Patterns of Responding on a Balloon Analogue Task Reveal Individual Differences in Overall Risk-Taking: Choice Between Guaranteed and Uncertain Cash

ABSTRACT. We explored the utility of analyzing within- and between-balloon response patterns on a balloon analogue task (BAT) in relation to overall risk scores, and to a choice between a small guaranteed cash reward and an uncertain reward of the same expected value. Young adults (n = 61) played a BAT, and then were offered a choice between $5 in cash and betting to win $0 to $15. Between groups, pumping was differentially influenced by explosions and by the number of successive unexploded balloons, with risk takers responding increasingly on successive balloons after an explosion. Within-balloons, risk takers showed a characteristic pattern of constant high rate, while non-risk takers showed a characteristic variable lower rate. Overall, results show that the higher number of pumps and explosions that characterize risk takers at a molar level, result from particular forms of adaptation to the positive and negative outcomes of choices seen at a molecular level.

Color versions of one or more of the figures in the article can be found online at www.tandfonline.com/vgen.     

Children Use Temporal Cues to Learn Causal Directionality

The ability to learn the direction of causal relations is critical for understanding and acting in the world. We investigated how children learn causal directionality in situations in which the states of variables are temporally dependent (i.e., autocorrelated). In Experiment 1, children learned about causal direction by comparing the states of one variable before versus after an intervention on another variable. In Experiment 2, children reliably inferred causal directionality merely from observing how two variables change over time; they interpreted Y changing without a change in X as evidence that Y does not influence X. Both of these strategies make sense if one believes the variables to be temporally dependent. We discuss the implications of these results for interpreting previous findings. More broadly, given that many real‐world environments are characterized by temporal dependency, these results suggest strategies that children may use to learn the causal structure of their environments.     

The Effects of Prior Learned Strategies on Updating an Opponent's Strategy in the Rock,Paper, Scissors Game

To explore how model building adapts to changing environments, we had participants play “rock‐paper‐scissors” against a computer that played a frequency bias or a player‐dependent bias and then switched. Participants demonstrated their use of prior experience in how quickly they recognized and exploited changes in the computer's play strategy; in general, the more similar the strategies, the more efficient the updating. These findings inform our understanding of previously reported updating impairments in right‐brain damaged patients.     

Choice‐making,Expectations, and Treatment Positivity: How and When Choosing Shapes Aversive Experiences

Every day we use products and treatments with unknown but expected effects, such as using medication to manage pain. In many cases, we have a choice over which products or treatments to use; however, in other cases, people choose for us or choices are unavailable. Does choosing (versus not choosing) have implications for how a product or treatment is experienced? The current experiments examined the role of choice‐making in facilitating so‐called expectation assimilation effects—or situations in which a person's experiences (e.g., discomfort and pain) are evaluated in a manner consistent with their expectations. In Experiment 1, participants were initially exposed to a baseline set of aversive stimuli (i.e., sounds). Next, some participants were given expectations for two “treatments” (i.e., changes in screen display) that could ostensibly reduce discomfort. Critically, participants were either given a choice or not about which of the two treatments they preferred. Participants in a control condition were not provided with treatment expectations. Results revealed that discomfort experiences assimilated to expectations only when participants were provided with choice. Experiment 2 replicated this finding and provided evidence against the idea that demand characteristics and choice‐making unrelated to the core task (i.e., choices without associated expectations) could account for the results. Further, Experiment 2 showed that choosing reduced discomfort because of increased positivity about the treatment. Results are discussed in the context of extant research on choice‐making and expectation effects. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From ABLE to TAPAS: A New Generation of Personality Tests to Support Military Selection and Classification Decisions

This article discusses 3 modern forced-choice personality tests developed for the U.S Armed Services to provide resistance to faking and other forms of response distortion: the Assessment of Individual Motivation, the Navy Computerized Adaptive Personality Scales, and the Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System. These tests represent the transition from Likert to forced-choice formats and from static to computerized adaptive item selection to meet the challenges of large-scale, high-stakes testing environments. For each test, we briefly describe the personality constructs that are assessed, the response format and scoring methods, and selected ongoing research and development efforts. We also highlight the potential of these tests for personnel selection, classification, and diagnostic screening purposes.     

