确切的美容效果,但不是首选术式,不应盲目扩大腔镜手术群体,把握腔镜手术对象,以患者实际情况为出发点,以开放手术为主,节约医疗资源.     

Predicting Burnout Among HIV/AIDS and Oncology Health Care Workers

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between repressive coping, controllability, self-esteem and comparative optimism for health-related events. Repressors (low trait anxiety-high defensiveness) compared with both (a) specific control groups on anxiety and defensiveness (e.g., low-anxious, high-anxious and defensive high anxious) and (b) total nonrepressors were significantly more comparatively optimistic for health-related events. Repressors remained significantly more comparatively optimistic than total nonrepressors when self-esteem was partialled out.

For individual events, repressors differed in comparative optimism for events which were rated as high controllability. It is concluded that repressors are exhibiting comparative optimism over and above nonrepressor groups for events which are rated as controllable. These results suggest that comparative optimism findings may be exaggerated by not controlling for the disproportionate influence of repressors in skewing sample means. Suggestions for future studies are discussed.     

A Psychogenic Study of Dark-Adaptation

Skin conductance responses (SCRs), heart rate (HR), and respiration were recorded in various rest, cold pressor (CP), and CP recovery phases in 20 former drug users (DG) and 20 control Ss (CG), matched on sex and age in a repeated measures design. With regard to the abused drugs (barbiturates and narcotic analgesics), the hypothesis was tested that autonomic responses are decreased after long-term use of barbiturates and narcotic analgesics. The results partially supported that hypothesis: (a) SCRs, HR change, and HR deceleration were significantly lower in DG compared to control Ss; (b) HR baseline, respiration rate, and amplitude, however, tended to be increased in DG in the rest and CP phases. A second hypothesis, addressed to different habituation rates of SCRs and HR in both groups, was confirmed for SCRs and partly for HR, indicating that the habituation rates of SCRs, HR change, and HR deceleration were greater in DG than in CG. A third question concerned the consistency of SCR and HR results in both sessions. A trend for consistent results was found as the direction of the group differences was the same in sessions 1 and 2. The CP results were compared with similar findings in the same Ss during visual and auditory stimulation.     

Jesus' Prophethood and Islam: Insights from the Risale‐i Nur

While Jesus’ prophethood is an indisputable component of his identity in the Christian tradition, it has been marginalized for centuries in favor of his identity as savior. In this article, I argue that an engagement with an understanding of Jesus’ prophethood in Islam, particularly as explicated by the Turkish thinker Bediüzzaman Said Nursi, can help Christians recover a more robust interpretation of Jesus as prophet that has a positive impact on a Christian articulation of the church and of discipleship today.     

The Religious Context of Welfare Attitudes

This article examines the influence of three dimensions of religion—belonging (faith tradition membership), behaving (frequency of service attendance), and context (one's relationship to aggregate population characteristics)—on attitudes toward multiple forms of state‐provided social protection, or welfare attitudes. To do so, this article uses data from 17 countries surveyed in the 2006 “Role of Government” wave of the International Social Survey Program (ISSP). Results from mixed effects regression show that contextual effects are highly predictive of welfare attitudes. Nations that are more religiously heterogeneous are less supportive of state protection, while nations that are more homogeneous, particularly Catholic nations, are more supportive. Results hold net of fractionalization, political institutional measures, and economic characteristics. At the individual level, all three dimensions of religiosity are predictive of welfare attitudes. These patterns suggest that in rich Western democracies, religion continues to play an important role in structuring the moral economies.     

Selling behaviours and sales performance: the moderating and mediating effects of interpersonal mentalizing

A random sample of independent insurance agents was surveyed to explore the relationships among learned behaviours, such as, adaptive selling and customer orientation and personal dispositions, such as, interpersonal mentalizing in predicting sales performance. The primary focus of this research was to reexamine salespeople's theory of mind in a broader theoretical base of human abilities. The results confirmed that the dimensions of interpersonal mentalizing, such as, taking a bird's-eye view, shaping the interaction by creating a positive ambience, detecting nonverbal cues and rapport building have different roles for the effectiveness of selling behaviours. While taking a bird's-eye view was a moderator, creating a positive ambience was a mediator of the relationship between selling behaviours and performance. Furthermore, salespeople's ability to build rapport improved sales performance only when they were able to detect nonverbal cues from customers. Taken together, these findings shed light on the complementary role of autonomous abilities of salespeople in improving the productivity of their learned selling behaviours. Several managerial implications were derived from the findings.     

Effect of salespeople's acquisition–retention trade-off on performance

This research examines the impact of the acquisition–retention resource allocation at the individual salesperson level – that is, the proportion of their time dedicated to acquisition versus retention activities – on their sales performance. We extend prior research that investigates the acquisition–retention trade-off below (i.e., customer value approach) or above (i.e., firm portfolio approach) the salesperson's perspective by also incorporating many ‘within-firm’ factors that are critical to capturing the contingent nature of the allocation decision. The results suggest that firms can double their sales gains by implementing a trade-off strategy that customizes the acquisition allocation at the salesperson level. Using matched triadic data gathered from 227 salespersons, 106 supervisors and the seller's database, the authors find an inverted U-shaped linkage between the proportion of time allocated to acquisition activities and sales performance. Moderation analyses show that salespeople's optimal acquisition allocation depends on their knowledge breadth and job commitment, their supervisor's experience and job commitment and the quantity and quality of the prospects in their relationship portfolio.     

数字化交互平台产品的客户体验旅程与投入关系

基于利益相关者营销、自反与身份演化、螺旋等理论,系统探讨企业如何在消费旅程中针对数字化交互平台(DIP)产品提供定制和丰富的客户体验以增加客户投入,进而与其他参与者共同创造价值。分别针对消费旅程中DIP产品参与者价值共创的连续性,DIP产品的客户体验旅程的结构与生成,DIP产品的客户体验旅程双元的张力及调和机理,DIP产品的客户投入的结构、管理与有效性,DIP产品的客户体验旅程和客户投入的相互关系等问题进行深入研究,为企业提出相应的实务性策略和建议。     

RELIGIOUS ETHICS AND EMPIRICAL ETHICS

In recent decades, cognitive and behavioral scientists have learned a great deal about how people think and behave. On the most general level, there is a basic consensus that many judgments, including ethical judgments, are made by intuitive, even unconscious, impulses. This basic insight has opened the door to a wide variety of more particular studies that investigate how judgments are influenced by group identity, self‐conception, emotions, perceptions of risk, and many other factors. When these forms of research engage ethical issues, they are sometimes called empirical ethics. This essay argues that the field of religious ethics would benefit from a more robust engagement with empirical ethics than it has thus far undertaken. In doing so, it offers a brief account of how issues of moral psychology and moral anthropology have been treated in religious ethics, and it highlights ways that the scientific findings challenge some prevailing norms in religious ethics. It ends by suggesting avenues by which religious ethics research could productively engage empirical ethics.