An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

心理学视野下的社会变迁研究：研究设计与分析方法

近年来,社会变迁导致的文化、心理与行为变化及其相互建构已经成为心理学的研究热点。社会变迁研究通常涉及和变迁相关的时间效应、时代效应以及和变迁无关的年龄效应。在考察变迁趋势及其影响因素时,常用的研究设计有跨时间比较、跨代际比较、跨地区比较(历史重构)等方法;常用的分析方法有传统的相关和回归分析和现代的时间序列分析(比如交叉滞后相关和格兰杰因果检验)等。由于每一种设计都有其优点和不足,在具体研究中,研究者要根据研究的问题和可操作性选择合适的方法;如果可能,最好同时采用多种方法,以寻求基于不同方法的聚合证据。     

错认总比错过好——面孔视错觉的发生机制及其应用

面孔视错觉现象表现为个体从其他事物中感知到并不存在的面孔。面孔视错觉要素已广泛应用于艺术、广告及商品中,起到吸引注意、促进消费的作用。同时,先前的研究通过采用各种范式,发现患者在面孔视错觉的产生上同常人的差异,以及视错觉与视幻觉之间的联系。根据视觉加工通路的不同,相关范式可分为视错觉监测范式,以及视错觉辨认范式。前者侧重于基于提取的类面孔特征所做出的快速预测,后者侧重于主观期望引导个体对物体特征的提取,两者最终均会影响到后续的认知判断。日后研究可从面孔视错觉的发生机制出发,结合自上而下和自下而上两种加工通路,为面孔视错觉产生机制提供理论依据,并拓宽该要素在临床诊断及商业广告领域上的应用。     

Against all odds – is a more differentiated view of personality development in emerging adulthood needed? The case of young apprentices

Personality development in emerging adults who do not attend college after high school has been largely overlooked so far. In this study, we investigated personality development in emerging German adults (N_T1 = 1,886, M_ageT1 = 18.01 years, 29% female) undergoing vocational education and training (VET). The trainees were assessed at the start of VET, 1.5 years later, and another 1.5 years after that, just before graduation. Longitudinal latent change score analyses were applied. Bivariate analyses investigated life satisfaction and job strain as social and work‐related aspects that are potentially reciprocally related to personality development. Mean‐level personality changes included increases in neuroticism and decreases in agreeableness and conscientiousness in the first interval. In the second interval, neuroticism decreased and conscientiousness increased. Simultaneously, trainees reported a gradual decrease in extraversion and openness across the 3‐year time span. Personality, especially agreeableness and conscientiousness, emerged as a stronger predictor of changes in job strain and life satisfaction than vice versa. For example, more agreeable and more conscientious trainees subsequently showed increases in life satisfaction. Trainees reporting higher job strain subsequently showed decreases in agreeableness. Trajectories of personality development partly support the maturity principle that has been established in many college student samples.     

Flexible representations in visual working memory and interactions with long‐term learning: Commentary on the special issue

This special issue of the British Journal of Psychology brings together cutting edge research on a range of topics in visual working memory (VWM). In this commentary, we attempt to summarize common themes in current VWM research exemplified in this issue. The articles include several reviews of important topics as well as empirical papers covering three main themes. The first concerns the nature of mental representations of memoranda in the commonly used delayed estimation task, where both fine‐grained and broad categorical details appear to be represented, and their susceptibility to interference. The second concerns interactions between VWM representations, both those that produce individuation of representations and those that create an overarching ensemble structure. Finally, the third main topic concerns the use of VWM during visual search and in the learning of repeated configurations in search displays. The work presented here, and other work in the field, points to a rich interplay between representations in VWM but also between VWM and information in long‐term memory. Opportunities for further investigation are highlighted throughout.     

Transition to market economy promotes individualistic values: Analysing changes in frequencies of Russian words from 1980 to 2008

Google Books Ngram was used to assess changes in frequency of usage in words corresponding to collectivistic and individualistic values in Russia during the time of economic changes. It was found that in many domains transition to market economy was associated with a rise in the use of words corresponding to individualistic values and a decrease in the use of words associated with collectivistic values. In several cases, words corresponding to collectivistic terms were used more often than words corresponding to individualistic values. The results suggest that economic changes lead to a change in values structure, but that individualistic and collectivistic values can co‐exist because of the transitional sate of the Russian society.     

Not all cultural values are created equal: Cultural change in China reexamined through Google books

Given its major transformations in recent decades, China has figured prominently in research on cultural change. Previous research converges in showing a general trend towards individualism in contemporary China while noting that rising individualism tends to coexist with enduring collectivism. To further understand this, we tested whether perceived traditional importance of cultural values would modulate the trajectory of cultural change reflected in word usage frequencies in published books. We re‐analysed Google's Chinese corpus since 1980 based on a broad sample of words associated with individualism–collectivism. We replicated the pattern of rising individualism and declining collectivism among words of modest and low perceived traditional importance. Most important, however, collectivistic words of high perceived traditional importance increased in usage frequencies with time, thus departing from the general trend towards individualism. Overall, our research underscores the role of core culture in cultural maintenance during times of rapid cultural change.     

Afraid of one afraid of all: When threat associations spread across face-types

Fear can be acquired for objects not inherently associated with threat (e.g. birds), and this threat may generalize from prototypical to peripheral category members (e.g. crows vs. penguins). When categorizing people, pervasive stereotypes link Black men to assumed violence and criminality. Faces with Afrocentric features (prototypical) are more often associated with threat and criminality than non-Afrocentric (peripheral) faces regardless of whether the individual is Black or White. In this study, using a priming paradigm, threat associations related to negative racial stereotypes were tested as a vehicle for spreading fear across face-type categories. Results showed more negative than positive judgments for White face targets but only when the prime was primarily non-Afrocentric (i.e. Eurocentric). Black face targets were judged more negatively than positively regardless of prime. This suggests some cognitive processes related to threat generalizations of objects extend to complex social categories.     

Cigarette smoking and personality change across adulthood: Findings from five longitudinal samples

Personality traits are related to cigarette smoking. However, little is known about the link between smoking and change in personality. Therefore, the present study examined whether current cigarette smoking and smoking cessation are associated with personality change across adulthood. Participants (n = 15,572) aged from 20 to 92 years were drawn from five longitudinal cohorts with follow-ups that ranged from 4 to 20 years. Compared to non-smokers, current smokers were more likely to increase on neuroticism and to decline on extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness over time. Compared to the persistent smokers, those who quit had a steeper decline in agreeableness. Cigarette smoking is related to detrimental personality changes across adulthood, and the pattern was not improved by smoking cessation.