Extreme Outcomes Sway Risky Decisions from Experience

Whether buying stocks or playing the slots, people making real‐world risky decisions often rely on their experiences with the risks and rewards. These decisions, however, do not occur in isolation but are embedded in a rich context of other decisions, outcomes, and experiences. In this paper, we systematically evaluate how the local context of other rewarding outcomes alters risk preferences. Through a series of four experiments on decisions from experience, we provide evidence for an extreme‐outcome rule, whereby people overweight the most extreme outcomes (highest and lowest) in a given context. As a result, people should be more risk seeking for gains than losses, even with equally likely outcomes. Across the experiments, the decision context was varied so that the same outcomes served as the high extreme, low extreme, or neither. As predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains, but only when the risky option potentially led to the high‐extreme outcome. Similarly, people were more risk averse for relative losses, but only when the risky option potentially led to the low‐extreme outcome. We conclude that in risky decisions from experience, the biggest wins and the biggest losses seem to matter more than they should. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

多级评分模型下的题库结构对CAT的影响分析

在多级评分模型下,项目的难度参数或步骤参数有多个,在对多级评分模型进行选题时,通常对项目的多个难度参数用一个综合的指标来概括.当对每个项目的难度参数进行有效的综合后,综合后的难度参数分布发生了改变,这时如果增加适量的平均难度较难或较易的项目进入题库,测验的精度和项目的曝光率都有一定的改善.     

大学生的基本兴趣及其与专业承诺的关系

该研究调查了1304名来自18个不同专业领域的大学生的基本兴趣和专业承诺,并用回归法分析了特定基本兴趣与专业承诺之间的关系.结果发现：（1）大学生的31种基本兴趣在二维空间中呈现近似圆形的排列,且基本兴趣结构上的性别差异不明显;（2）在14个专业领域内大学生的特定基本兴趣能显著预测其专业承诺,所解释的变异量平均为20％,接近中等水平的效果大小;（3）在不同专业领域内基本兴趣对专业承诺的影响效果大小有所不同.     

Driving speed choice: The role of conscious monitoring and control (reinvestment) when driving

This study aimed to examine the role of reinvestment - the propensity to consciously monitor and control actions (movement specific reinvestment) and to consciously monitor and evaluate decision making processes (Decision specific reinvestment) while driving in everyday risky scenarios. The study also aimed to evaluate the association between reinvestment and previously validated driver attitude measures. Fifty one participants completed a series of questionnaires (Driving Self-Efficacy Scale, Driver Attitude Questionnaire, Movement Specific Reinvestment Scale, Decision Specific Reinvestment Scale) after which they completed a test phase in a driving simulator. In the test phase, driving scenarios included roads with different markings (i.e., double yellow, wide centrelines, wire rope barriers, Audio Tactile Profiled markings) and alerting scenarios (i.e., police car present, high crash risk area sign, reduced speed zone). Results revealed that on risky roads (wide centrelines), participants with a high propensity for decision specific reinvestment drove slower than those with a low propensity. Driver experience, attitudes towards speeding and scores on the Decision Reinvestment subscale of the Decision Specific Reinvestment Scale significantly predicted speed choice. More experienced participants with higher scores on the Decision Reinvestment subscale were more likely to drive slower and participants with worse attitudes towards speeding were likely to drive faster. Participants with a low propensity for movement specific reinvestment (specifically, Movement Self-Consciousness) reduced their speed to a greater extent than those with a high propensity when driving in the police car scenario. There was some evidence to suggest that high decision specific and movement specific reinvesters were more likely to be involved in crashes and receive driving infringements. The current study is the first to demonstrate a significant relationship between reinvestment and driving. The implications of these findings for road safety are discussed.