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31.
Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them. 相似文献
32.
This longitudinal study assessed the power of the Occupational Scales (OSs) of the Strong Interest Inventory to predict the participants’ occupations 12 years after Time 1 testing, 8 years after Time 2 testing, and concurrently at Time 3. Results indicated that OS scores predicted occupational membership at a level substantially higher than chance at all three points in time. Eight-year and concurrent prediction hit rates were not significantly different from each other but were significantly higher than 12-year hit rates. No significant gender differences were found, and OSs predicted membership equally well for occupations that corresponded directly to those represented on the SII profile and occupations indirectly represented on the inventory. These findings are important for informing counseling practice and providing validity evidence for SII scale scores. 相似文献
33.
This research describes and evaluates a workshop aimed at promoting career specialty choice and examines relationships between measured career specialty interests, work values, and personality type. Three consecutive classes of second-year medical students (N = 161) participated in a two-session specialty choice workshop. All participants in the study rated the usefulness of the workshop and reported their level of specialty choice certainty and satisfaction. They also responded to measures of medical specialty preference, work values, and personality type. Results indicated two distinct student subgroups of career-specialty-decided and -undecided students. The former subgroup evidenced more stability and certainty of specialty choice as well satisfaction with their choice. Both groups of students reported having benefited from the workshop. Significant gender differences in the relationships between scores on a measure of medical specialty preference and scores on measures of work values and personality emerged. Implications are discussed in terms of the differential career counseling needs of students either decided or undecided about their career specialty choices. 相似文献
34.
Richard A. Lippa 《Sex roles》2005,53(1-2):43-55
To study how people weight information when judging their own and others’ masculinity–femininity (M–F), I asked 170 male and 205 female participants to rate themselves and their best friends on M–F, instrumentality, expressiveness, and gender-typed hobby preferences. Also, each participant judged the M–F of eight fictitious women (or men) described as possessing low or high instrumentality, low or high expressiveness, and hobbies typical of men or women. Regression analyses showed that gender-typed hobby preferences predicted M–F ratings of self and friends more strongly than instrumentality or expressiveness did. Similarly, analyses of participants’ judgments of fictitious people showed that participants weighted gender-typed hobbies more strongly than instrumentality and expressiveness when judging targets’ M–F. All results converged to show that lay people’s judgments of M–F are based more on information about gender-typed interests than on information about instrumentality or expressiveness. 相似文献
35.
Arthur Peacocke 《Zygon》2004,39(2):413-429
Abstract. The present malaise of religion—and of theology, its intellectual formulation—in Western society is analyzed, with some personal references, especially with respect to its history in the United Kingdom and the United States. The need for a more open theology that takes account of scientific perspectives is urged. An indication of the understandings of God and of God's relation to the world which result from an exploration starting from scientific perspectives is expounded together with their fruitful relation to some traditional themes. The implications of this for the future of theology are suggested, not least in relation to the new phase, beginning in 2003, of the development of the Zygon Center for Religion and Science. In a concluding reflection the hope is expressed that the shared global experience and perspectives generated by the sciences might form a more common and acceptable starting point than hitherto for the exploration towards God of the seekers of many religious traditions and of none. 相似文献
36.
Individual coping is identified as an important factor in relation to health and well-being. Although several coping scales have been developed, key terms of coping such as nature and a number of primary and secondary factors (dimensions) are obscure. Coping scales, such as those that have been developed through exploratory factor analysis (EFA), have been criticized for poor psychometric properties, yet the critique so far does not evaluate development of the scales against best test-theoretical practice. The present study reviews six adolescent coping scales against ten detailed psychometric criteria in relation to statistical choices throughout the process of scale development. All six scales measured poorly on several criteria. Best practice had not been followed throughout their development and they suffered serious psychometric limitations. These findings indicate that there still is empirical research to be pursued in search of latent constructs and possible dimensions of coping through the implementation of EFA. 相似文献
37.
Nancy Cartwright relies upon an inference pattern known as inference to the best causal explanation (IBCE) to support a limited
form of entity realism, according to which we are warranted in believing in entities that purportively cause observable effects.
IBCE, as usually understood, is valid, even though all other forms of inference to the best explanation (IBE) are usually
understood to be invalid. We argue that IBCE and IBE are in the same boat with respect to their ability to support realist
conclusions. Either rule can be interpreted as valid, this is a matter of semantic convention. However, doing so deprives
the rule of the empirical content the realist needs, requiring the realist to find independent warrant for a strong (theoretical
or causal) premise. We then examine the proposed means of obtaining this warrant, and find them as inadequate in the case
of IBCE as they are in the case of IBE. 相似文献
38.
G. Schurz 《Synthese》2008,164(2):201-234
This article describes abductions as special patterns of inference to the best explanation whose structure determines a particularly promising abductive conjecture (conclusion) and thus serves as an abductive search strategy (Sect. 1). A classification of different patterns of abduction is provided which intends to be as complete as possible (Sect. 2). An important distinction is that between selective abductions, which choose an optimal candidate from given multitude of possible explanations (Sects. 3–4), and creative abductions, which introduce new theoretical models or concepts (Sects. 5–7). While selective abduction has dominated the literature,
creative abductions are rarely discussed, although they are essential in science. The article introduces several kinds of
creative abductions, such as theoretical model abduction, common cause abduction and statistical factor analysis, and illustrates them by various real case examples. It is suggested to demarcate scientifically fruitful abductions from
purely speculative abductions by the criterion of causal unification (Sect. 7.1). 相似文献
39.
在医疗过程中,无法取得患者的同意时,通常由他人代其做出同意。但是,代为同意人在代为做出同意时,必须以患者本人的最佳利益为原则。在判断患者的最佳利益时,可以借鉴英国《心智能力法2005》的规定,通过对诸因素的评估,来综合决定何谓患者的最佳利益。我国在制订和修改代为同意的相关规定时,应该考虑如何借鉴英国的规定,制订符合我国国情的代为同意制度。 相似文献
40.
医药回扣是最大的医患利益冲突 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
雷锦程 《医学与哲学(人文社会医学版)》2006,27(10):15-18
分析医患利益冲突如何影响医生的临床决策,并在此基础上探讨如何处理医患利益冲突。医患利益冲突影响医生临床决策有两个环节,其一是影响其专业判断,其二是影响其医疗决定。医药回扣具备商业贿赂的典型特征。医药回扣是最大的医患利益冲突。 相似文献