The “analysis of competing hypotheses” in intelligence analysis

The intelligence community uses “structured analytic techniques” to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)—a technique designed to reduce “confirmation bias.” Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts' judgement processes and conclusions were collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH‐trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH's ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgement inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful and to explore alternatives.     

Social intelligence and interview accuracy: Individual differences in the ability to construct interviews and rate accurately

This research examined differences in interviewers’ ability to identify effective interview questions and to accurately rate interviewees’ responses. Given the theoretical association between these interview activities and the construct of social intelligence (SI), a performance‐based measure of SI was developed utilizing situational judgment test methodology. The initial step was to examine evidence of the psychometric properties and construct validity of the new SI measure. The SI measure, a test of general mental ability (GMA), and a personality inventory were then used to examine aspects of rater performance. Participants chose a set of interview questions and viewed interviewee responses during a videotaped interview. Results showed that people higher in SI and GMA chose interview questions judged by experts to be superior and were more accurate in rating interviewee responses. The SI measure explained variance beyond GMA and outperformed a trait‐based SI measure. Implications for the selection and training of interviewers are discussed.     

Identity,representations, religion,and apologizing for past wrongdoings: Muslim discourse about Indonesia's 1965–66 massacres of communists

Since 1965, in Indonesia, people labelled as communists and their descendants have been mistreated. Recently, there has been an issue to apologize to them, but up until now, no official apology has been offered by the Indonesian government. The present study aims to understand how communism is perceived in Indonesia and why communism attributes labelled to a person can lead to negative effects, such as social exclusions. We interviewed 23 Muslims living in Jakarta (i.e., majority group) and used a thematic analysis to organize and describe the data. We found that Muslims who see communists as non‐believers view communist members as dangerous and a threat for the unity of the Republic of Indonesia. Among participants with such beliefs, the past maltreatments to accused communists are justified and legitimate; any apology toward the victims is considered not needed. The findings are discussed in the context of collective blaming and group essentialization, and ways to solve the problems are suggested.     

Examining the Contributions of Trait Emotional Intelligence on Addiction Counselor Burnout

The authors examined the contributions of emotional intelligence (EI) on burnout in addiction counselors. Results indicated that EI may act as a buffer against burnout, mitigating the impact of addiction counselor burnout. Recommendations are given for counselors, supervisors, and counselor training.     

智力水平与人格类型特征对高中生学业负担态度形成的影响

以829名高中生为对象,对“瑞文标准推理测验”、“加利福尼亚人格调查表”和“中学生学业负担态度量表”的测试数据进行聚类分析和F检验,探讨学生智力水平与人格类型特征对其学业负担态度形成的影响。结果显示,不同智力水平学生对待学业负担的态度无显著差异,但积极进取型学生与固执冲动型及消极退缩型学生间的差异显著。积极进取的人格类型特征有助于形成学生对待学业负担的积极态度,而消极人格类型特征导致学生对待学业负担更为消极的态度。     

The developmental/emergent model of archetype, its implications and its application to shamanism

This paper addresses the ongoing debate in the JAP to do with archetype theory and supports an emergent/developmental model which sees archetypal imagery as an emergent phenomenon arising out of neural bio-structures laid down in early infant life as a result of developmental experience. This model is supported by the current findings of those developmental biologists who adhere to Developmental Systems Theory. The themes of Developmental Systems Theory are examined and corroborative parallels are drawn with the model. A number of implications follows: the model has substantial explanatory power and leads to a new perspective on innatism; it implies an archetype-environment nexus; it collapses the nature-nurture debate in relation to archetype theory; it collapses the 'sacred heritage' approach to archetypes and it removes the conceptual division between the collective and personal unconscious. This developmental/emergent perspective is then applied to the shaman archetype, using ethnographic records of the Sakha (Yakut) Siberian tribe. The material supports the hypothesis that the shamanic complex is laid down in early infancy by a combination of events which cause emotional ruptures in the mother-infant dyad. Siberian shamanism is then understood to arise out of developmental experience and not from the constellation of an autochthonous archetype.     

Exploring racism

Whilst the concept of 'race' has no basis in genetics or biology, the dynamics of racism pervade all aspects of modern life--including the consulting room. In this paper the relationship between a white therapist and a black patient is explored through an unbidden thought and a verbal slip that occurred in the course of the therapy. The amplification and examination of these unwanted 'slips' are used to shed light on the subtleties of the effects of difference in colour on the relationship. It is argued here that the interaction reflects and illuminates the asymmetrical relationship between 'black' and 'white' in modern-western society. This is then considered using the concepts of the cultural unconscious and social unconscious as ways of understanding the tenacity of racism in ourselves.     

Adolescent outcomes of childhood conduct disorder among clinic-referred boys: predictors of improvement

Much remains to be learned about the adolescent outcomes of clinic-referred boys whose childhood conduct problems are serious enough to meet diagnostic criteria for conduct disorder (CD). Six structured diagnostic assessments were conducted over 7 years of 73 clinic-referred 7–12-year-old boys who met criteria for CD in Wave 1. There were substantial individual differences in the adolescent outcomes of CD, ranging from worsening to sustained recovery, with most boys showing persistent, but fluctuating levels of CD. Improvement in CD was not accounted for by treatment or incarceration, but more positive outcomes over Waves 2–7 were predicted prospectively with substantial accuracy, using a combination of baseline predictors: less initial severity of CD, fewer symptoms of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, higher child verbal intelligence, greater family socioeconomic advantage, and not having antisocial biological parents.     

Feelings in Moral Conflict and the Hazards of Emotional Intelligence

From some perspectives, it seems obvious that emotions and feelings must be both reasonable and morally significant: from others, it may seem as obvious that they cannot be. This paper seeks to advance discussion of ethical implications of the currently contested issue of the relationship of reason to feeling and emotion via reflection upon various examples of affectively charged moral dilemma. This discussion also proceeds by way of critical consideration of recent empirical enquiry into these issues in the literature of so-called emotional intelligence. In this regard, despite ambiguities in their accounts of the relationship of reason to emotion, advocates of emotional intelligence generally incline to therapeutic conceptions of emotional health which are not inconsistent with currently fashionable cognitivist accounts of feeling and emotion. All the same, it is arguable that therapeutic or other strategies which overplay the possibility of cognitive or other resolution of emotional conflict are prey to certain difficulties. First, they underemphasise those passive but identity-constitutive aspects of affect which are not obviously rationally accountable. Secondly, they insufficiently recognise the extent to which emotional conflicts can be significantly implicated in moral diversity. In view of either or both of these points, they may fail to appreciate the moral inappropriateness of attempts to resolve certain forms of emotional conflict or tension.