La influencia de las creencias causales en la construcción de inferencias predictivas y diagnósticas

Resumen

En este artículo se investiga la habilidad de los sujetos para evaluar el impacto de los datos dentro de un contexto causal. Las investigacion es realizadas sobre el razonamiento humano han mostrado que las teorías causales que las personas poseen sesgan con frecuencia su evaluación de la evidencia. En este experimento se analizan los juicios que emiten los sujetos sobre datos cuando tienen un esquema de razonamiento causal implícito (Cheng y Holyoak, 1985; Kuhn, Amsel y O'Loughlin, 1988) en contextos predictivos y diagnósticos (o abductivos). Para ello, se manipuló el tipo de información presentada a los sujetos, presentá ndole, a un grupo, datos consistentes con sus creencias causales previas y, a otro, datos inconsistentes con sus creencias causales. Los resultados obtenidos señalan que las teorías implícitas de los sujetos no fueron substancialmente modificadas por las condiciones experimentales, aunque sí fueron sensibles a la evidencia. Se discuten estos resultados desde un modelo de interacción creencias causales y datos en el ámbito de las inferencias predictivas y diagnósticas.     

A Kantian-Brandomian View of Concepts and The Problem of a Regress of Norms

ABSTRACT

According to the Kantian-Brandomian view of concepts, we can understand concepts in terms of norms or rules that bind those who apply them, and the application of a concept requires that the concept-user be sensitive to the norms governing its application. But this view faces some serious objections. In particular, according to Rosen, Glüer and Wikforss, this view leads to a vicious regress of norms. The purpose of this paper is to defend a version of the Kantian-Brandomian view of concepts against this objection. I argue that we can deal with this problem along the lines of a coherentist account of justification.     

行为决策中的基线比例忽略：心理机制与影响因素

基线比例忽略是指个体进行决策和判断时不能充分利用或者忽略基线比例而偏好新信息的现象。该现象普遍存在于日常行为与决策的许多领域,尤其显著表现在临床医疗领域,因此对这一现象的研究具有重要的应用价值。目前,基线比例忽略的心理机制主要有双加工理论和因果贝叶斯框架等。基线比例忽略的影响因素主要包括认知能力、年龄、基线比例的表述形式等。未来的研究需要从基线比例忽略的神经机制、影响因素以及应用研究的拓展等方面着手。     

Emergentism and supervenience physicalism

I argue that it is intuitive and useful to think about composition in the light of the familiar functionalist distinction between role and occupant. This involves factoring the standard notion of parthood into two related notions: being a parthood slot and occupying a parthood slot. One thing is part of another just in case it fills one of that thing's parthood slots. This move opens room to rethink mereology in various ways, and, in particular, to see the mereological structure of a composite as potentially outreaching the individual entities that are its parts. I sketch one formal system that allows things to have individual entities as parts multiple times over. This is particularly useful to David Armstrong, given Lewis's charge that his structural universals must do exactly that. I close by reflecting upon the nature and point of formal mereology.     

Intentional action first

The paper motivates a novel research programme in the philosophy of action parallel to the ‘Knowledge First’ programme in epistemology. It is argued that much of the grounds for abandoning the quest for a reductive analysis of knowledge in favour of the Knowledge First alternative is mirrored in the case of intentional action, inviting the hypothesis that intentional action is also, like knowledge, metaphysically basic. The paper goes on to demonstrate the sort of explanatory contribution that intentional action can make once it is no longer taken to be a target for reductive analysis, in explaining other, non-intentional kinds of action and voluntariness.     

学前儿童用“人为不介入原理”区分生物、非生物能力的发展

本研究采用访谈法,考查4～6岁儿童对生物的“人为不介入原理”的理解。研究结果表明：1．学前儿童没有表现出明显的“泛灵论”倾向。2．学前儿童对“人为不介入原理”的理解随年龄增长而呈现提高趋势,多数6岁儿童已经能够利用这一原理区分生物和非生物。3．学前儿童对不同领域刺激物的认知表现出不平衡性,对动物的认知优先发展,植物次之,对人造物认知的发展落后于对生物认知的发展。4．学前儿童表现出初步的分类概念。     

The dark side of cognitive illusions: When an illusory belief interferes with the acquisition of evidence‐based knowledge

Cognitive illusions are often associated with mental health and well‐being. However, they are not without risk. This research shows they can interfere with the acquisition of evidence‐based knowledge. During the first phase of the experiment, one group of participants was induced to develop a strong illusion that a placebo medicine was effective to treat a fictitious disease, whereas another group was induced to develop a weak illusion. Then, in Phase 2, both groups observed fictitious patients who always took the bogus treatment simultaneously with a second treatment which was effective. Our results showed that the group who developed the strong illusion about the effectiveness of the bogus treatment during Phase 1 had more difficulties in learning during Phase 2 that the added treatment was effective.     

Physiological Arousal and Political Beliefs

It is by now well known that political attitudes can be affected by emotions. Most earlier studies have focused on emotions generated by some political event (e.g., terrorism or increased immigration). However, the methods used in previous efforts have made it difficult to untangle the various causal pathways that might link emotions to political beliefs. In contrast, we focus on emotions incidental (i.e., irrelevant) to the decision process, allowing us to cleanly trace and estimate the effect of experimentally induced anxiety on political beliefs. Further, we build upon innovative new work that links physiological reactivity (Hatemi, McDermott, Eaves, Kendler, & Neale, 2013; Oxley et al., 2008a) to attitudes by using skin conductance reactivity as a measure of emotional arousal. We found that anxiety—generated by a video stimulus—significantly affected physiological arousal as measured by tonic skin‐conductance levels, and that higher physiological reactivity predicted more anti‐immigration attitudes. We show that physiological reactivity mediated the relationship between anxiety and political attitudes.     

记叙文中因果连贯对空间情境模型回溯建构的促进

采用移动窗口阅读技术探讨记叙文理解中因果关系对于空间信息加工的作用。实验1和2的自变量是故事中空间信息与故事结果的因果关系,采用相关样本t检验对不同条件下探测词的反应时进行统计分析,结果表明因果关系不仅会影响文本明确提及的空间信息的加工而且能够促进隐含的空间关系建构情境模型。实验3的自变量是故事中物体与位置词的空间关系,采用相关样本t检验对不同条件下位置探测词的反应时进行统计分析,结果进一步表明空间情境模型是读者为保持故事因果连贯回溯建构的而不是在阅读进程中的实时建构。实验4中空间关系的复杂程度增大,结果发现当故事中空间信息的文本距离较远时即使有保持因果连贯的需要,读者仍无法回溯建构空间模型。     

因果变化模式与因果联结强度在幼儿因果推理中的作用

对93名幼儿进行了五种因果变化模式的因果推理题目的测试。结果表明:(1)在不同的因果变化模式下,被试进行因果推理的成绩存在差异,且在对于这五类题目的掌握上具有一定的顺序。(2)被试在同样因果变化模式题目的表现之间具有较高的相似性,而在因果联结强度相同的题目之间则具有显著的差异。(3)被试对于各题目回答的正确率并不随原因与结果联结次数的增多而提高。(4)即使是在观察到的刺激完全一致的情况下,被试的回答仍会因因果变化模式的差异及主试对于题目解释的不同而存在差别。